Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

York Centre

Prediction Changed
2017-12-06 00:03:35

Constituency Profile



Baber, Roman

Toutchinski, Igor

    York Centre
   Monte Kwinter

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):100277

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

14556 48.12%
9333 30.85%
4953 16.37%
984 3.25%
OTHERS 425 1.40%
Total Transposed 30250

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    York Centre

Total Transposed30250

Federal Election Result (2015):

Michael Levitt
Mark Adler **
Hal Berman
Constantine Kritsonis


09/01/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
I believe this is one of the Toronto ridings that the Liberals will almost surely lose. I know the riding well, have worked in it in a political capacity, and have canvassed around it. Here are my reasons:
1. In the last federal election, the riding was the closest in the city. The Liberal candidate, on a massive 13.6% swing, won it by less than 1,300 votes. There is a robust PC/Fed. Tory voting base here.
2. The longtime, well-known, and widely liked Liberal MPP, Monte Kwinter, who never lost an election and who has held the seat in its many incarnations since 1985, is not running again due to severe illness. The Libs will need a very strong candidate to have any shot at all. No one has been nominated yet, with 6 months to go.
3. The PC candidate is a young, energetic and ambitious lawyer who has been involved locally for many years, is generous, and capable of holding down a decent group of volunteers. Roman knows the riding inside out, is curious and open-minded, and is close to Patrick Brown. Roman will work very hard to win this riding and is fully aware of the strategic advantages he has and that overall momentum is on his side. He will be ferocious in his determination to win.
4. Minorities here are open and generally receptive to the PC brand. Mark Adler, the previous Tory M.P. was particularly liked by the Filipino community. There are many Russians that Roman Barber will aggressively pursue in the northern periphery of the riding and Roman speaks Russian. The riding's massive Jewish community will also be crucial and Roman is of the Jewish faith as are Kwinter, Adler, and Levitt.
5. A puerile local NDP machine and destitute voting base means that the change market will be that much wider open to the PCs.
6. Again, no Liberal candidate. This is a bad sign. The election is less than 6 months away and without a very robust candidate, strategy, team, and constant volunteer base pounding the pavement, the Liberals will have a very, very slim chance of holding the seat.
7. Apathy among the youth. This riding flipped red because Michael Levitt (Fed. Lib) seized thousands of younger, Millennial voters who never voted before and who were likely fond of Trudeau and core Lib campaign promises of pot legalization/electoral reform/EI support. It is highly improbable that such a wave of youth support will back a provincial Lib. candidate for a wide variety of reasons.
Having written out my reasons, I am now essentially 100% certain that the Liberal party will lose this seat unless they find an incredible candidate, and fight to the death while simultaneously maintaining a solid province-wide showing overall.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
Open Toronto seats are usually a hot commodity for Liberal nomination candidates. Haven't heard anything yet about a candidate. current polling gives to PCs.
19/12/2017 seasaw
Longtime MPP and I believe the oldest person serving in the legislature, Monte Kwinter is retiring. Unlike what previous posters believe, this riding isn't that ripe for the Tories. It's true that federal this riding was very close, but this is provincial and the two are totally different animals. The Tories strong showing here and in Eglinton-Lawrence was due to PM Harper's foreign policy which favoured Isreal. The two ridings have a significant Jewish population. That's not an issue this time and one must keep in mind that the Liberals have won every provincial election here often with greater than 50% support. Nothing will change this time.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Monte Kwinter was popular enough he would have held this had he offered up again, but with him stepping down, this makes this riding open to a PC pickup. Lets remember the federal Tories only lost this by a couple of points and it was one of two 416 ridings (Eglinton-Lawrence is the other) where they got above 40% of the popular vote so if the PCs get all federal Tories and pick up a few swing votes, they will be nearing the 50% mark. So Liberals still could hold this, but if they lose any 416 seats to the PCs, this will be one of the first to fall.
12/12/2017 Dr.Bear
With an incumbent not running and numbers as they stand, I say this will be a PC pick up. I will reassess this riding in a few months, but for now I say a win for team blue.
11/12/2017 Ruth
Longtime Liberal MPP is retiring at a time when this riding has gone steadily bluer and the PC's have a strong candidate. I see a PC landslide.
Kwinter not running again combined with mega unpopular Liberals, I see this as an easy PC pick up.

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