Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Toronto Centre

Prediction Changed
2017-12-16 20:21:00

Constituency Profile













    Toronto Centre
   Hon. Glen Murray

   (99.86% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Han Dong

   (0.14% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):93971

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

20733 60.48%
4177 12.18%
6685 19.50%
1623 4.73%
OTHERS 1065 3.11%
Total Transposed 34282

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Toronto Centre

Total Transposed34282

Federal Election Result (2015):

Bill Morneau
Linda McQuaig
Julian Di Battista
Colin Biggin
Jordan Stone
Mariam Ahmad
Philip Fernandez


05/06/2018 Danny
I think this was incorrectly called. Wynne's concession was a huge mistake for a riding like this, where I think many low-information voters didn't realize just how bad the Liberals were polling. My sense is everywhere except Cabbagetown and maybe the Village is going heavily for the NDP. Morris hasn't proven compelling enough a campaigner to hold out against the NDP wave. I do expect the Liberals to eke out 1 or 2 seats in the 416, but this will not be one of them.
05/06/2018 Daniel
This riding prediction has not been updated since Dec 2017 - a lot has happened in the last 5 1/2 months. I have been a generally liberal voter for the last 20 years, but this time around, they are imploding and those of us who lived through the Toronto Ford mayoral years will do anything to prevent a Ford at the provincial level. The old downtown City of Toronto ridings will be a wash of orange to prevent the provincial risk of a blue majority.
03/06/2018 Cal
Spent some time here over the weekend. This is an easy NDP gain.
03/06/2018 MF
Calling this for the NDP. The previous riding results are practically irrelevant given the drastic shifts in this election. Rosedale is out of the riding, there is no incumbent and the Liberals are out of the game province-wide. The NDP is now far ahead in inner Toronto and progressive Liberals are flocking en masse to the NDP.
29/05/2018 Joe
NDP now has momentum and a great lot of steam. Eric Grenier of CBC now shows them really big leads here and in a couple of middle Ottawa seats. Safe NDP call!
5/28/2018 Panther
Many NDP signs across the riding combined with a non-existent PC campaign (their campaign office was in darkness at 7pm on a Monday night) that it only makes sense to switch this riding from Liberal to at least TCTC.
5/28/2018 The Lobster
David Morris should be able to hold onto this -- barely. Post-final debate, the Liberals will likely get a smidge of a boost. More importantly, a 40% gap is simply extraordinary to overcome (not that it can't be done -- ask Jack Harris). But in the absence of an NDP star candidate, I expect Liberals (running a good ground game) to still win by 5-12%.
5/24/2018 Anthony
The CBC poll tracker now has the Liberals on 0 seats in Toronto since the NDP have taken first in the polls. That would make this an NDP gain and sweep of the downtown region.
23/05/2018 Joe
Smallest urban riding with so many condo-dwellers, polling shows NDP flying in the old city and Toronto Centre should soon go orange too.
22/05/2018 Bza
I've lived in Church and Wellesley before, and despite this riding having a very active NDP and some areas where the party does quite well, I expect this to hold as Liberal.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the Liberals go below 50% and end up with something like 40%, with the NDP getting 35%, and the PCs and Greens getting in the single digits.
21/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Campaign Research poll of Toronto has Liberals up 11 on the NDP in Toronto Centre ... the only other seat after St. Paul's where they can be considered a favourite.
19/05/2018 MF
While TC be one of the last Liberal holdouts, it will be interesting to see how the NDP does here. No incumbent and no Rosedale could change the dynamics here. An NDP victory is not out of the picture if the NDP wins province-wide.
18/05/2018 Arm Chair Campaign Manager
I'm calling this one for the NDP even though this should be a safe liberal riding - for a few reasons:
1. The liberals nominated their candidate just at the beginning of May - and even though he's well spoken and nice, has little experience and zero name recognition. It was a surprise he won the nomination in the first place - a sign that Liberals may have already given up on this riding. Only a few signs are around (considering it's a strong liberal riding). I'm not sure sitting back and campaigning solely on the Liberal brand is going to help this time.
2. The PC's - which are typically the closest challenger in the riding - are running a disastrous campaign in this riding (ie hiring actors for a rally?!?) PC voters have a hard time voting Liberal and will either not vote or 'throw their vote away to the NDP'.
3. The NDP are running a good campaign - provincially and locally. Signs are up around the riding and the candidate is all over the place. d
Strong NDP support in the southern part of the riding, split the vote between liberals and NDP in the Village and Cabbagetown and NDP won't get wiped out on the North part of the riding due to low PC turnout - will equal an NDP win.
17/05/2018 MarkTO
Toronto Centre is one of the safest Liberal seats, no matter how they are doing overall. The closest competition is too far off, this riding won't swing.
5/17/2018 Stevo
Even if the Liberals fall to Igantieff levels of voter support (18%), Toronto-Centre will still be one of the 3-5 seats they win.
28/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberals won The 6ix by 26 points last election, and would have swept up 23 of 25 seats if the 2018 boundaries had been in use.
Now they're polling third, and this is their safe seat - everything else appears to be in play.
18/03/2018 A.S.
One of the trio of new fed/prov Downtown Toronto seats that the once-bullish NDP hoped would be competitive but turned out to be federal Lib-landslide instead, Toronto Centre is the one with the least NDP history (having previously been hampered by Rosedale in its northern reaches) but the most 'potential' (the presence of a fair bit of social housing, the relative absence of condos, ergo the lowest notional Tory share of the three). Though that sure didn't pull through federally in 2015; and at a notional 60%+ in 2014 (even if that's skewed by everything coming from one safe riding), it doesn't look *likely* to do so provincially in 2018, either. Or if the NDP shows signs of coming even close, the Grits will retaliate with full 'a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Tories' rhetoric to draw the wayward home...
18/01/2018 R.O.
Its surprising no major candidates have been nominated here as Glen Murray announced he was retiring months ago although likely to remain a liberal riding
21/12/2017 Gabbith
I wonder why the NDP haven't nominated anyone here yet. Liberals also look like their holding out for a star. I think this should be too close to call until the parties have nominated candidates.
20/12/2017 Max N
If previous provincial and federal elections are any indication, expect a high profile Liberal candidate to run in this riding and win handedly.
With Glen Murray not running here anymore, coupled with the fact that Liberals are not polling so great, this one could go NDP. I'm sure the PCs will up their vote here but they wont win in this very urban riding. Toss up at this point.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
The loss of Rosedale does help the NDP, but with Wynne moving the Liberals leftwards and having the type of policies that sell well in downtown Toronto, I suspect they will hold this. Still an NDP pick up while unlikely is possible and if that happens the Liberals will likely be reduced to single digits in seats.

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