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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Timiskaming-Cochrane


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:37:28
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

JOHNSON, BRIAN A.

LALONDE, CASEY

POIRIER, SHAWN

SCHNARR, LAWRENCE

VANTHOF, JOHN

WILLIAMS, MARGARET


Incumbent(s):
    Nipissing-Timiskaming
   John Vanthof

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):67290


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

6134 23.21%
4527 17.13%
14661 55.48%
489 1.85%
OTHERS 615 2.33%
Total Transposed 26426

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Timiskaming-Cochrane

6134
4527
14661
489
Others615
Total Transposed26426


Federal Election Result (2015):

Anthony Rota
2535751.90%
Jay Aspin **
1432529.30%
Kathleen Jodouin
793616.20%
Nicole Peltier
12572.60%


 

14/05/2018 Northern voter
47.55.31.76
Popular NDP incumbent and surging party across the province should be enough. On top of that though, the Liberals have completely disappeared. The only way the Tories could have hoped to squeak this out was a tight 3 way race. We are a week into the campaign and the Liberals do not have a candidate. Weak.
23/04/2018 A.S.
99.225.48.35
While 45% would indeed be a daunting share for the Cons reach, it's still worth noting that this riding's federal equivalent was the only one in Northern Ontario to stay within the PC fold in 1988. Still, Vanthof's solid--indeed, it might be argued that this seat is the truer 'Charlie Angus' provincial counterpart than either Timmins or Mushkegowuk-James Bay. (And why not; unlike the federal Timmins-James Bay, it actually includes Angus's hometown of Cobalt.)
21/04/2018 Craig
130.18.104.137
John Vanthof is quite popular here, which should allow him to easily overcome a Fordian wave. Even though this is in northern Ontario, the demographics and economics here have a southwestern Rust Belt feel to them, and this is a mostly working class riding with a large agricultural sector.
As a result, I would expect the PC's to go from irrelevant to a strong second place. However, I doubt it will be enough to top Vanthof. Maybe with generic candidates, they could pull off an epic upset. The Liberals will surely be irrelevant here, and will likely end up in single digits. That means that the PC's would need at least 45% of the vote, which I don't think they have ever got here in either a federal or provincial election. Hence, the NDP should hold this one.
24/03/2018 NJam101
63.135.16.204
John Vanthof for sure. The Liberal vote will be lower this time and the PCs could pick up some support but Vanthof will still get more than half of the votes.
19/03/2018 jeff316
69.165.157.213
Vanthof is the perfect PC candidate and his salt of earth approach should keep him elected in a riding that otherwise could have been the PC
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
The NDP have held this without much trouble in the last decade so with a reasonably popular leader and an unpopular premier as well as an area the PCs tend to be weak in, easy NDP hold. Also Andrea Howarth's more left of centre populism may hurt her in downtown Toronto, but should be an asset in this blue collar working class riding.



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