Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Timmins


Prediction Changed
2017-12-16 20:21:46
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

AUGER, MICKEY

BAUER, JOZEF

BISSON, GILLES

G?NIER, YVAN L.

SCHAAP, GARY

SCHINBECKLER, LUCAS BLAKE


Incumbent(s):
    Timmins-James Bay
   Gilles Bisson

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):41785


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

2994 20.49%
4579 31.34%
6718 45.98%
289 1.97%
OTHERS 32 0.22%
Total Transposed 14612

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Timmins-James Bay

2994
4579
6718
289
Others32
Total Transposed14612


Federal Election Result (2015):

Charlie Angus **
1597442.90%
Todd Lever
1294034.70%
John P. Curley
760520.40%
Max Kennedy
7522.00%


 

20/05/2018 jeff316
108.161.115.110
Genier is a huge step back for the PCs. He'll probably keep the PCs in the mid 30s back the chance for Ford to take this riding took a big hit with such a no name candidate against a powerhouse like Bisson. I'll agree that with this nomination, my prediction is less likely.
28/04/2018 NJam101
208.96.95.84
The PC candidate is Yvan Genier.
Genier is an insurance salesperson from what I've read but I don't know him. Most people in Timmins don't know who he is so it looks as though Gilles Bisson won't have much of a challenge. The PCs don't stand a chance here at all.
Timmins is the most left-wing city in Ontario so it has been hard for the PCs to pose a challenge in both federal and provincial elections over the last 30 years. It used to be more because of unions and labour rights but today is more about social issues and services. I mentioned in my previous comments that most people here fear the PCs ever since Mike Harris was leader. And I'm hearing a lot of fear and negative comments about Doug Ford. Ford isn't the type of person who is liked in a mining city. His proposal for tax breaks for businesses is not the sort of thing most Timminites like to hear. And his promise to slash spending which would likely impact here big-time just means Bisson will get even more votes.
I live in Timmins and can confirm that Ford-type populism doesn't work here. Tax breaks and incentives mean nothing to most. Social services and infrastructure are the big issues.
07/04/2018 A.S.
99.225.48.35
Believe it or not, I *wouldn't* rule out the PCs here--but a caveat about 2014: some of that elevated PC tally might have been a bragging-rights hangover from their outsize 2011 result, when their candidate was Kapuskasing mayor Al Spacek. Of course, Kap's no longer in the riding (which hasn't prevented DoFo from photo-opping with Spacek). But neither are those pesty northern First Nations polls; and to be quite frank (as Spacek made clear through his earlier run), Timmins isn't necessarily any longer the blue wasteland it was in the 90s and noughts. Still: Gilles Bisson's a tough nut to crack, given his record of having the top ONDP result in the province several times over. But he's not infallible, any more than Michael Prue was in 2014. And in a 2018 climate, that'd mean to the PCs more than the Liberals--yes, even in lowly Timmins. But naturally, as has been said, it depends on *who's* nominated to run against Bisson, otherwise it's but idle speculation...
05/04/2018 C. H.
24.53.244.189
Timmins should definitely lean towards the NDP, but the PCs did about as well here as province-wide in 2014 when not aiming for the working-class vote. With Ford as PC leader and the PCs riding high in the polls, this could definitely go either way.
26/03/2018 John K.
99.225.20.132
People in the South don't give Northerners enough credit. Northerners understand that they live in a huge area with hardly any population density, and that when politicians campaign on 'trimming the fat', they are the first places to be hit the hardest because they are the most subsidized. This riding will not go PC.
25/03/2018 jeff316
45.72.130.199
NJam is right, the PC party isn't the one of Pope et al. The PC Party is the one that got 31 percent of the vote in Timmins proper last time around - when the NDP had a lock of the working class vote and when the PCs were lead by a Masters degree holding, southern Ontarian career politician that effectively threatened to cut everyone's aunt or sister or cousin's job.
Now the NDP has had their platform lifted by the Liberals again and PC are led by a guy that pledges not to cut jobs just 'trim the fat', communicates effectively, and has the everyman persona needed to reel in the NDP's working class votes - and this guy has province-wide momentum.
I agree Lim would make it difficult for the PCs but not insurmountable. Laughren would be a lock. And he is the best illustration of the vote shift - he was someone the NDP once considered a successor to Bisson. It may be a shock to some, but it won't be to all.
22/03/2018 NJam101
63.135.16.204
I live in Timmins and know Timmins very well. It is very interesting that our city in now its own electoral district.
