Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-07 21:03:20

Constituency Profile



Bouma, Will

Felsky, Alex

Toor, Ruby

   Hon Dave Levac

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):132443

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

18899 37.86%
14746 29.54%
13677 27.40%
2007 4.02%
OTHERS 589 1.18%
Total Transposed 49919

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed49919

Federal Election Result (2015):

Phil McColeman **
Danielle Takacs
Marc Laferriere
Kevin Brandt
Rob Ferguson
The Engineer Turmel


17/01/2018 Political junkie
Can't see how this isn't a Tory pick up. Dave Levac and Phil McColeman are very good friends and actually not that far apart politically. Small L and Small C just like the riding itself. They have both basically stayed out of each other's campaigns for the last 10 years. That is not an issue anymore with Levac not running so Phil's team can get behind Bouma. A very popular Levac still barely won the last couple of times against very weak candidates and campaigns. There was a strongly contested nomination fight that has brought a lot of motivated new members especially from Bouma. Riding is also far from blue collar or union anymore. Barring a disaster, Bouma wins, no matter what happens provincially.
2017-12-26 Craig
This is likely the first seat the Liberals will lose (especially with Levac gone), even if they win again province-wide. In fact, they will likely finish third. The question is - who will pick it up?
If the NDP can consolidate support among blue-collar voters, then they would probably be favoured. Otherwise, the PC's should take the seat (and should keep it federally in 2019). It really depends on who get the Levac - but not Liberal - chunk of the vote. I'd say it can't be determined until we know more on who gets what.
21/12/2017 Dr. Bear
Everyone's going to be predicting a PC win here in Brantford, but I say just hold on a second. I see a pattern that has played out elsewhere in SW Ontario, leading to a different outcome.
In the 2014 election, this riding voted 37.6% for the Liberals, 30% for the PC, 27.2% for the NDP. I'd argue that a sizable chunk of that vote (5 - 10%) was a vote for David Levac, who isn't running again. Where that vote goes will determine the winner in this riding. The NDP are third place, but not that far behind the PCs. So I can see the NDP taking this riding, as opposed to the the PC. This is the exact same thing that has previously played out in Niagara Falls, London West and Waterloo (and I'm saying could play out in London North Centre as well). I will reassess this riding in the months to come, when we have a better idea of how the big players are faring in the election, and more specifically in SW Ontario.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
The Liberals will likely fall to third here. In Southwestern Ontario they've taken a big hit and this riding went federally Tory so I think the PCs are heavily favoured to pick this up although if the NDP can get above 30% provincewide and get some momentum they might have a shot as Brantford is a blue collar town with a strong union presence so Howarth's populism is proably more suited to here than Wynne's downtown Toronto liberalism.
11/12/2017 Innocent bystander
Too close to call.
Popular MPP Dave Levac would win comfortably when the party was doing well, and win narrowly when it was doing less well in this Liberal-leaning riding.
Levac is retiring, and the Liberals are doing much less than well; a tough, but not impossible, hold.
10/12/2017 seasaw
The Liberals have won this riding 5 straight times and Levac's retirement will have little impact on the outcome. Liberals have won here when they won the election and when they lost. Unless the PC's are in a majority territory ( can't see it happening now, but we'll see ), this riding shall remain Liberal
06/12/2017 Kathy
With incumbent Dave Levac not running again, I suspect the PCs will pick this one up.

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