Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Victoria-Beacon Hill

Prediction Changed
2017-05-04 21:37:52

Constituency Profile



Bill, Karen

Harris, Kalen

James, Carole

Lowe, Art

Reichert, Jordan

Shebib, David

Victoria-Beacon Hill
Carole James

Population (2014):54707
Deviation from average:3.00%
Geographical Area:90 sq km
2013 Election Result
Victoria-Beacon Hill
Carole James*
Jane Sterk
Karen Bill
John Shaw
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 Miles Lunn
Even with the Greens as strong as they are, last time they had their leader whereas this time they have a no name candidate so Carole James with her high profile should hold this. Interestingly enough this might be the worst BC Liberal showing as I suspect many BC Liberals will strategically vote Greens.
02/05/2017 Poll Hound
I would normally say that the NDP would win win this riding comfortably. This time however I wonder. I have talked to exactly 29 people in this riding including 5 co-workers and 26 of them are voting GREEN. Not large enough to be scientific I know, but I wonder?
02/05/2017 Dr. Sartor
This is one of the safest NDP ridings in the province. The Liberal candidate is doomed to finish a distant third, meaning that anti-Liberal strategic voting is unnecessary. Though Kalen Harris of the Greens will have a strong result, it would be a shocker if Carole James were defeated.
29/04/2017 Arm Chair Observer
Carol James is very popular in this riding and very visible. The Green candidate is an unknown and has no previous political campaign experience. Lots of BCGEU volunteers coming in and out of downtown campaign headquarters and on the street in James Bay. The Greens will do well here but Carol will likely increase her percentage of votes and win easily.
29/04/2017 hay sting
The Greens will almost definitely capture several more ridings on the south island, as I have predicted elsewhere. I don't think the dynamics locally here add up to a Carole James loss, though it will no doubt be much, much closer last time. A Green gain wouldn't be an absolute shocker, but, even the crassest partisans should admit that there is *some* incumbency advantage here that is not at play elsewhere.
26/04/2017 South Islander
@Lawrence: I don't know what specific observations your assertion that Carole James is some sort of esteemed figure like Dion or Joe Clark is based on. Regardless, Joe Clark is persona non grata with the CPCs and barely won his seat for the PCs in 2000. Dion underperformed post leadership, if you look at his 2008, 2011 and 2015 results and compare them to the party's results overall. And there's a laundry list of esteemed NDP MPs and MLAs, including former leaders, who have lost their seats in the last 6 years - see my post below.
27/04/2017 caveat emptor
Carole James is not under serious threat here. The Greens didn't come close last time with their leader in this riding. The current Green candidate has virtually no profile. Unless their is a truly epic defeat of the NDP this riding remains safe for the NDP.
Recall that this area was wrongly called for the Greens in the 2015 Federal election. Instead the NDP cruised to a comfortable win even as their vote collapsed nationwide
24/04/2017 Fred
It's difficult to imagine Carole James not holding on to her seat for various reasons: 1. She is the former leader of the BC NDP 2. She came within 100 votes of winning, even in the Liberal massive breakthrough of 2001 3. This Election is very close and the residents who want change will know that James' BCNDP party has the best chance to form government.
18/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
I'm shocked this site would buy into any idea that Carole James is under any real threat here. For heavens' sakes, the last Green candidate was the leader of the party, that's got to account for at least a 5-10% bump over what the result would otherwise have been. The Green are strong and growing to be certain, but Carole James has sort of become a Joe Clark-like or Stephane Dion type figure who has gained esteem after their leadership era. I can't see how an experienced campaigner like her would lose a seat she's had for 12 years with her high profile and the built in advantage of so many gov't employees and union members living in this riding.
18/04/2017 South Islander
As a Green supporter (though not involved in any campaign in any way), I am happy for NDP organizers to be in denial about Carole James' vulnerability and take her reelection for granted. As an amateur pundit, I can't help but respond.
Mainstreet shows the Greens continuing to gain on the Island and ahead by 4%. We'll have to see if other pollsters confirm this. Regardless, when the Greens lead or are even vying for first place on the Island, New Democrats are going to lose a few "safe" seats (in addition to just holding OB-GH or gaining SNI). The one where they failed to break 50% and the Greens finished only 15% behind seems like one such seat, despite Dr. Sterk not being the candidate.
