Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-09 23:33:00

Constituency Profile











   Peter Tabuns

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):104017

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

15983 37.16%
4304 10.01%
19190 44.61%
2351 5.47%
OTHERS 1189 2.76%
Total Transposed 43017

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed43017

Federal Election Result (2015):

Julie Dabrusin
Craig Scott
Benjamin Dichter
Chris Tolley
John Richardson
Elizabeth Abbott


I think, with the NDP high in the polls provincially and Peter Tabuns, NDP, is very popular in Danforth he should continue to represent this ridding after June 7th 2018.
29/05/2018 sprins
Liberal Staffer, working on the local campaign in the riding.
Wish there was a 'Too close to call' button here - the Local Liberal candidate in the area has been working very hard relative to the NDP incumbent in the riding, who seems to be taking things easier this election cycle.
The reduced canvassing on the part of the NDP incumbent has allowed for a greater number of Liberal IDs then we've seen in prior elections in the area!
26/05/2018 Cavell Ave.
The Liberal candidate is running a strong campaign - lots of signs and active mailing list - plus the riding is gentrifying - in a strong Liberal year she might have a chance, but with the NDP rising in the polls and this one of the only NDP ridings that survived the Liberal sweep of Toronto last time, the NDP seems safe. An NDP canvasser came around recently and seemed pretty confident from what they were hearing at the doors.
25/05/2018 ML
Recanting my earlier 'Too Close to Call' prediction. With the recent NDP wave this will definitely remain an NDP seat and will likely have the highest NDP margin in Toronto.
21/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Campaign Research poll of Toronto has NDP up 51 - 21 - 20 on Liberals and PCs in Toronto-Danforth. It's a small sample size, but a 30 point lead is a lot.
No chance for the Liberals in Toronto-Danforth. Not with their third place polling. This is a safe NDP riding.
02/04/2018 ML
I'm moving my prediction from NDP to To Close to Call. Yes, I think the NDP is still the favourite in the riding. But the prospect of strategic voting could be a key factor here, particularly with the influx of young, urbane couples and families moving into the Danforth and Leslieville, and the prospects of Premier Ford. The NDP, both provincially and federally, have had issues engaging with Toronto. The modern Liberal Party of Trudeau and Wynne speak the language of the upper-middle class, creative, and bourgeois-lefty types. The type of voter who support investments to public transit or social identity issues, but whose eyes glaze over when the NDP talk about P3s or labour rights.
In Toronto-Danforth, the NDP has many things in their corner: A high profile, workhorse incumbent who knocks on doors between election cycles, two NDP affiliated city councillors, and a deep donor and volunteer pool of'champagne socialist' retirees. For the Liberals, they have a newly minted MP, Julie Dabrusin, a well organized riding association, and from what I have heard, the same people behind Dabrusin's campaign working for their provincial candidate.
Given Tabuns' high profile, both in Queen's Park and the riding, he should rightly be viewed as the favourite. However, unlike others, I don't think this riding is a strong lock for the NDP.
01/04/2018 Dr. Bear
The Liberals will be too busy trying to hold off advances by both the NDP and the PC elsewhere in Toronto to direct resources in a relatively safe NDP seat.
29/03/2018 Craig
Peter Tabuns is quite popular here, but local candidates don't usually matter as much in the GTA as in other areas. As highly unpopular as Wynne is, she is still reasonably popular among urban progressives, and the 2018 budget was a clear attempt to win over urban NDP voters. The question is...can she eradicate the NDP from Toronto?
Most likely, the strongest non-PC party will win this seat, as Doug Ford is despised here. Even though strategic voting shouldn't be a factor in a riding where the PC's are irrelevant, it often is out of the fear factor. Hence, a Liberal pickup is very possible, in fact I would say a better than 50-50 chance. That said, if the NDP are polling much higher in the last days, this seat should stay orange. Either way, the PC's will likely finish in single digits and may finish 4th behind the Greens.
20/03/2018 MF
Peter Tabuns looks safe, I don't see him seeing the same fate as Michael Prue let alone Rosario Marchese in 2014. Andrea Horwath may not have taken off in Toronto, but I suspect the 'screw Toronto' strategy won't be repeated. The Liberals just aren't enough on the upswing to pull off a federal 2015 shocker. BTW there's a Ford family connection to the riding - Doug Ford Sr. grew up on the Danforth, but that won't count for anything (more voters are familiar with Rob's drunkenness at Taste of the Danforth). This should be, like most inner Toronto ridings, a PC dead zone, particularly with Ford as
19/03/2018 jeff316
Tabuns had appeal back when the NDP was marginal and his prospective influence (as one of maybe only a dozen NDP caucus members) was heightened.
17/03/2018 A.S.
Yeah, I know, Toronto's last NDP MPP standing; but let me be bold and offer a non-prediction...and (in response to seasaw) on similar grounds to which I qualified my 2015 fed NDP prediction, even if it was a fed NDP prediction. That is, demos--not just Riverdale gentrification, but maybe now even more so the ever-more-styleifying condo-fication taking place around Broadview, Carlaw, etc. Okay, maybe it's a little arbitrary for me to do so (though the 2014 condo-poll figures *are* scary for Dippers seeking a long-term picture). Still, as a consequence of his party's parliamentary urban decimation, the endurance of Tabuns can't escape a bit of pre-Horwathian, pre-Jagmeetian staleness around the edges--right now, for all his credentials (on the enviro beat, especially), he seems more the reluctant elder statesman than a cornerstone for renewal. Though such assumed anachronism isn't likely to defeat him unless anti-Ford strategic-Liberalling goes into overdrive.
13/01/2018 seasaw
I also wanted to add that in the last federal election, I was the only one who predicted a Liberal win in this riding. I was ridiculed by some posters, and I'm not bragging but I was right. The reason for my prediction then was that the federal Liberals, held this riding for a long time until Jack Layton came in the picture as leader, he had previously lost here by a big margin and let's face it he didn't win by much in 2004. The federal party put a lot of effort here, but this is provincial and the Liberals have never held this seat, they'll be putting all their efforts in ridings that they hold or have held recently and this one ain't one of them
11/01/2018 seasaw
@ML, Craig Scott was Mr Layton's successor not predecessor, I'm sure that's what you meant to say. Now for this riding, if you take the boundaries of the riding, it's made up of the entire former riding of Riverdale, a small portion of former riding of Beaches and an even smaller portion of former riding of York East. Both Riverdale and Beaches( about 95% of the riding) , have only elected NDP members to QP, they elected NDP members in both Liberal and Tory massive landslides even elected NDPers when NDP didn't even get official party. That coupled with the fact that Tabuns is very well liked will ensure an NDP victory
21/12/2017 Gabbith
Already held by the NDP and Tabuns is running again. In an anything but Liberal election, this will likely mean Tabuns will be re elected.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This is a strong NDP riding and only narrowly went Liberal federally in a massive red wave so even if the Liberals provincially are moving leftward to try and win ridings like this, their negative baggage provincially and general NDP trend should be enough for the NDP to hold this. Also anytime the Tories get over 10% here, the NDP usually wins as while the Tories are extremely weak here, all their gains will come at the expense of the Liberals not NDP.
09/12/2017 ML
Historically this riding has been an NDP stronghold. The Liberals pulled off an upset in the last federal election by beating Jack Layton's predecessor Craig Scott. I don't expect a Trudeau-level Liberal wave this June. I expect the Liberals to put up a strong fight. The granola munchers of Riverdale and Danforth Village are being replaced by accountants and lawyers. Likewise, in Leslieville, historically an NDP bastion, there have been considerable condo development that is bringing in young professionals who are likely tuned out to the meat and potato populism of Horwath's NDP. I suspect Tabuns' high profile in and outside of the riding to be the clincher. NDP by a nose.

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