Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-07 21:03:09

Constituency Profile



Dickson, Joe

Phillips, Rod

Taalman, Paul

   Joe Dickson

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):109600

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

20825 51.77%
11471 28.52%
6544 16.27%
1174 2.92%
OTHER 214 0.53%
Total Transposed 40229

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed40229

Federal Election Result (2015):

Mark Holland
Chris Alexander **
Stephanie Brown
Jeff Hill
Bob Kesic


16/01/2018 Blue Leaning
Joe Dickson has been around for a long time but actual accomplishments are few. Lots of pictures but no substance.
If the Blues don't shoot themselves in the foot this should be one of the change ridings in the province. If it goes blue so will the province
2017-12-26 A BCer
Redistribution made this a slightly more urban, Liberal-friendly riding then before, although not by much. Joe Dickson seems like a pretty popular MPP, and this riding went heavily Liberal in 2015 (Even with a fairly-high profile Harper Cabinet Minister running for re-election), but the PCs are also running a something of a star candidate, media magnate Rod Phillips. I don't think it will be enough to overcome the margin in this deep-red riding, so I'm going to say Liberal-hold.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
In the 905 belt, local candidates at best maybe change things by 5% so I don't think Rod Philipps or the current MPP will make that big a difference unless it is really close. In some cases they can help such as Lisa Raitt in Milton federally who probably saved the riding for the Tories due to her personal popularity, but again she barely won it, and the Liberals barely won the other three Halton ridings last federal election. As such if the PCs win a majority, they will likely pick this up, while if they fall short of a majority, then it should stay Liberal.
08/12/2017 George
This Rod Phillips may be a 'star candidate' amongst a handful of downtown elites, but no one in Ajax has ever heard of him. Joe Dickson has been in public office in Ajax continuously since 1970---he's a known quantity, and very popular. He'll win by the same 12-to-20-point margin he wins by every time, with the PCs closer to third than first.
06/12/2017 Kathy
If the PCs win the election, they will win this seat. Star candidate with Rod Phillips.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
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