Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Toronto-St. Paul's

Prediction Changed
2017-12-03 21:51:00

Constituency Profile









    St. Paul's
   Hon Eric Hoskins

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):103983

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

26117 59.24%
10571 23.98%
4608 10.45%
2271 5.15%
OTHERS 521 1.18%
Total Transposed 44089

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    St. Paul's

Total Transposed44089

Federal Election Result (2015):

Carolyn Bennett **
Marnie MacDougall
Noah Richler
Kevin Farmer


06/06/2018 Dom
Most polls are showing the NDP in a tight two or three-way race in St. Paul's. Incredible given their past performance. Reasons: No incumbency effect, liberal collaspe, a disdain for Doug Ford (& fear of a Conservative majority) and a likable NDP leader. As a resident of St. Pauls on the western side of the district along Vaughan Road, I can tell you there's a lot of orange support, especially bordering nearby Davenport. If the NDP outperform their poll numbers tomorrow I will expect this riding to go for them!
31/05/2018 ghoris
Eric Grenier is only projecting two Liberal seats as of yesterday. I don't think it's quite that dire for the Liberals, but even if that comes to pass, this seat will be one of the two (Ottawa-Vanier being the other). That said, the fact that LISPOP has this otherwise super-safe Liberal seat merely 'leaning' Liberal should tell us something about the Liberals' overall chances.
31/05/2018 QuebecCityOliver
I find it interesting how little people realize that the old rules no longer apply (except on parts of the island of Montreal). Voters are fickle and are more than happy to switch their votes to different parties.
Look at Alberta and its penetration of Calgary in the dying days of the 2015 campaign. The orange wave in 2011 in Quebec took them to 50 seats out of 75 even fortress Montreal was rocked.
They are no safe seats any more. This is the new rule. Why vote Liberal when they are polling at 25% in central Toronto - you are simply wasting your vote at this point or worse electing a worse alternative.
This is what will drive voters next week. Policy clearly doesn't matter.
29/05/2018 Joe
Toronto Saint Pauls is a close race with PC and NDP both around 40% and Liberal party close to, just above 10% who are no longer in the race. Slightly leaning towards the PC but not yet able to be called.
5/28/2018 Innocent bystander
Too close to call. The NDP surge in central Toronto means that there are no safe Liberal seats.
5/28/2018 Josh
Mainstreet Research has this riding within the margin of error between the OLP and the ONDP. But, let's be real: this is staying Liberal. It might be close, but it's not going to go to the NDP. However, given the 2014 mayoral results for Doug Ford in the parts of the riding that make up the municipal ward, it's clear that Ford is a drag on the Kirsch campaign.
26/05/2018 RD
Global News listed this seat as one of the 20 closest in the province, based on their review of public and private polling data. They had the NDP shockingly in the lead with both the Liberals and Tories close behind. Will the NDP raise an orange flag over Toronto-St. Paul
23/05/2018 MBM
As a conservative living in St. Paul's, I've come to accept that my vote is essentially wasted. As others have pointed out (correctly, in my opinion) that this is as safe a Liberal seat as any, I walked a good portion of this riding over the weekend, starting from Oriole Park to St. Clair and Oakwood the first day and north-east towards Eglinton and Mount Pleasant on day two to gauge the sign count. Excluding businesses (I stayed almost exclusively on side streets), I counted 12 Liberal, 6 PC and 2 NDP over those two days. That's hardly the 'sea of red' that St. Paul's typically is. Also, the latest CBC poll tracker as of this writing projects the Liberals to win FIVE seats out of 124. That said, history is compelling and it's hard to predict anything but the Liberals here, but if their numbers don't improve in the next week or so (or keep getting worse) I might downsize the amount of my bet from 'the rent' to a really nice dinner.
22/05/2018 Bza
I've lived in the St. Clair West area before, and this definitely is a Liberal stronghold and would be one of the final seats they would have even if it is a blowout for the NDP and PCs in the rest of Toronto.
Like with Toronto-Centre, could see the Liberals dipping below 50%, but will still be in the mid to high 40s.
If the Liberals can't win this seat they'll lose every seat, period. Even without Doug Ford undermining the PC party's appeal to well-educated and affluent people, the PCs would hardly have taken St Paul's. The Liberals are going down the drain, but St Paul's will resist the general trend.
21/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Campaign Research poll of Toronto has Liberals up 16 on the NDP in Toronto St. Paul's, making this the riding they're most likely to hang on to.
20/05/2018 jeff316
The fact that the Liberals ended up with a party staffer lifer in Spindler as their candidate shows just how deep the party's internal malaise is. The NDP isn't having much of a showing - to contrast, Richler was all over the place only to get 18%. Kirch might just sneak it if the NDP vote collapses here. It just might.
20/05/2018 Anthony
In the event that the Liberals win only 1 seat in Toronto, this would be that 1 seat.
19/05/2018 MF
With the Liberals sinking to third place, it's time to update this one. Oh wait...it's St. Paul's. If the Ontario Liberals go the way of the Manitoba Liberals, this would be their 'River Heights.'
13/05/2018 The Jackal
The only surprising thing thing here is the lack of a star candidate for the Liberals to replace Dr.Hoskins. But the OLP will prevail here.
10/05/2018 Christopher L
The Tories used to have some real strength in Midtown, and this riding might have been open to a Christine Elliott led PC Party, but the hatred of the Ford Brothers runs deep here. It's probably the safest Liberal seat in the province, or second only to Ottawa Vanier. My projection based on where things stand right now:
Libs: high 40s
PCs: high 20s
NDP: high 10s
