Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-03-25 09:19:29

Constituency Profile



Boutin, Louise

Doyle, Joey

Garfinkel, Gabe

Heyman, George

George Heyman

Population (2014):59701
Deviation from average:12.40%
Geographical Area:9 sq km
2013 Election Result
George Heyman
Margaret MacDiarmid*
Matthew Pedley
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


21/04/2017 Proud BCer
A closely fought nomination for the BC Liberals resulted in staffer Gabe Garfinkel winning the nomination over city councillor Elizabeth Ball. Although incumbent NDP MLA George Heyman won this seat by a close margin in 2013, he is a strong performer in the NDP caucus and is likely senior cabinet material. That, along with affordable housing being a vital issue here, should allow him to return to the legislature by a safe margin.
23/03/2017 Crystal Ball
With NDP currently polling at an 8 point lead in Vancouver and a popular incumbent there is very little chance that this riding will flip Liberal. Also, Liberal candidate is unknown.
17 03 06 South Islander
I lived in this riding for the first half of Heyman's term, and I don't recall hearing or seeing anything from him. I'm not sure that enough voters know or care who he is for him to have much of an incumbency advantage.
This is ultimately a swing district in an election that the NDP seems unlikely to win, given that they are polling at levels lower than their 2013 defeat and facing an opponent capable of erasing a massive deficit over the course of a campaign. Pipelines may save the NDP in the city, but they may end up creating a vote-split with the increasingly visible and viable Greens. Definitely TCTC.
17 01 29 T.C.
During the 2005, 2009, and 2013 BC elections, the winning margin here was between 3% - 5%. IOW, Vancouver-Fairview is a marginal swing seat. To declare this type of seat this early is foolhardy IMHO.
17 01 21 Pundit79
George Heyman put in a very strong campaign against the incumbent Minister last election. Another strong campaign will get him re-elected in May.

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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
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