|Updated prediction: Mainstreet has the NDP polling around 30% (reflecting perhaps Olivia Chow's strong showing in the municipal election here) and second place and the PCs are under 40%. Marke this as a riding that the PCs slip through. It would have stayed Liberal in a Liberal vs. PC race, but should go PC with the Liberals in third.|
|This is a PC-Liberal race and the Liberals are polling about half their 2014 result. The basic math indicates this will swing PC. Traditionally, the NDP have been a complete non-factor in this riding. Federally, this riding was Conservative from 2011 to 2015, and the Federal Liberals actually polled higher in Ontario in 2011 than their provincial counterparts are now. Prediction: 45 PC, 30 LIB, 20 NDP, 5 GRN|
|PCs picked a candidate with the right ethnic background here. The riding is also centre to right leaning except for the Yonge St Condos but the Yonge St Condos won't be enough to pick up seats. The PC will win this one.|
|Calling this PC for a few reasons:|
- Campaign Research poll of Toronto has PCs up 19 in Willowdale, with NDP and Liberals in virtual tie (vote split will secure PC win)
- North York is Ford Country. Rob and Doug both won North York easily during the Municipal Elections.
- Stan Cho, an ethnic candidate who will play well with the large Korean population in the riding.
- Classic Bellweather riding. Went Conservative in 2011 Federal Election, was Conservative during the Mike Harris years and it will be Conservative again during Doug Ford's win on June 7
|Campaign Research poll of Toronto has PCs up 19 in Willowdale, with NDP and Liberals in virtual tie.|
|In what's shaping up to be a watershed election, I have to go with history here; Willowdale has reliably voted with the Government all throughout time. NDP isn't a factor other than to rob some precious votes from the Liberals. With a 30%+ base from the disastrous 2014 election and considerable momentum this time, when CBC is currently calling for the Libs to win 2 seats province wide (although I don't believe that) you can't honestly think this is one of them. Libs probably need to running a campaign to win 30+ seats at least before you get around to this one on the list. The Liberals are not going to win 30 seats. And they are not going to win Willowdale.|
|Something to think about here is that Willowdale picked up some conservative support when the riding boundaries changed since last election. Stan Cho's campaign is also making waves across the province and is not to be taken lightly. No question this will be a tight one, but I think it will just barley go blue. Certainly one to watch on election night|
|Finally a fresh Toronto poll. North York, compared to 2014: |
|@Dr Bear. You made your prediction based on a poll taken immediately after the Liberal budget, the latest Forum poll the numbers are ( 36-30-28 ), PC, NDP, Liberal. If in the last week of the campaign polls are like the former, PC's will win 0-2 416 seats and this won't be one, but if it's the latter, they'll win 7-11 416 seats and this will definitely be one|
|This is a riding where you have large ethnic groups deciding the politics of the riding. Volunteers are discouraged from participating,as incumbents have paid staff to do volunteer work.|
|One thing not being considered is that pc candidate Stan Cho is actually running a serious campaign this election unlike other years when the pc|
|The budget bounce for the Liberals lasted less than a week, and they've fallen back below where they were. |
The Toronto breakdown polling is getting a little stale, but the Tories led the Liberals by better than 2:1 in North York ... when you consider that North York included most of the Liberal strongholds of DV East and West, the north of 401 ridings should all go PC.
|Two of the largest ethnic groups in the area are Persians & Koreans. Neither community has been all that warm about Rob or Doug Ford. But, there are two points in play that might make this riding lean more Tory.|
Federally, the local Persian community rallied behind a Persian candidate Lib against the anti-immigrant Federal Tory stance. Provincially, there is no factor to drive that voting uptick (baring a 2011-like anti-immigrant stance by somebody). The Persian community might sit out this election.
More interestingly, I've already seen PCPO signs in store fronts along the Yonge street strip. If Cho can garner some steam among Korean business people, he could grab this riding even without a Tory overall win.
Zimmer doesn't have that great a ground game & has needed resources sent here from further south in order to get out the vote. With those resources possibly being held down in their own ridings, it could be tough.
Ultimately, its going to come down to what is trending provincially.
|Dr. Bear has made about 20 predictions in the past few days all based on ONE (1!) poll. I'm perfectly willing to believe the race is tightening but it might be wise to wait for other polls to confirm the trend before completely overhauling one's predictions here.|
|Has a history of voting for both Liberals and Conservatives/PCs federally and provincially and is definitely one of the easier Tory pickups in the 416. If the Liberals do implode, the PCs could win here, though the Liberals probably have the edge.|
|@Seesaw: Don't like me using past results? Okay then, let's look at the current poll numbers for Toronto (Lib 39%, NDP 28%, PC 27%). Seeing that the Liberals are well ahead in the 416, and that the PC support is going to be largely locked up in Etobicoke and Scarborough ridings, and that the NDP see most of their Toronto support closer to downtown; I am still comfortable with my Liberal prediction for Willowdale.|
|@Willowdale Girl: Ward 24 is now mostly in Don Valley North riding. Willowdale under present boundaries is basically Filion's ward.|
|I live in the riding of Willowdale but in Ward 24 and the local Councillor David Shiner is Conservative.There are 2 wards here.|
|Perhaps the best bellwether in the city. Very good Tory turf in a year when the trend is with them. Always has been. Lots of Koreans helps Cho. Zimmer doesn't exactly have a high profile after a long time at QP.|
|@Dr. Bear, As I have mentioned in my previous comments, one should not use federal results to predict provincial results, the two are very different, it's also wrong to use municipal results to predict provincial or federal results. In 2014, Ford was running against a fairly well liked John Tory, this year, he's running against a universally disliked Kathleen Wynne. Not saying that the Liberals have no chance in this riding, we have to wait and see how the campaign unfolds before making an accurate prediction. TCTC for now.|
|To A.S.'s point - even Olivia Chow did relatively well in Ward 23 which pretty much is the Willowdale riding now (represented by John Filion, a left-liberal urbanist of sorts). But more importantly this was one of Doug Ford's worst outer Toronto areas too. It's hard to see him taking here it if he couldn't beat Tory in the municipal election. The new neighboring riding of Don Valley North has more potential for Ford.|
|A.S. : I stand corrected. I should've known to double-check DVW as it is logical that a Liberal Premier who is herself far to the left would pick up most of the residual NDP vote. Eg-Lawr I would've thought had a few more champagne socialists. Aside from those two, there are a cluster of 416 seats with 9-12% NDP showings, including this one. So perhaps not the worst, but one of the worst.|
|I don't know what Stevo's thing re Willowdale as the NDP's worst in the 416 is about; the Dippers did far worse in Don Valley West and Eglinton-Lawrence, and even adjacent Don Valley North is shown as underpolling Willowdale slightly. In fact if anything, growth and redistribution works in 'NDPesque' favour; the increasing Asian-tinged transit-friendly cosmopolitanism of the North York Centre corridor is a far cry from Willowdale's more traditional single-family Lastman-burbia impression. Note, of course, that I said 'NDPesque'--in practice, that defaults on behalf of the Liberals around these parts. Oh, and not only did this turf mayorally favour Tory over Ford in 2014, even Smitherman did palpably above his suburban average here in 2010.|
|Willowdale is not the kind of riding that Doug Ford's populist appeal will see much traction. He did terribly here in the 2014 mayoral race. I suspect that the Liberals will hold this seat.|
|Willowdale was comfortably PC throughout the 1990s but demographic changes have made it a very hard slog for them ever since. The very (very) middle-class nature of the riding has made it a death zone for the NDP, to my knowledge the worst in the 416. Chalk it up to a near complete absence of low-income voters, young hipsters, or wealthy champagne socialists that give the NDP a base elsewhere. Although the Tory-friendly pool of north Toronto voters (to the extent that they exist) has shifted westward to York-Centre, I believe a strong enough PC win province-wide should tip this into the blue column. TCTC for now.|
||Cabbagetown Red Tory|
|Zimmer's cushion is not substantive at 7,000 votes. That's not enough for him to be relaxed and comfortable.|
This seat could flip blue easily as chunks of the core Lib. vote stay home, a motivated PC base gtvo, and swing voters vote blue for change.
Zimmer will have the fight of his life ahead of him.
|David Zimmer has been around since 2003, meaning he has a team, name recognition and a degree of clout in the riding. He won't be so easy to unseat. While Willowdale is affluent and has a Tory past, it's more red-Tory and unlikely to vote PC if they're coming off as Yosemite Sam types. Patrick Brown has done a lot to make the PCs a kinder, gentler party, and has emphasized the 'progressive' in the name. I suspect Brown and co, will do better here than his predecessors, but my gut says edge to Liberals. Still, let's wait and see how things unfold. TCTC.|
|With current levels I think most ridings straddling Steeles will go PC. Of course support is not solid yet, so let's see if they can hold onto their lead.|
|This riding is too early to call, however, if the PC's were to win 4-5 seats in 416, this would be one of them. They don't need a big vote split to win this riding. Remember, they held this riding till 2003, often winning with big margins, and that was at the same time that Liberal Jim Peterson was winning it with big margins federally. We have to look at the poll numbers in the last week of the campaign to determine this one|
|This is one of the more favourable PC ridings in the 416, however NDP is very weak so no splits and also still usually tends to go Liberal. So if the PCs make a breakthrough into the 416 this will be one of the first to fall, but if they struggle in the 416 this will stay Liberal.|
|One of these seats the PC's will target but unless they are headed towards a big majority this will stay Liberal by a small margin.|