Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Windsor West

Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:38:00

Constituency Profile








    Windsor West
   Lisa Gretzky

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):118973

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

14001 38.54%
5225 14.38%
15043 41.41%
1171 3.22%
OTHERS 891 2.45%
Total Transposed 36331

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Windsor West

Total Transposed36331

Federal Election Result (2015):

Brian Masse **
Dave Sundin
Henry Lau
Cora LaRussa
Margaret Villamizar


04/05/2018 Brian J
Windsor West is driven by blue-collar work, and is full of low-income folks trying to get by. If that weren't NDP enough, the ongoing strike at the casino isn't going to be solved by switching to the PC's, or back to the Liberals.
Lisa is a great MPP that fights hard for the people, and she's not going anywhere.
28/04/2018 Mike B
This has the making of a PC pickup.
Rino Bortolin is extremely strong downtown. This is exactly where Lisa Gretzky lives and performed previously. But South Windsor will be a ghost town for both the Liberals and NDP with their mutual aversion to balanced budgets and paying one's way. As demonstrated with the recent Anne Jarvis column, areas in Ward 9 that are typically hard to reach are now accessible for candidates like Adam Ibrahim.
With the prospect of a 33-32-31 split this can go anywhere but I'm calling PC. Adam has been working for a year and a half under the radar and that work will pay off.
20/04/2018 Innocent bystander
There are no 'magic Liberals' ... the party is bleeding support faster than red ink, and is a very poor third in Southwestern Ontario.
14/04/2018 PY
This year will mark 15 years since I left Windsor to start my career up the 401 in Toronto. I'm still in contact with some of my old friends and otherwise attend the occasional Toronto-based U of W alumni event (strangely enough, I saw a sign promoting the university while walking to work a little while ago). What's been more surprising to me is how it's been able to both revamp the main campus and establish a presence downtown (which I had the pleasure of seeing for myself last summer) in spite of having an opposition MPP representing the riding, not a government one. On a lighter note, the renovation of the Loop complex also gives me some hope for the future of Windsor's downtown.
Something tells me that with the nomination of Rino Bartolin for the OLP, their central campaign means business. The pressure's going to be on Lisa Gretzky to stickhandle for her political life as well as her cousin-in-law did during his career.
2018-04-1 A.S.
The fact that it was so close in 2014 had more to do with there being a Liberal incumbent to dislodge--and something of an NDP-camp split (their 2011 candidate running as an independent)--than anything. Around these parts, once dislodged, it's hard to re-lodge, particularly when one's brand is toxic--even running a popular local councillor wouldn't help under such a circumstance--however, one must admit that South Windsor at large isn't 'naturally' NDP, as opposed to 'Brian Masse NDP'; so the opposition isn't off base in hoping. Still, I somehow see more of a race for second than a race for first brewing here--even with said popular local councillor.
07/04/2018 Jon
I would have predicted NDP until Rino Bortolin got the Liberal nomination. Many people who dislike Wynne and the Ontario Liberal Party have said they will vote Liberal because they like Bortolin. He'll end up drawing PC voters who don't like Ford.
01/04/2018 Dr. Bear
I lived here for about five years during a time when the area swing from Liberal to NDP (federally). Voters tend to stick with their elected officials and only dump the party once the incumbent steps down. On the provincial scene, it's been taking longer for the NDP to catch up. Now they have, and Lisa Gretzky isn't going to be removed easily.The NDP are polling well in SW Ontario (32% to the PC 39% to the Liberals 20%). Considering that 32% is largely locked up in urban ridings, Windsor will stay orange.
28/03/2018 sh4ring4n
Well, it's more of a tossup now, because of how Rino's running.
25/03/2018 jeff316
Windsor West was an NDP win by a mere 1000 votes or 3 percent of the vote. That's not an NDP safe seat by any means. And now the NDP has to not lose voters to the PCs under Ford, who will play well here. Wynne is unpopular but she was last time too - and this time she's fully lifted the NDP platform for the last two years. This could be a PC win.
09/01/2018 Craig
Extremely safe NDP seat, just like neighbouring Windsor-Tecumseh. In fact, these may be the safest seats for any party. With the Liberals largely invisible in southwestern Ontario these days and hated among working-class Ontarians, this should be one of their worst ridings (possibly under 10%). That is despite the fact this was Sandra Pupatello's riding. The PC's should not be a factor here either, as they are rarely competitive in Windsor even during their high points. It would not be surprising to see the NDP exceed 70% of the vote, and if things go perfectly for them, 80% may not be out of reach.
04/01/2018 seasaw
For now, it looks like the NDP will hang on to this riding, there's an outside chance for the Liberals in this riding, but in order for that to happen a lot of pieces have to come together in a very short time, while it's possible, it's not too probable, NDP will finish first, Liberals will definitely come in second
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This is Sandra Paputello's former riding so has strong Liberal roots, but that was before the OLP imploded south of Kitchener so easy NDP win with the PCs in a very distant second and Liberals in third.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
Another riding that might have been competitive without the Wynne albatross hanging around the Liberals' collective necks.

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