Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-06 00:03:00

Constituency Profile









   Julia Munro

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):94616

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

12085 35.21%
13768 40.11%
6034 17.58%
2132 6.21%
OTHERS 304 0.89%
Total Transposed 34324

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed34324

Federal Election Result (2015):

Peter Van Loan **
Shaun Tanaka
Sylvia Gerl
Mark Viitala


06/06/2018 Jeter84
I just want to add that as a resident of this riding, for 30 years, I have never seen as many signs for a Conservative candidate as I have for Mulroney.
This riding is still a safe PC/Conservative sea but she has good name recognition and there is obviously a strong desire for a new Government.
The NDP will finish a strong second here, however Mulroney should get 50% or more of the vote.
24/05/2018 prognosticator15
A safe seat for PC at present, of Munro and Van Loan, but in future Mulroney should watch out for a strong populist feeling - more social than electoral - of kicking out of power altogether the wealthy 1% elite to which she so starkly belongs - a trend particularly strong among the millenials. This could have made a difference in some of the other ridings. Also, a socially conservative person, similar to Granic-Allen or Monte McNaughton, might have been more fitting here than a pro-sex curriculum candidate. However, Red Tory Mulroney chose a very good place that will vote for any PC this time, although it is a PC vote, and not a Mulroney vote - nor will most her voters be very excited to vote for any Mulroney in future.
11/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
Soon-to-be Minister of *Something* Caroline Mulroney is of course, going to be handily elected most likely with more than 50% of the vote.
27/03/2018 RJC
The Liberals have a pretty solid candidate here, but it's difficult to imagine them picking up a seat like this now, especially with the PCs running the very high-profile Mulroney.
26/03/2018 YS Forecaster
Mulroney wins by a solid margin. Serious talk in the riding is that the Liberal Carruthers really just wants to be elected to Bradford Council, using this provincial run to raise her profile.
20/03/2018 A.S.
For the margin to be as close as it was in 2014 *was* scary, and if the dynamics of that election continued to the present, growth in places like Bradford could have shoved York-Simcoe t/w recount territory. But said dynamics *didn't* continue; so if Caroline Mulroney weren't elected, it'd likelier be through refusing to run for Doug Ford than through defeat.
16/03/2018 Dr.Bear
Star candidate from PC royalty: check
Right-leaning riding: check
Unpopular Liberal party: check
Charismatic PC leader that will never be an embarrassment: umm...
Maybe not every box can be checked off, but there is enough going for Mulroney that she can easily win this riding on her own accord.
01/02/2018 M. Lunn
This could be the riding of the next premier now that Caroline Mulroney is running for PCPO leader. Either way, win or lose the leadership race, she will easily take this normally very blue seat.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
One of the safest PC ridings in the province so would go PC even if Caroline Mulroney was not the candidate. With Mulroney being a star candidate for the PCs, she will almost certainly enter cabinet if the party wins and be a strong contender for the next leader if they lose.
13/12/2017 seasaw
It's true that this riding has been voting Tory since 1995. It is also true that the Tories have by far the best candidate here. However, she doesn't live in the riding and by looking at the past election results, the gap between the Tories and the Liberals has narrowed quite significantly. This is by no means a safe Tory seat. If the Tories do about as well as the last time, they'll take this one, but there's a chance that their campaign will be a Grossman type disaster, in which case this will be one of several tidings that the Liberals will take
Safe riding for the Tories. As well with star candidate Caroline Mulroney

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