Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-01-17 20:25:28

Constituency Profile



Chan Logan, Kim Jee

Dhillon, Ramanjit Kaur

Elmore, Mable

Rear, Simon Alexander

Mable Elmore

Population (2014):61250
Deviation from average:15.30%
Geographical Area:9 sq km
2013 Election Result
Mable Elmore*
Gabby Kalaw
Chris Fjell
Raj Gupta
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


21/04/2017 Proud BCer
Kim Chan Logan was a strong pick for the BC Liberals in this riding, but Kensington is becoming safe NDP territory and incumbent MLA Mable Elmore should cruise to re-election.
17 03 09 South Islander
Under the right conditions, the BCL could win this district. Elmore is a bit polarizing. In 2013, she won by only 13%, improving on her 2009 margin by only 1%. Despite it being her first election as an incumbent, it was the least improved margin for the NDP of any riding in the city. Since then, Elmore ran for and lost the federal NDP nomination for Vancouver East, which contains absolutely none of Kensington, to popular then-MLA Jenny Kwan whose Mount Pleasant district is mostly contained in Van-East. In a cakewalk it doesn't matter, but a failed attempt to run federally for other constituents is ultimately a liability. If the campaign really goes sideways for the NDP, this seat could be a surprise. But right now, it looks like an NDP hold.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
Except for the 2001 BC Liberal Landslide this seat has always gone for the NDP and I don't think it's about to change.
17 01 12 Bernard von Schulmann
Long term safe NDP seat

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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
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