Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Prince George-Mackenzie

Prediction Changed
2017-01-17 20:24:08

Constituency Profile



Prince George-Mackenzie
Hon. Mike Morris

Population (2014):46894
Deviation from average:-11.70%
Geographical Area:20511 sq km
2013 Election Result
Prince George-Mackenzie
Mike Morris
Bobby Deepak
Karen McDowell
Terry Rysz
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


17 03 11 T.C.
The last time BC NDP won a Prince George area riding was 21 years ago back in 1996. Back then, the BC NDP was pro-resource development. Since then and especially since the 2013 election with the ?Kinder Morgan Surprise?, the BC NDP has moved to more of an anti-resource development, anti-fossil fuel/climate change stance. This stance seems geared toward SW BC voters - not interior BC voters who are mostly resource dependent.
Prince George is the hub/service centre of northern central interior BC - forestry, mining, proposed natural gas pipelines to LNG terminals on the NW BC coast, etc., and the BC Liberals hold pro-resource development stances.
Back in July, 2016, 2013 BC NDP candidate herein, Bobby Deepak (also local BC NDP constituency president) alluded that he would not run again and that BC NDP was actively looking for candidates. Apparently no other candidates stepped forward so Bobby Deepak stepped in again and was acclaimed as the 2017 BC NDP candidate. A signal right there that the BC NDP does not even seem to think that they will win this seat in 2017.
The BC Liberal incumbent won by a 21% margin in 2013. In addition, the BCCP received 4.5% here in 2013, which likely will flow to the BC Liberals as the BCCP is leaderless, insolvent, involved with in-fighting, and has no candidates nominated. Safe BC Liberal seat in 2017.
17 03 07 South Islander
I visited this riding about a week before the last election. At the time, I was expecting an NDP landslide and for the Liberals to lose either or both of the PG seats. Locals I talked to who planned to vote NDP seemed confident that the NDP didn't have a chance at either riding. And they were right. Newcomer Mike Morris held the riding by over 21%. Now with the incumbency advantage, I can't see him losing this unless the BC Liberals implode. This just isn't a bellwether anymore.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
Prince George is a more favourable region for the NDP but the last time they won either of these seats they formed the Government and current polling suggests they have improved a tiny bit from last time but it's not enough to win this seat.

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