Brampton North

	ARGUE, GREGORY
	DHILLON, RIPUDAMAN
	MALHI, HARINDER K.
	THORNHAM, PAULINE
	YARDE, KEVIN

Incumbent(s):

	Brampton-Springdale    Harinder Malhi    (78.39% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Bramalea-Gore-Malton    Jagmeet Singh    (15.71% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Brampton West    Vic Dhillon    (5.90% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			111951
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		13460	39.93%
		8239	24.44%
		10555	31.31%
		1149	3.41%
	OTHERS	309	0.92%
	Total Transposed	33713
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Brampton-Springdale
		10579
		6341
		8588
		744
	Others	220
	Total Transposed	26473
	Bramalea-Gore-Malton
		1997
		1354
		1607
		357
	Total Transposed	5316
	Brampton West
		884
		544
		359
		47
	Others	89
	Total Transposed	1924
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Ruby Sahota
		23297	48.40%
		Parm Gill **
		15888	33.00%
		Martin Singh
		7946	16.50%
		Pauline Thornham
		915	1.90%
		Harinderpal Hundal
		120	0.20%

	05/06/2018	MF 50.101.245.26
The Jagmeet Singh effect, a strong base for the NDP in the riding from last time, the collapse of the Liberals and the ethical challenges of the PC candidate should put this in the NDP column.
	03/06/2018	The Elites 99.231.133.51
QP Briefing has just broke news that the PC candidate here is facing multiple lawsuits, including for fraud and breaches in ethics. Combine that with Wynne's announcement this weekend, the NDP should be able to pick this one up.
	27/05/2018	Dr. Bear 184.175.13.231
With very similar 2014 numbers to Brampton Centre, I would expect this race to have a similar outcome. True the fact that there is a liberal incumbent will result in team red doing a bit better here, I still suspect the NDP are starting to be the ones to beat. I say TCTC for the moment.
	18/05/2018	157.52.1.221
New Hospital and Singh name will flip this riding to the NDP
	11/05/2018	Christopher L 136.152.143.129
It's hard to understand why this is currently listed as a Liberal hold. The polling averages put the Tories up about 15% on their 2014 result in the 905, and the Liberals down about 15%. If anything close to that were to happen here (I don't see any indication it wouldn't - Doug Ford has decent appeal in Brampton), it'd be a clear Tory pickup. Of course the wild card is the strength of the NDP - they might hold on to the 30% they got last time, but it's hard to see them adding to it without Jagmeet around. Tories should be favoured.
	07/05/2018	Joe 99.243.204.67
Polls and results from last time out indicate a clear runaway PC win in BramNor.
	07/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
Re 2014's NDP result: it *was* a Jagmeet-spillover effect--the NDP's Gurpreet Dhillon scored a second-place 32% in the former Brampton-Springdale, all on the backs of the north-of-Bovaird/east-of-410 'Singhdale' polls. (In fact, the parts of Jagmeet's former riding presently encompassed by Brampton North are among his weakest: North Bramalea, including Professor's Lake.) Heck, given what happened in Brampton *at large* provincially in 2014, no wonder the federal party banked on Jagmeet's leadership coattails (even if they didn't really translate federally in 2015). Which all renders 2018 a provincial wild card. And really, cabinet doesn't give Malhi any special advantage; in fact, vs any replay of the 2014 pro-NDP dynamic *and* Ford Tory mania, she could easily wind up in third place, much like her father did federally in 2011...
	05/04/2018	C. H. 24.53.244.189
Like lots of ridings in Peel region, this could easily go any of the three ways depending on the provincial winds and quality of the candidates. Definitely TCTC at the moment.
	04/04/2018	Dr.Bear 204.187.20.95
Not a prediction but a point of discussion: The NDP got over 31% of the vote here in 2014. One could argue that this comes from Jagmeet Singh's old riding, but that only comprises about 15% of the current boundary. The numbers just don't work unless: a) Jagmeet's popularity spilled over riding borders; b) the NDP had broader support in Brampton than just Jagmeet mania. If it's the former, then we should expect this 31+ % evaporate this time. If it's the latter, we could see the NDP doing surprising well in Brampton North.
	26/03/2018	Innocent bystander 67.215.130.68
The post-Ford-wins polls are out, and the results are horrific for Peel Liberals, showing a net swing to the Tories of over 40 points (-18, +24). If, and admittedly a large 'if', these results are consistent across the region, the Liberal Peel caucus goes from 7 (out of 8 seats) to nonexistent.
	17/03/2018	Innocent bystander 67.215.130.68
The PCs are polling at 50% in Halton-Peel, a 22 point lead over the Liberals. The only way the Liberals hold on is if they show Wynne the door. And, 'Yes', I'm about to make the same comment everywhere the prediction is Liberal.
	19/01/2018	Bill 69.158.95.220
This riding got very interesting with the promotion of Harinder Malhi to cabinet as Status of Women minister. The PC's nominated Jass Johal a local paralegal to this riding over a year ago. The NDP will also try to maintain their presence in this riding but with no viable candidate they will likely be relegated to third place again. Harinder is widely popular within the South Asian community as she is also the daughter of the first Sikh MP to ever be elected to the House of Commons in 1992.
	15/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
Will likely back whichever party wins although with the rapidly changing demographics as well as both parties vying for the Indo Canadian community vote heavily too early to tell. Doesn't necessarily either swing at the same rate the province does so probably the best indication will be during the campaign to see how much time the leaders spend in Brampton and how the campaign goes. Doubt this can be predicted more than two weeks out from the election unless one party has a strong surge.