Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Toronto-Danforth


Prediction Changed
2017-12-09 23:33:12
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Tabuns, Peter


Incumbent(s):
    Toronto-Danforth
   Peter Tabuns

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):104017


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

15983 37.16%
4304 10.01%
19190 44.61%
2351 5.47%
OTHERS 1189 2.76%
Total Transposed 43017

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Toronto-Danforth

15983
4304
19190
2351
Others1189
Total Transposed43017


Federal Election Result (2015):

Julie Dabrusin
2353142.30%
Craig Scott
2232540.20%
Benjamin Dichter
54789.90%
Chris Tolley
26184.70%
John Richardson
12752.30%
Elizabeth Abbott
3540.60%


 

13/01/2018 seasaw
99.225.226.230
I also wanted to add that in the last federal election, I was the only one who predicted a Liberal win in this riding. I was ridiculed by some posters, and I'm not bragging but I was right. The reason for my prediction then was that the federal Liberals, held this riding for a long time until Jack Layton came in the picture as leader, he had previously lost here by a big margin and let's face it he didn't win by much in 2004. The federal party put a lot of effort here, but this is provincial and the Liberals have never held this seat, they'll be putting all their efforts in ridings that they hold or have held recently and this one ain't one of them
11/01/2018 seasaw
99.225.226.230
@ML, Craig Scott was Mr Layton's successor not predecessor, I'm sure that's what you meant to say. Now for this riding, if you take the boundaries of the riding, it's made up of the entire former riding of Riverdale, a small portion of former riding of Beaches and an even smaller portion of former riding of York East. Both Riverdale and Beaches( about 95% of the riding) , have only elected NDP members to QP, they elected NDP members in both Liberal and Tory massive landslides even elected NDPers when NDP didn't even get official party. That coupled with the fact that Tabuns is very well liked will ensure an NDP victory
21/12/2017 Gabbith
75.98.19.133
Already held by the NDP and Tabuns is running again. In an anything but Liberal election, this will likely mean Tabuns will be re elected.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
This is a strong NDP riding and only narrowly went Liberal federally in a massive red wave so even if the Liberals provincially are moving leftward to try and win ridings like this, their negative baggage provincially and general NDP trend should be enough for the NDP to hold this. Also anytime the Tories get over 10% here, the NDP usually wins as while the Tories are extremely weak here, all their gains will come at the expense of the Liberals not NDP.
09/12/2017 ML
69.77.168.131
Historically this riding has been an NDP stronghold. The Liberals pulled off an upset in the last federal election by beating Jack Layton's predecessor Craig Scott. I don't expect a Trudeau-level Liberal wave this June. I expect the Liberals to put up a strong fight. The granola munchers of Riverdale and Danforth Village are being replaced by accountants and lawyers. Likewise, in Leslieville, historically an NDP bastion, there have been considerable condo development that is bringing in young professionals who are likely tuned out to the meat and potato populism of Horwath's NDP. I suspect Tabuns' high profile in and outside of the riding to be the clincher. NDP by a nose.



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