Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Toronto-St. Paul's

Prediction Changed
2017-12-03 21:51:08

Constituency Profile



Dunavant, Jekiah

Hoskins, Eric

Pun, Teresa

    St. Paul's
   Hon Eric Hoskins

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):103983

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

26117 59.24%
10571 23.98%
4608 10.45%
2271 5.15%
OTHERS 521 1.18%
Total Transposed 44089

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    St. Paul's

Total Transposed44089

Federal Election Result (2015):

Carolyn Bennett **
Marnie MacDougall
Noah Richler
Kevin Farmer


15/01/2018 R.O.
This is a very safe liberal riding and Eric Hoskins is likely to hold the riding for the liberals. opposition has also yet to nominate a candidate but its doubtful any could swing the riding.
08/01/2018 MF
One of the easiest ridings to predict. St. Paul's and Ottawa-Vanier are probably the safest Liberal ridings in Ontario. Home to the 'too educated to vote Tory, too bourgeois to vote NDP' demographic. Eric Hoskins, MD, PhD is a perfect fit for the riding.
2017-12-26 Craig
Safest Liberal seat in Ontario. If this riding is close, the Liberals will be heading into Kim Campbell territory.
Demographically, this is perfect for them - a ?creative class? type, affluent riding with a large number of professionals, while the labour movement is weak enough that the NDP is not a factor. Eric Hoskins is very well suited for them, and this is one of the few places where Kathleen Wynne is probably a significant asset still. Patrick Brown may be trying hard for that demographic, but social conservatism is abhorred here and they still don't forget his record (which he has rebuked).
If the Liberals are heading to another electoral win, I wouldn't be surprised if they top 70% here.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
PCs could make this interesting with the right candidate, but until they nominate someone I think this will stay with Hoskins. This is a very safe Liberal seat regardless, so if Hoskins loses the Liberals may not even get 5 seats.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This along with Ottawa-Vanier is probably the safest Liberal riding in the province. Very much your classical liberal elitist riding, otherwise too rich to vote NDP, too educated to vote Tory (although Tories should win Forest Hill, but lose elsewhere) so easy Liberal win regardless of how they do provincewide and in fact if they do really poorly Eric Hoskins maybe one of the few MPPs they have left to choose from for the next leader.
03/12/2017 Insight
This is likely the safest Liberal seat in the province these days... and there are really not that many safe Liberal seats!

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