Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Saanich South

Prediction Changed
2017-01-17 20:24:49

Constituency Profile



Calder, David

McLean, Andrew Paul

Neufeld, Mark

Pattee, Richard Percival

Popham, Lana

Saanich South
Lana Popham

Population (2014):51661
Deviation from average:-2.70%
Geographical Area:91 sq km
2013 Election Result
Saanich South
Lana Popham*
Rishi Sharma
Branko Mustafovic
Joshua Galbraith
Peter Kappel
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 Miles Lunn
The BC Liberals have Dave Calder who is a former Olympic rower so should help. Also with the Greens strong in the Greater Victoria area it will depend a lot on Green strength. If the Greens do well they should split the vote enough for the BC Liberals to win, but if they do poorly the NDP should hold this.
06/05/2017 Saanich resident
Popham should be able to retain her seat here, despite the best efforts from the Green challenger.
29/04/2017 Arm Chair Observer
I think the Greens can get enough votes here to edge out the NDP by a hundred or so votes. The local paper (Times Colonist) had a front page ad for local green candidates on Saturday, which makes me think they have some inside polling that they are doing well in this riding and a few others on the South Island. I think the soft liberal vote will vote Green for the environment and the Greens will take it.
21/04/2017 South Islander
I'm starting to think Calder is most likely to win. Green tide will carry Neufeld higher than the candidate last time, but his MLK speech and Popham's environmental cred will probably prevent him from winning. The BCL finished with 35% last time despite nominating a candidate at the last minute and not really putting in any effort. With a young, moderate Olympian as the candidate and a real campaign, I think they can get above 40%. Popham, who won under 46%, doesn't need to bleed that many votes to the surging Greens to find herself behind the BCLs (or Greens). If the MLK speech did little damage and the Greens are surging at the expense of both the NDP and BCLs, Neufeld might still be able to pull it off.
The NDP is still below 40% in BC and, amazingly, on the Island, which leads me to believe that they are in big trouble. Horgan's debate performance makes me think he can't turn this around. Despite her moderate appeal, Popham is far from safe. The list of popular, established, supposedly safe NDP MLAs and MPs who lost in the past 4 years is staggering (18-year MLA Harry Lali, NS Premier Darrell Dexter, 24-year incumbent ON MPP and former cabinet minister Rosario Marchese, 18-year incumbent MPs Peter Stoffer and Pat Martin, MP Jack Harris who won with 71% in the prior election, rising star MPs Megan Leslie and Paul Dewar, SK NDP Leader Cam Broten, and 17-year MB Cabinet Minister and 35-year incumbent MLA Steve Ashton). Her loss might seem unlikely based on past performance, but she would be in very good company.
16/04/2017 JoshMartini007
With support growing for the Greens I suspect this riding will come into question. Relative to the other ridings in the Greater Victoria area the Greens did poorly in 2013, but nevertheless I see them increasing their percentage and given they are more likely to take votes away from the NDP than the Liberals that could decrease the gap and potentially cause the Liberals to sneak through.
17 03 17 joe s
From July 2013 to Jan 2015 Lana Popham spent $26,101.53 in airfare expenses.
During the same time, NDP Robin Austin of the Skeena riding, based in Terrace, B.C. spent $25,519.61 in airfare expense.
I have tried everything to get an answer as to why her air travel is so high as her home riding is Saanich, next door to the legislature where as Robin Austin home riding is Skeena.
She is the NDP agriculture critic, but surely there can't be that many out of town functions to attend to re agriculture.
Where s she flying to? Is she being honest in her claims or flying to areas of personal nature.
17 03 08 South Islander
If Popham, an environmentalist and ideological moderate, decided to run for the Greens, she would win this riding easily. But I happen to think that with the NDP only polling at 38% this far out from an election, they will lose seats after a campaign. This district was extremely close in 2005 and 2009; in 2013, the BC Liberals thought they had no chance, nominated a candidate last-minute, and still only finished only 10% behind. Depending on how the province-wide campaigns go for the NDP, Greens and BC Liberals and how they allocate their resources on the South Island, any of them have a shot at this riding.
17 01 12 Bernard von Schulmann
Lana Popham is personally very popular, no danger of her losing

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