Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-05-08 11:14:19

Constituency Profile



Galenzoski, Liz

Greer, Veronica Laurel

Sandhar, Puneet

Sims, Jinny

Marvin Hunt

Population (2014):60128
Deviation from average:13.20%
Geographical Area:24 sq km
2013 Election Result
Marvin Hunt
Amrik Mahil
Sara Sharma
Kevin Rakhra
Ali Zaidi
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


10/04/2017 AA
The boundaries and demographics of this riding favor the BC Liberals. Most of the area strongly voted BC Liberal in the last election, without them doing a serious campaign in this riding.
Jinny Sims was also the federal candidate in half of the riding, which she lost by a substantial margin, in fact, she lost all the polls that overlap in the Surrey-Panorama.
Also, Puneet Sandhar is a very strong candidate who has deep connections to the riding and the BC Liberal Party. Christy Clark specifically asked her to run in this riding, because of her strength in this riding.
22/03/2017 South Islander
'While the B.C. Liberals won this seat by 19.7 per cent, most of their votes came from the southern half of the riding. But polling stations now in the riding gave the Liberals a 9.1 per cent victory over the NDP.' (CBC) Well, the actual margin was 18.55%, so there's an error with at least one of the CBC's numbers, but their redistributed margin is a bit more generous than T.C.'s.
Either way, the BCL have a solid candidate in Puneet Sandhar and a natural partisan advantage in the new district. The NDP are running Jinny Sims, who is well-known but not necessarily popular. She lost Provincial NDP nomination in Vancouver Kensington to Mable Elmore in 2009. She beat Sukh Dhaliwal in Newton-North Delta during the 2011 Liberal meltdown by 903 votes, then lost the new federal Surrey-Newton district 2015 by 13,365 votes or 29.9%. The 11,604 vote total she won in the federal Surrey Newton district - which had nearly twice the population of Panorama and included territory much more favourable to the NDP - might not even be enough to win here. This essentially means that she needs to convince more than twice as many voters to elect her provincially as voted to reelect her federally in 2015. Even then, about half of the new Panorama district is made up of portions of South Surrey-White Rock, Fleetwood-Port Kells and Cloverdale-Langley City, where the NDP only averaged about 16%.
Despite her name recognition and some LPC-BCNDP crossover, it seems unlikely that she will carry Panorama unless the NDP are headed for a big win.
17 01 08 T.C.
The riding of Surrey-Panorama certainly has had major boundary changes made to same:
1 Southern Surrey (across the farmland flats) has been lopped off and forms part of the new Surrey South riding - basically ?Greater White Rock? - which trends strongly BC Liberal.
2. In the E corner of the riding, an addition: the blocks between 152nd Ave./144th Ave. and between the former northern boundary of 72nd Ave. north to 76th Ave., which trends BC NDP.
The 2013 transposed results for new riding boundaries:
BC Libera: 49.2%
BC NDP: 42.5%
BCCP: 3.6%
BCC Green: 4.2%
With new riding boundaries, the margin between the BC Liberals and BC NDP has shrunk to under 7%. OTOH, the BCCP is unlikely to run here in 2017 and their 3.6% is likely to go BC Liberal in 2017 providing a bit of a cushion .Furthermore, the BC Green vote will likely increase here in 2017 as well, which will likely take more net 2013 BC NDP votes.
Moreover, a residential building boom has been going on within the new riding boundaries and continues unabated:
1. Infill SDs in Panorama Ridge;
2. New residential subdivision development east of KGH/south of Hwy 10;
3. New residential subdivisions west of KGH/north of Hwy 10;
4. Most dramatic residential development has been just east of KGH/north of Hwy 10 northward to 64th Ave and past. A phenomenal amount of new SFD subdivisions/new townhouse developments thereto;
l of these new owner/occupiers, since 2013, are much more likely to trend BC Liberal in their voting intentions in 2017.
PS. using the 2015 federal elections, the new provincial riding boundaries of Panorama-Ridge overlapped 4 separate federal ridings. The federal Liberals won all polling stations therein mostly by large majorities. The federal CPC won 4 polling stations while the fed NDP won none. OTOH, both the fed CPC and NDP traded 2nd place finishes mostly quite far ba...
17 01 05 Brian J
Former one-term MP Jinny Sims running in this new riding for the BCNDP. With education funding being one of the top election issues in May, and a former MP with a significant base of support running against no Liberal incumbent, I see Jinny returning to elected politics and winning here.

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