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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Surrey-Green Timbers


Prediction Changed
2017-01-08 23:24:17
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Aujla, Saira

Bajwa, Vikram

Locke, Brenda Joy

Moti, Kanwaljit Singh

Singh, Rachna

Incumbent:
Surrey-Green Timbers
Sue Hammell

Reference:
Population (2014):58816
Deviation from average:10.70%
Geographical Area:18 sq km
2013 Election Result
Surrey-Green Timbers
Sue Hammell*
938658.06%
Amrik Tung
558134.52%
Richard Hosein
6554.05%
Lisa Maharaj
4442.75%
Harjit Singh Heir
1010.62%
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


 

10/04/2017 South Islander
207.6.126.250
Sue Hammell, who represented this district for 22 years, isn't running again. Her winning margins since her defeat were 29%, 49% and 24%. Brenda Locke, the only person to interrupt Hammell's reign, is running for the open seat she held between 2001-2005. I think this is more of a case of Locke being a good party soldier than making a serious play to retake a district that seems to tilt heavily NDP. It would be hard for the BCL to justify using resources here when they have Fassbender and Virk to defend and want to hold the open Panorama district against Jinny Sims. However, the degree to which Hammell boosted the NDP is unknown because she is the only NDP candidate that has ever appeared on the ballot. This election, I expect Locke to finish within 20% of Singh, who will still comfortably hold this district. Only if the NDP collapse at the expense of the Greens might Locke have an outside chance here.
17 01 07 Brian J
64.114.70.133
Sue Hammell isn't running again, but this riding should stick to the BCNDP regardless. Since 1991, it's been solid NDP except from 2001-2005. Surrey overall is fertile ground for Team Horgan this May, so it would take a significant shift in the winds for any of the BCNDP-won seats in Surrey from 2013 to switch sides - incumbent or no.



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