28/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberals won The 6ix by 26 points in 2014; now they're running third, down 43%.
Disaffected Liberals look to be breaking to the PCs over the NDP by a 3:2 ratio.
Too close to call, but the Liberals need the NDP to over-perform among their defectors to hold on.
20/04/2018 Stevo
This, along with University-Rosedale, is ground zero for pinkie-in-the-air champagne-sipping elites. It will be a very long 4 years (8? 12?) for them.
01/04/2018 Dr. Bear
The latest Forum poll indicate that the brouhaha of the PC leadership race is fading, and voting patterns are settling down. Numbers for the 416 are 39% Liberal, 28% NDP, 27% PC. Most of that PC support will be in Etobicoke and Scarborough. That means most of the Toronto-proper seats are safe for the Liberals.
01/04/2018 seasaw
The Tories can run Jesus Christ and the Liberals can run a fence post in this riding and the Liberals will still win
27/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Rumor has it that former City Councillor, Mike Tzekas is interested here. While not a local, he knows what he's doing and would be a formidable candidate.
21/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Dr. Who was among the first of the rats deserting the sinking ship. The Tories could run a little yellow dog here and win.
15/03/2018 Teddy Boragina
Elliott is not going to run here; at least from what my sources tell me.
18/03/2018 A.S.
It'd take some pretty perverse 'if they can support Michael Bryant, they can support Doug Ford' logic to make this winnable for Xtine Elliott, even if Fordians would still loooove to surf the St Clair streetcar issue. In fact, the most fitting (not winning, but 'fitting') 'Ford Tory' opponent wouldn't be Elliott, but she whom Eric Hoskins first opposed by way of byelection: Sue-Ann Levy.
14/03/2018 MF
Is Christine Elliott seriously pondering running for the PCs in St. Paul's? Maybe she just wants to be a loyal soldier but not have to serve under Ford. Her chances of winning it were minimal even if she led the PCs (John Tory's 2007 run in Don Valley West made far more sense), she has ZERO chance of winning it now with Ford leading the party.
City councillor Josh Matlow pretty much nailed the sentiment in St. Paul's in his response to Doug Ford being elected to the PC leadership: 'With Doug Ford as leader, there
13/03/2018 Dr.Bear
There is no way that St Paul is going to vote PC with Doug Ford at the helm. Christine Elliott is going to find herself again outside of Queen's Park.
11/03/2018 JC
St Paul's would have been a toss-up if Elliott won the PC leadership. With Ford at the helm, this seat remains a safe seats for the Liberals. He posted some of his worst results in the two St. Paul's wards in 2014.
08/03/2018 KXS
A generation ago, this area used to be a Tory stronghold under Larry Grossman.
Times have changed, and no way the Tories win this seat. If the Liberals are decimated to a handful of seats, this would be one of the ones they will hold.
05/03/2018 seasaw
@Innocent bystander, go easy on your prediction, yes, Hoskins has left, yes, not a good sign for Wynne, and though you maybe right, we may get a Liberal opposition or third party, it
03/03/2018 Teddy Boragina
The fact Hoskins is gone makes it more likely Elliott can win, however, that only pushes it to a TCTC
26/02/2018 Innocent bystander
Eric Hoskins has resigned as Health Minister, and will not run in June.
Doesn't want to be in the opposition, probably in the third party? Or doesn't want to waste the energy on losing?
Either way, not a good sign for Wynne.
26/02/2018 MF
Update: Hoskins is not running again. Still, that doesn't fundamentally change the prediction here - it's likely getting the coveted Liberal nomination is the bigger challenge than winning the Liberal citadel of St. Paul's in the general election.
Also, this is Caroline Mulroney's home riding. A generation ago this might have been a good fit but today...forget it.
22/02/2018 Teddy Boragina
Apparently Christine Elliott will run here. She'll likely lose however.
15/01/2018 R.O.
This is a very safe liberal riding and Eric Hoskins is likely to hold the riding for the liberals. opposition has also yet to nominate a candidate but its doubtful any could swing the riding.
08/01/2018 MF
One of the easiest ridings to predict. St. Paul's and Ottawa-Vanier are probably the safest Liberal ridings in Ontario. Home to the 'too educated to vote Tory, too bourgeois to vote NDP' demographic. Eric Hoskins, MD, PhD is a perfect fit for the riding.
2017-12-26 Craig
Safest Liberal seat in Ontario. If this riding is close, the Liberals will be heading into Kim Campbell territory.
Demographically, this is perfect for them - a ?creative class? type, affluent riding with a large number of professionals, while the labour movement is weak enough that the NDP is not a factor. Eric Hoskins is very well suited for them, and this is one of the few places where Kathleen Wynne is probably a significant asset still. Patrick Brown may be trying hard for that demographic, but social conservatism is abhorred here and they still don't forget his record (which he has rebuked).
If the Liberals are heading to another electoral win, I wouldn't be surprised if they top 70% here.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
PCs could make this interesting with the right candidate, but until they nominate someone I think this will stay with Hoskins. This is a very safe Liberal seat regardless, so if Hoskins loses the Liberals may not even get 5 seats.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This along with Ottawa-Vanier is probably the safest Liberal riding in the province. Very much your classical liberal elitist riding, otherwise too rich to vote NDP, too educated to vote Tory (although Tories should win Forest Hill, but lose elsewhere) so easy Liberal win regardless of how they do provincewide and in fact if they do really poorly Eric Hoskins maybe one of the few MPPs they have left to choose from for the next leader.
03/12/2017 Insight
This is likely the safest Liberal seat in the province these days... and there are really not that many safe Liberal seats!

Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster