Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Willowdale


Prediction Changed
2017-12-19 23:19:51
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Cho, Stan

Ramdeen, Randi

Zimmer, David


Incumbent(s):
    Willowdale
   Hon David Zimmer

   (83.51% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    York Centre
   Monte Kwinter

   (16.49% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):109680


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

17637 52.83%
10665 31.94%
3701 11.09%
1315 3.94%
OTHERS 68 0.20%
Total Transposed 33385

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Willowdale

15257
8873
3009
1136
Total Transposed28275

     York Centre

2379
1792
692
179
Others68
Total Transposed5111


Federal Election Result (2015):

Ali Ehsassi
2451953.40%
Chungsen Leung **
1699037.00%
Pouyan Tabasinejad
32037.00%
James Arruda
10252.20%
Birinder Singh Ahluwalia
2160.50%


 

10/01/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
142.114.117.5
Zimmer's cushion is not substantive at 7,000 votes. That's not enough for him to be relaxed and comfortable.
This seat could flip blue easily as chunks of the core Lib. vote stay home, a motivated PC base gtvo, and swing voters vote blue for change.
Zimmer will have the fight of his life ahead of him.
03/01/2018 Dr. Bear
70.55.206.58
David Zimmer has been around since 2003, meaning he has a team, name recognition and a degree of clout in the riding. He won't be so easy to unseat. While Willowdale is affluent and has a Tory past, it's more red-Tory and unlikely to vote PC if they're coming off as Yosemite Sam types. Patrick Brown has done a lot to make the PCs a kinder, gentler party, and has emphasized the 'progressive' in the name. I suspect Brown and co, will do better here than his predecessors, but my gut says edge to Liberals. Still, let's wait and see how things unfold. TCTC.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
75.98.19.133
With current levels I think most ridings straddling Steeles will go PC. Of course support is not solid yet, so let's see if they can hold onto their lead.
21/12/2017 seasaw
99.225.226.230
This riding is too early to call, however, if the PC's were to win 4-5 seats in 416, this would be one of them. They don't need a big vote split to win this riding. Remember, they held this riding till 2003, often winning with big margins, and that was at the same time that Liberal Jim Peterson was winning it with big margins federally. We have to look at the poll numbers in the last week of the campaign to determine this one
17/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
This is one of the more favourable PC ridings in the 416, however NDP is very weak so no splits and also still usually tends to go Liberal. So if the PCs make a breakthrough into the 416 this will be one of the first to fall, but if they struggle in the 416 this will stay Liberal.
17/12/2017 The Jackal
99.237.125.239
One of these seats the PC's will target but unless they are headed towards a big majority this will stay Liberal by a small margin.



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