(100.00% of voters in new riding)
|Well, if one seeks precedent for a Percy Hatfield defeat by the Tories, keep in mind that Ed Philip went from a 2/3 mandate in Etobicoke-Rexdale in 1990 to defeat by John Hastings in 1995. But, come now; the Rae gov't suffered a far steeper slide than one'd come to expect from Andrea Horwath's leadership. For Hatfield to fall thusly in 2018, he'd have to be representing Philip's successor seat, i.e. he'd have to be facing none other than Doug Ford himself...|
|Percy is incredibly visible and incredibly popular. If this election turns out an ONDP government, Hatfield will definitely be made into a cabinet minister.|
|The Liberals finally have a candidate in this riding, Remy Boulbol who had run unsuccessfully for the nomination once Dwight Duncan retired.|
The Liberals made a good call for their candidate. If they decide to deviate from their usual playbook of solely bashing the PCs/Conservatives and ignoring the 50-60%-of-the-vote NDP, they may actually be able to weaken the NDP vote. Remy has a good reputation among typical NDP voters. However, there is palpable disgust among voters about the Wynne government's record and the NDP not achieving anything at all for the riding during its stewardship.
This has the making of a PC pickup.
Mohammad Latif is quite visible in the community thanks to pre-writ advertising and doorknocking, and is ideally positioned to reap the benefits of changing winds. Same as Windsor West, with the prospect of a 33-32-31 split this can go anywhere but I'm calling PC.
|One of the safest NDP risings, if not the safest. The notion that the conservatives would even come close to winning this riding, even if Percy Hatfield retired is ludicrous. Even when the Conservatives won a landslide majority in Ontario in the 2011 federal election they failed to come close to winning this seat or Windsor West. Easy NDP hold.|
|I agree that the NDP getting 80% here is ridiculous, I also feel that calling the PC's here competitive is also ridiculous. Seems every single electionprediciton-go-round, since the very first ones, back when I lived in neighboring Windsor West, I argued with PC/CPC supports who were dead-set certain that this would go blue. Never happened. The only times when things got a little interesting were when the CPC was poised to get a large majority (2011) or when the Liberals started weaning significant support because they were poised to get a large majority (2015). Even then, the NDP were ahead by over 15 points. Nothing like this seems plausible this time, so I suspect a repeat from 2014 with a similar outcome from all parties.|
|Calls suggesting the NDP would be elected with 80% of the vote here are not realistic.|
It is true that the NDP generally have a good reputation in the riding. Yet 10 years ago the NDP were at 24% in this riding. The elections before and after were in the 30% range. Percy's vote of 62% is due to his credibility as CBC Windsor's resident political journalist, his personality, affable nature, respect for opposing viewpoints and goodwill to work across the aisle. Even Joe Comartin who was widely respected federally could not surpass 50% of the vote. And his successor has been completely invisible, advocating for issues that have zero relevance to the people of this riding, and will struggle very hard to retain her support.
If Percy Hatfield runs again, he wins.
If Percy steps down from his nomination, the battle for the seat will be a dogfight.
For the 'Conservatives can't win' crowd - Their federal result here in 2011 was good enough for a win in several other seats due to vote splitting and they have been in 2nd place in all but the 2014 provincial campaign (and that was a squeaker).
While the Trudeau Liberals managed to get 27% of the vote federally, pulling from both the NDP and the CPC, I would doubt that any Liberal candidate, even Dwight Duncan himself, would achieve that in this riding today under the Wynne banner. The Liberals can't even find a candidate at the moment and their focus is on the next federal election (witness the recent appearance of a bus bench from the Liberals' last-and-next candidate)
The PCs are running a brand new face in Mohammad Latif. He's already out working the riding. I expect that he will be rewarded with a record PC vote. The question is whether it will be enough to win. This election, with Percy Hatfield likely to still reach 50%, maybe not.
Once Percy Hatfield retires, doing the same or slightly better may be just what it takes.
|Extremely safe NDP seat, just like neighbouring Windsor West. In fact, these may be the safest seats for any party. With the Liberals largely invisible in southwestern Ontario these days and hated among working-class Ontarians, this should be one of their worst ridings (possibly under 10%). That is despite the fact this was Dwight Duncan's riding. The PC's should not be a factor here either, as they are rarely competitive in Windsor even during their high points. It would not be surprising to see the NDP exceed 70% of the vote, and if things go perfectly for them, 80% may not be out of reach.|
|The NDP should be able to win here in a landslide, last time around they got 62% of the vote. They should get at least 50% this time around|
|This is Dwight Duncan's former provincial riding, but since then the Liberals have crashed and burned in Southwestern Ontario while the PCs are quite weak here so despite its history I expect the NDP to win this in a landslide and the PCs to come in a very distant second.|
|The NDP took 62% of the vote last time around; it wouldn't be a surprise if they improved on that number.|