Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:37:22

Constituency Profile



Ewen, R. Louise

Parks, Derek

    Thunder Bay-Superior North
   Hon Michael Gravelle

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):70475

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

15519 55.97%
1991 7.18%
8169 29.46%
997 3.60%
OTHERS 1049 3.78%
Total Transposed 27725

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Thunder Bay-Superior North

Total Transposed27725

Federal Election Result (2015):

Patty Hajdu
Andrew Foulds
Richard Harvey
Bruce Hyer **
Robert Skaf


09/01/2018 Craig
Wave elections can take down even long-tenured and popular incumbents. Hence, I can't call this seat safe for the Liberals, who are extremely unpopular outside of the Golden Horseshoe. If the NDP nominates a strong candidate, they might be able to make this a race. That is especially true if the PC's move up from irrelevancy to somewhat competitive (i.e. at least in the high teens), reducing the vote required. The PC's will certainly still finish a distant third though.
If Michael Gravelle really wanted to keep the seat, he would run as an independent and he would hold this seat without a fight. The partisan battle would strongly favour the NDP, but his name might be able to keep this seat red.
17/12/2017 The Jackal
This quite possibly may be the Liberals lone Northern Ontario after the election. Mr Gravelle's personal popularity may be a factor
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
I wouldn't call this for the Liberals quite yet. Michael Gravelle is very popular personally and if people vote based on candidate he should have no trouble winning. But his party is extremely unpopular in Northern Ontario and if there is a strong throw the bums out sentiment even popular MPPs can have trouble withstanding that. PCs are not likely to be a factor here.
10/12/2017 J.B.
Michael Gravelle is still personally popular in this riding, as he's held it since 1995. Since then, his margins of victory have fluctuated.
The NDP have nominated an unknown local small business woman, and the PCs are a non-factor.
This is probably the safer of the 2 Thunder Bay ridings. He's brought a lot of economic activity to the region under the various Liberal governments, including the twinning of the Trans-Canada Highway between Nipigon and Thunder Bay.
His only blemish has been his legacy...the expensive, unnecessary Nipigon River cable bridge that uprooted itself in cold weather less than 2 months after it opened, cutting off cross-country traffic for almost a day.
Voters will probably forget this if they feel that the NDP won't form government.

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