Gilles Bisson will certainly be re-elected. There is nothing to suggest otherwise. He's not a part of the unpopular Liberal government. I used to always write on here that he had a lifetime lock on Timmins-James Bay. I'm pretty sure that he does for Timmins as well.
It made me laugh to see people predicting a PC win for Timmins. The PC Party isn't the one of the past that was very moderate and included MPPs from here such as Wilf Spooner and Alan Pope who were both cabinet ministers. Once Mike Harris became leader of the PC Party things changed to the point that the party is very detested here by most. The PCs had only gained minimal amounts in Timmins-James Bay since then at times when the candidate was popular and moderate but none ever came close. The Liberals don't have a chance here and I can't believe they got 20% in the City of Timmins in 2014. I'm guessing that it will be a parachute candidate for them. And guess where a good chunk of the Liberal vote will go...to the NDP.
Now the big question is who will be the PC candidate? Nobody has shown any interest yet. And it would have to be someone who is well known in order to get a large number of votes in such little time. I can't think of anyone who is popular, well known and openly conservative. Our current mayor Steve Black was the PC candidate last time but he is struggling as mayor and many are upset over his big spending and taxes which includes those who lean left. None of the city councillors are popular and that includes some who have supported the PC party in the past. But two city councillors, Rick Dubeau and Joe Campbell have been very critical of the mayor's spending in a kind of Doug Ford style but are either of them conservative? Do that many people really like either of them? Dubeau currently has corruption charges against him and Campbell isn't really MPP material. So who will the candidate be? I've heard rumours of former mayor Jamie Lim but she ended up being unpopular after one term as mayor. I just can't think of anybody except former mayor Tom Laughren. He is the only who would present a challenge to Bisson but I don't think he could win based on his name.
Gilles Bisson (where you like him or not) is known for consistency. People know where he stands and they know how hard of a worker he is. His office is known for fighting hard for constituents probably more than any other MPP. Now that Bisson can spend the entire election campaign in the city, he will have a huge advantage.
Doug Ford is not an asset to the PCs when it comes to Northern Ontario and especially somewhere like Timmins. There are always some grumpy old men that like him here but most people aren't fond of his style. Mike Harris failed miserably here just for the record. Even among PC members in Timmins Doug Ford did very poorly. Caroline Mulroney had the most votes on the first ballot if that says anything. Ford's message is something that benefits very few people here. Our region tends to be the first place targeted for budget cuts by any political party so just mentioned budget cuts scares people here. About 40% of our population in francophone and about 15% is Indigenous. The PC Party no longer appeals to francophones like it once did until the 1990s. And Indigenous people here usually vote heavily NDP. And I have to add that I worked at a polling station during the last provincial election and a LOT of Indigenous people voted.
19/03/2018 jeff316
69.165.157.213
Credit where it is due. Bisson could have mailed it in by running in the new Mushkegowuk riding but he chose Timmins. That is integrity, class, and guts.
New riding, trend of PC/Conservative vote increases with each election, concentrated Conservative vote, a history of electing Conservative mayors and councillors, and no serious Liberal always made this a little too close for comfort for the NDP.
The only thing Bisson has going for him is that he can campaign the whole time in Timmins ($$$) but it will be for naught. The addition of Doug Ford just seals this as an NDP second place. The minute he goes out to campaign with Bourgouin to save the NDP up there the media and public will never forgive him. It
11/01/2018 JB
216.211.76.34
Gilles Bisson has officially announced that he will run in this riding. NDP win, period.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Traditionally a very safe NDP riding although unlike in Southern Ontario where rural areas are more right wing than urban you have the opposite in the North although both lean left. As such the NDP should hold this, but the Tories will probably have a more decent second place showing than they would have in Timmins-James Bay.
15/12/2017 teddy boragina
157.52.13.39
Don't be so quick to discount the tories in this riding; just as they won thompson in manitoba's provincial election, the tories can and do sometimes win northern ridings; especially those focused on a town/city like this.



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