Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Mushkegowuk-James Bay


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:38:58
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

BAILLARGEON, GAETAN

BOURGOUIN, GUY

HUTCHINSON, SARAH

MARSHALL, VANDA

OUELLETTE, JACQUES JOSEPH

ROBICHAUD, ANDR?",cp,750 92,ROMANO, ROSS

SADIQ, FAUZIA


Incumbent(s):
    Timmins-James Bay
   Gilles Bisson

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):30037


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

2533 30.30%
647 7.73%
5038 60.26%
114 1.37%
OTHERS 28 0.34%
Total Transposed 8360

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Timmins-James Bay

2533
647
5038
114
Others28
Total Transposed8360


Federal Election Result (2015):

Charlie Angus **
1597442.90%
Todd Lever
1294034.70%
John P. Curley
760520.40%
Max Kennedy
7522.00%


 

20/05/2018 jeff316
108.161.115.110
Postulating on the location or political affiliation of posters here is simply a red-light warning for a lack of analysis. Yes, Bourgouin is the frontrunner and the NDP is doing well in the polls, with two caveats a) for now, and b) province-wide. These polls have small samples reasonably wide margins of error and the most respected polling firms are showing the tightest races. These polls are not reflective of candidates and local conditions, which in Northern Ontario have been increasing ripeness for PC gains over the past few elections. You don't need many votes for a wide swing in a low population, no-incumbent riding like this. Robichaud may or may not win, but the opening is there from the political analysis and my extensive time on the 11 has confirmed this.
18/05/2018 Dr. Bear
45.72.146.253
Of the two PC comments, one was reporting from central Toronto, the other from New Jersey. Doesn't mean much because people can live and work in different ridings, and people do travel for various reasons. Never the less, I do agree that a PC prediction is ridiculous. The poll numbers just don't support it and the NDP look poised to make gains; mostly at liberal expense but that will secure ridings they previously won. Talk of budget cuts always means pain for the north. People here know that and they are demanding the expansion of services, not contraction.
14/05/2018 NJam101
208.96.95.84
The last two comments predicting a PC win are simply ridiculous. I have a feeling that whoever made those comments is working for or is involved with the PC Party. Although I live in Timmins, I'm in this riding a lot and have been recently. There is absolutely no evidence along Hwy 11 towns at least that large numbers of people are supporting the conservatives. Sure there are a lot more than in 2014 but the candidate isn't mayor of Kapuskasing Al Spacek who did very well in Kap in 2011. But I will say that PC supporters there tend to be quite vocal and actively involved in the election so some people may get the impression that the actions of a few represent the majority.
Most, if not all of the towns between Smooth Rock Falls and Hearst have older populations with people who rely on government programs and public health services for a better quality of life. Doug Ford's threats of cutting the entire provincial budget scares most of them.
I have to remind everyone that the PC candidate got only 7.73% of the votes here in 2014!! Sure it was current Timmins mayor Steve Black but still...
And then there are the First Nations and Indigenous people which account for more than a quarter of the riding's population. They will vote almost entirely NDP. That alone kills any chance of a PC victory. And I have to remind everyone that the NDP canadidate Guy Bourgouin is Metis which means something. Oh, and Charlie Angus is the federal MP of this area and he will be be helping out Bourgouin.
And finally, about 30% of the people here voted Liberal last time. A good chunk of that vote could swing PC but it's still not enough. (much of that vote will go NDP this time)
The Liberal candidate is Ga
13/05/2018 L.O.
196.52.73.94
Robichaud has a HUGE chance to win this riding. He is well known in all communities and people like him. Now that Gills is gone the NPD are left scrambling.....Bourgouin would need a miracle but that won't happen.
11/05/2018 Jeff316
108.161.115.110
Way more buzz up here for Robichaud and Ford than I expected. Very real chance of PC win here. Without the name recognition of Bisson, Bourgouin is just another NDP union stuff. All three will be competitive.
07/05/2018 EL
67.204.197.151
Guy bourgouin is the strongest candidate and the NDP have a strong base of supporters. Robichaud is young and will find support in his past supporters when he ran federally but will not be able to carry the win. Too much support for the NDP. Bourgouin win for sure
28/04/2018 NJam101
208.96.95.84
Just have to add some more to what I wrote before.
This region is huge and nobody is 'local' across the riding. Political parties do matter here and the NDP is currently extremely popular here. The federal MP is Charlie Angus. That alone has huge influence. But current Timmins-James Bay MPP Gilles Bisson has done very well here and got many francophones to switch their support from PC or Liberal to NDP. And Bisson is well liked among the huge Indigenous population.
Guy Bourgouin is a M
15/04/2018 R.O.
24.146.17.189
The ndp will likely win this riding although with few actual voters and being so remote its tough to get a feel for. but currently only pc and ndp candidates nominated for the riding .
25/03/2018 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk-James Bay may well depend more on the local candidate than any other riding in the province. Low populations, large areas, low turnouts and no incumbents mean that any one could win, given the right candidate.
The NDP start off with an edge, but there's no telling until nominations close.
25/03/2018 jeff316
45.72.130.199
The Liberals will carry the coast (save PC voting Moosonee). The NDP will do well in the corridor but will have their votes squeezed Bourgouin is the best bet but the Liberals could squeak it if Robichaud does well in Kap. This could be NDP win at 55-30-10 or it could go Liberal at 37-33-27
25/03/2018 NJam101
63.135.16.204
Definitely a big NDP win and Guy Bourgouin will be the first MPP for the riding. We don't know who the Liberal and PC candidates are but that doesn't matter. No Liberal would have a chance this time and for the PCs, Doug Ford knows next to nothing about this area.
While Bourgouin is Francophone, he is also Matis
19/03/2018 A.S.
207.164.79.93
At least relative to Kiiwetinoong, I wouldn't jump to conclusions about Mushk-JB's NDP 'inevitability'; after all, it's got more of that Hwy 11 non-native territory in the form of Hearst (with its longstanding Franco-Ontarian Liberal lean) and Kapuskasing (which actually went Tory in 2011 thanks to its mayor being the candidate). Though the amount of energy which the NDP has devoted to local First Nations issues in recent years--most especially federally under Charlie Angus--is probably more enough to overcome such counter-forces.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Long time NDP stronghold and the NDP tends to do better here than in Timmins which has been lopped off so easy NDP hold.



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