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United Kingdom General Election - 2017

Belfast South


Prediction Changed
2017-06-07 21:38:06
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Bailey, Clare

Bradshaw, Paula

Henderson, Michael

Little Pengelly, Emma

McDonnell, Alasdair

Muilleoir, Mairtin O

Salier, Clare

Incumbent:
Alasdair McDonnell

2016 EU Referendum (Remain vs. Leave)
69.49 % vs. 30.51 %

2015 Election Result
McDonnell, Alasdair*
956024.5%
Bell, Jonathan
865422.2%
Bradshaw, Paula
671117.2%
O Muilleoir, Mairtin
540213.9%
McCune, Rodney
35499.1%
Bailey, Clare
22385.7%
Stoker, Bob
19004.9%
Manton, Ben
5821.5%
Kerr, Lily
361 .9%
2010 Election Result (2010 Prediction)
McDonnell, A.*
1402641.0%
Spratt, J.
810023.7%
Bradshaw, P.J. Ms.
591017.3%
Lo, A. Ms.
511415.0%
McGibbon, A.M.J.
10363.0%
2005 Election Result (transposed)
10339
7263
9104
2882
Minor Parties2012
Other428


 

07/06/2017 A
70.35.100.50
DUP up a little, SDLP down a little... I doubt McDonnell can get the perfect vote split he needs to win again, but this is very unpredictable
13/05/2017 Jack Cox
24.212.227.58
The only polling from Northern Ireland right now shows the DUP is in first place and they've increased their support from the previous election. With this being a very close race i tend to the think the DUP end up taking this seat.
https://www.thesun.ie/news/938542/brexit-fears-dominate-northern-election-as-voters-overwhelming-says-its-their-biggest-concern/
30/04/2017 Teddy Boragina
75.119.244.241
My projection here is \_(?)_/ as this is going to probably be the most confusing race in all of Northern Ireland. Both leading parties are down in the polls, while the next three are up in inverse order. I would not be surprised to see all 5 parties end up between 15%-20% of the vote, and for this seat to be won by under 20%



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United Kingdom General Election - 2017
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