Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Brampton West

Prediction Changed
2018-06-01 20:56:00

Constituency Profile









    Brampton West
   Vic Dhillon

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):101762

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

11600 45.99%
5534 21.94%
6571 26.05%
586 2.32%
OTHERS 930 3.69%
Total Transposed 25221

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Brampton West

Total Transposed25221

Federal Election Result (2015):

Kamal Khera
Ninder Thind
Adaoma Patterson
Karthika Gobinath


27/05/2018 Dr. Bear
Vic Dhillon has been a long time MPP and that's going to curb any NDP surge in this riding. As a result, a potential vote split will help the PCs. I really think this is a three-horse race at the moment, and TCTC.
07/04/2018 A.S.
An electoral-demographic work in progress (most of this riding wasn't even developed prior to Y2K), the present redraw of Brampton West reflects the ghost of Jagmeet through a notional second-place NDP result in 2014--perhaps it's tallies like that which can engender the most hope in those who fear an 'inevitable' Doug Ford 905 sweep, whether by way of victor or by way of spoiler. Of course, as we know from 1995, Cons jumping from third to pole position aren't unheard of--particularly in seats like this one. But, still...
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The post-Ford-wins polls are out, and the results are horrific for Peel Liberals, showing a net swing to the Tories of over 40 points (-18, +24).
If, and admittedly a large 'if', these results are consistent across the region, the Liberal Peel caucus goes from 7 (out of 8 seats) to nonexistent.
27/02/2018 Stevo
Although this seat, like all in Brampton and Mississauga, will generally default to Liberal, the seemingly overwhelming Liberal margins mean nothing here in a Tory wave event. This isn't St. Paul's or University-Rosedale. People here are true Liberal-leaning SWING voters and can, and will, turn on a dime just as they did in the 2011 federal election when *every single Bram/Miss seat* save one (Miss-Erindale, which had already gone Tory in 2008) flipped from Lib to Conservative...and then back to Lib in 2015. With the PCs still well in the polls ahead despite itself, the odds favour a PC pickup.
19/01/2018 Bill
This is widely considered a safe liberal seat, but if the PC wave is strong enough this riding will go Blue. The PC's have nominated Amarjot Sandhu who is a new Canadian but had a large nomination so has a strong start to his race. It will be interesting to see who the NDP nominate as it will be crucial to a PC victory. Vic Dhillon is also rarely to be seen at events in Town and has been widely known to be an absentee MPP so we cannot underestimate a PC win here.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
This is probably the safest Liberal riding of the Brampton ones so as long as the Liberals avoid falling to third they should hold this. But with the polls being all over the place, until we get a clearer picture I will withhold predicting this.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
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