Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:38:54

Constituency Profile



    Kenora-Rainy River
   Sarah Campbell

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):32987

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

995 18.74%
639 12.03%
3479 65.50%
198 3.74%
Total Transposed 5312

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Kenora-Rainy River

Total Transposed5312

Federal Election Result (2015):

Bob Nault
Howard Hampton
Greg Rickford **
Ember C. McKillop
Kelvin Boucher-Chicago


03/01/2018 Dr. Bear
With a riding that is new, has a low population, and has an abysmal turn out rate, I have to agree with R.O. that this race could be a toss up. My instincts say that this will ultimately go to the NDP, but if the other two parties get off their duff, find good candidates and put the effort, they could win this. Being small, it takes fewer converts to shift this from one party to another.
22/12/2017 R.O.
This riding remains highly unpredictable for a number of reasons, first off its never existed before under these boundaries and population smaller than a normal riding. secondly its mostly made up of small isolated first nations communities, types of places where they come out in large numbers for band council elections but sometimes provincial elections get overlooked. as the first nations are more used to voting for the person than party as in the case during band council elections . I could see the potential for an independent candidate here although its likely to go with one of the major parties this year.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
As a large First Nation's riding this should be an easy NDP win. Liberals are strong in the urban areas of Northern Ontario, quite weak outside and the PCs only do well in the very southern portions of Northern Ontario so this too far north for them to have any chance.

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