As for loyalty to Carole James, I know for a fact that even some teachers still resent her school closure decisions (which occurred under an NDP provincial government), so her past performance "in power" isn't necessarily a plus from everyone's perspective. And voting for her repeatedly as an MLA hasn't delivered the results people want, while Weaver next door has been a role model of an opposition MLA. NDP campaign organizers might be loyal to her as a former leader and a good party soldier, but that isn't true of most voters. In the last federal election, such loyalty didn't save long-time NDP MPs Pat Martin, Dennis Bevington, Maria Mourani (albeit elected as for the Bloc), Claude Gravelle, Paul Dewar, Wayne Marston, or Peter Stoffer; nor rising star Megan Leslie or former leaders Nycole Turmel (interim), Howard Hampton (ON), Robert Chisholm (NS), or Jack Harris (NL). In recent provincial elections, it didn't save long-time BC MLAs Harry Lali or Jagrup Brar; Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter; veteran Toronto MPPs Rosario Marchese or Michael Prue; Saskatchewan NDP leader Cam Broten; or Manitoba cabinet members Greg Dewar, Christine Melnick, or Steve Ashton. (Sorry if I left anyone out.) So I have to respectfully disagree that "This is Carole James' seat."
18/04/2017 JoshMartini007
NDP is currently the favourite in this riding, but I think people are too quick to dismiss the Greens. The Greens over performed in 2013 due to Sterk being their leader at the time. Based on earlier elections a less high profile Green would have had a similar performance as the other Victoria riding, so around the low-mid 20s. However, in 2013 the Greens finished third at around 20% (had they ran in every district) on the island and now they are statistically tied with the NDP and their support is more concentrated in the Greater Victoria area. Due to the high profile of James she probably holds it should the election occur today, but should the Greens create a significant lead on the island I would imagine she
17/04/2017 Crystal Ball
Absolutely no chance this riding turns Green. This is Carole James and this is one of the safest NDP seats in BC. Even in 2001 the NDP almost held this riding as it was a recount I think? Jane Sterk was Green leader and lost by nearly 20 points last time around. This riding is full of government workers and renters. NDP landslide.
This is Carole James's seat. Not sure why it's TCTC. Keep in mind the Greens we're running their leader here last election and would have enjoyed a bit more of a bounce than usual. James is a hugely known MLA representing a government town. This is an easy NDP call even in a scenario where the Greens win a few seats.
15/04/2017 AZ
While many models have this seat as a potential top target for the Green party based on the theoretical swing they would receive from what they got last time. However by looking at the dynamics of the race one can see how the NDP should be considered the current favorite in this race. For one thing Carole James as both the incumbent as well as being a former leader and school trustee has a fairly large following in this district. James also came within 36 votes of holding this seat in 2001 Liberal landslide, when the NDP was reduced to 2 seats. Another thing that some models may be missing is that the Green party ran their leader Jane Sterk here last time who got 34%, and are not running as high a profile candidate this time, so some drop off in support would be expected. Finally it appears that the Green party has the least committed supporters, based on the latest Mainstreet Research poll, only 46% of current Green party supporters said they were strongly leaning towards the Green party compared to 62% of current NDP supporters that are strongly committed to the NDP. All of this is adds up to a riding that could switch to the Green party, but still strongly leans NDP.
13/04/2017 Mainland Infiltrator
If the polls are to be believed and the Greens are competitive for first place on Vancouver Island, they're gonna be winning in a few places, Carole James notwithstanding. You can't be in first place in a region without being in first place in at least a few seats.
This is actually not necessarily great news for the Greens: they want to be a province-wide party, and if they keep heading in this direction, it'll be difficult for them to grow into anything but a sort of Vancouver Island Garden Party. But if they can win 4-5 seats in the bargain, this will still represent quite a feat -- and it's very, very likely that, if they do win 4-5, Beacon Hill will be among them.
17 03 07 South Islander
This is my current riding. The Greens have surged province-wide. Their strength is concentrated on the South Island where the NDP have a lot of seats to defend. Carole James is certainly a well-known MLA, but she has been held this seat for 12 years now with little to show for it. If it seems clear that the BC Liberals will win the general election handily, voters here may decide to give a new progressive MLA a chance. And given that the NDP are polling lower than their disappointing 2013 result, I think they will be in trouble by the end of a campaign.
17 01 16 political animal
Carol James does not just have high profile as former party leader but was chair of the school board in the 00s and foster mom she is in traditional NDP territory and knows how to campaign easy hold for NDP
17 01 16 political animal
Carol James does not just have high profile
s former partyy leader but was chair of the school
board in the 00s and foster mom
she is in trdiitional NDP territory and knows how
to campaig eassy hold orr NDP
17 01 11 Pundit79
Carole James will win this riding for the BCNDP for a 4th consecutive time.

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