Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Surrey-Green Timbers

Prediction Changed
2017-01-08 23:24:17

Constituency Profile



Aujla, Saira

Bajwa, Vikram

Locke, Brenda Joy

Moti, Kanwaljit Singh

Singh, Rachna

Surrey-Green Timbers
Sue Hammell

Population (2014):58816
Deviation from average:10.70%
Geographical Area:18 sq km
2013 Election Result
Surrey-Green Timbers
Sue Hammell*
Amrik Tung
Richard Hosein
Lisa Maharaj
Harjit Singh Heir
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


10/04/2017 South Islander
Sue Hammell, who represented this district for 22 years, isn't running again. Her winning margins since her defeat were 29%, 49% and 24%. Brenda Locke, the only person to interrupt Hammell's reign, is running for the open seat she held between 2001-2005. I think this is more of a case of Locke being a good party soldier than making a serious play to retake a district that seems to tilt heavily NDP. It would be hard for the BCL to justify using resources here when they have Fassbender and Virk to defend and want to hold the open Panorama district against Jinny Sims. However, the degree to which Hammell boosted the NDP is unknown because she is the only NDP candidate that has ever appeared on the ballot. This election, I expect Locke to finish within 20% of Singh, who will still comfortably hold this district. Only if the NDP collapse at the expense of the Greens might Locke have an outside chance here.
17 01 07 Brian J
Sue Hammell isn't running again, but this riding should stick to the BCNDP regardless. Since 1991, it's been solid NDP except from 2001-2005. Surrey overall is fertile ground for Team Horgan this May, so it would take a significant shift in the winds for any of the BCNDP-won seats in Surrey from 2013 to switch sides - incumbent or no.

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