Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Brampton North

Prediction Changed
2018-06-01 20:56:00

Constituency Profile








   Harinder Malhi

   (78.39% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Jagmeet Singh

   (15.71% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Brampton West
   Vic Dhillon

   (5.90% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):111951

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

13460 39.93%
8239 24.44%
10555 31.31%
1149 3.41%
OTHERS 309 0.92%
Total Transposed 33713

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed26473


Total Transposed5316

     Brampton West

Total Transposed1924

Federal Election Result (2015):

Ruby Sahota
Parm Gill **
Martin Singh
Pauline Thornham
Harinderpal Hundal


05/06/2018 MF
The Jagmeet Singh effect, a strong base for the NDP in the riding from last time, the collapse of the Liberals and the ethical challenges of the PC candidate should put this in the NDP column.
03/06/2018 The Elites
QP Briefing has just broke news that the PC candidate here is facing multiple lawsuits, including for fraud and breaches in ethics. Combine that with Wynne's announcement this weekend, the NDP should be able to pick this one up.
27/05/2018 Dr. Bear
With very similar 2014 numbers to Brampton Centre, I would expect this race to have a similar outcome. True the fact that there is a liberal incumbent will result in team red doing a bit better here, I still suspect the NDP are starting to be the ones to beat. I say TCTC for the moment.
New Hospital and Singh name will flip this riding to the NDP
11/05/2018 Christopher L
It's hard to understand why this is currently listed as a Liberal hold. The polling averages put the Tories up about 15% on their 2014 result in the 905, and the Liberals down about 15%. If anything close to that were to happen here (I don't see any indication it wouldn't - Doug Ford has decent appeal in Brampton), it'd be a clear Tory pickup. Of course the wild card is the strength of the NDP - they might hold on to the 30% they got last time, but it's hard to see them adding to it without Jagmeet around. Tories should be favoured.
07/05/2018 Joe
Polls and results from last time out indicate a clear runaway PC win in BramNor.
07/04/2018 A.S.
Re 2014's NDP result: it *was* a Jagmeet-spillover effect--the NDP's Gurpreet Dhillon scored a second-place 32% in the former Brampton-Springdale, all on the backs of the north-of-Bovaird/east-of-410 'Singhdale' polls. (In fact, the parts of Jagmeet's former riding presently encompassed by Brampton North are among his weakest: North Bramalea, including Professor's Lake.) Heck, given what happened in Brampton *at large* provincially in 2014, no wonder the federal party banked on Jagmeet's leadership coattails (even if they didn't really translate federally in 2015). Which all renders 2018 a provincial wild card. And really, cabinet doesn't give Malhi any special advantage; in fact, vs any replay of the 2014 pro-NDP dynamic *and* Ford Tory mania, she could easily wind up in third place, much like her father did federally in 2011...
05/04/2018 C. H.
Like lots of ridings in Peel region, this could easily go any of the three ways depending on the provincial winds and quality of the candidates. Definitely TCTC at the moment.
04/04/2018 Dr.Bear
Not a prediction but a point of discussion: The NDP got over 31% of the vote here in 2014. One could argue that this comes from Jagmeet Singh's old riding, but that only comprises about 15% of the current boundary. The numbers just don't work unless: a) Jagmeet's popularity spilled over riding borders; b) the NDP had broader support in Brampton than just Jagmeet mania. If it's the former, then we should expect this 31+ % evaporate this time. If it's the latter, we could see the NDP doing surprising well in Brampton North.
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The post-Ford-wins polls are out, and the results are horrific for Peel Liberals, showing a net swing to the Tories of over 40 points (-18, +24).
If, and admittedly a large 'if', these results are consistent across the region, the Liberal Peel caucus goes from 7 (out of 8 seats) to nonexistent.
17/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The PCs are polling at 50% in Halton-Peel, a 22 point lead over the Liberals. The only way the Liberals hold on is if they show Wynne the door. And, 'Yes', I'm about to make the same comment everywhere the prediction is Liberal.
19/01/2018 Bill
This riding got very interesting with the promotion of Harinder Malhi to cabinet as Status of Women minister. The PC's nominated Jass Johal a local paralegal to this riding over a year ago. The NDP will also try to maintain their presence in this riding but with no viable candidate they will likely be relegated to third place again. Harinder is widely popular within the South Asian community as she is also the daughter of the first Sikh MP to ever be elected to the House of Commons in 1992.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Will likely back whichever party wins although with the rapidly changing demographics as well as both parties vying for the Indo Canadian community vote heavily too early to tell. Doesn't necessarily either swing at the same rate the province does so probably the best indication will be during the campaign to see how much time the leaders spend in Brampton and how the campaign goes. Doubt this can be predicted more than two weeks out from the election unless one party has a strong surge.

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