Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Prince George-Valemount

Prediction Changed
2017-01-17 20:24:19

Constituency Profile



Bond, Shirley

Prince George-Valemount
Hon. Shirley Bond

Population (2014):48267
Deviation from average:-9.10%
Geographical Area:31467 sq km
2013 Election Result
Prince George-Valemount
Shirley Bond*
Sherry Ogasawara
Nathan Giede
Donald A Roberts
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


17 03 11 T.C.
The last time BC NDP won a Prince George area riding was 21 years ago back in 1996. Back then, the BC NDP was pro-resource development. Since then and especially since the 2013 election with the ?Kinder Morgan Surprise?, the BC NDP has moved to more of an anti-resource development, anti-fossil fuel/climate change stance. This stance seems geared toward SW BC voters - not interior BC voters who are mostly resource dependent.
Prince George is the hub/service centre of northern central interior BC - forestry, mining, proposed natural gas pipelines to LNG terminals on the NW BC coast, etc., and the BC Liberals hold pro-resource development stances.
The BC Liberal incumbent won by a 21% margin in 2013. In addition, the BCCP received 5.6% here in 2013, which likely will flow to the BC Liberals as the BCCP is leaderless, insolvent, involved with in-fighting, and has no candidates nominated. Safe BC Liberal seat in 2017 esp. with Shirley Bond as incumbent.
17 03 07 South Islander
Given that experienced cabinet minister Shirley Bond held this riding by over 21% in 2013, I can't see her losing this time unless the BC Liberals completely collapse.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
Prince George is a more favourable region for the NDP but the last time they won either of these seats they formed the Government and current polling suggests they have improved a tiny bit from last time but it's not enough to win this seat. This is a less Conservative seat then the Mackenzie riding next door but this is Shirley Bond's seat

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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
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