Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Burlington


Prediction Changed
2018-04-28 10:39:22
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

BENTHAM, NADINE

DRUMMOND, ANDREW

FIORITO, VINCE

GILCHRIST, JIM

MCKENNA, JANE

MCMAHON, ELEANOR

RUSIN, PETER


Incumbent(s):
    Burlington
   Hon Eleanor McMahon

   (99.21% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Halton
   Hon Indira Naidoo-Harris

   (0.79% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):120569


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

23690 43.37%
20181 36.94%
7880 14.43%
2265 4.15%
OTHERS 611 1.12%
Total Transposed 54628

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Burlington

23573
20086
7792
2250
Others608
Total Transposed54309

     Halton

117
95
88
15
Others3
Total Transposed319


Federal Election Result (2015):

Karina Gould
3222946.00%
Mike Wallace **
2978042.50%
David Laird
63819.10%
Vince Fiorito
17102.40%


 

26/05/2018 John David
24.114.56.172
@ Kyle H, you must only be spending time in the Lakeshore or the wealthy parts of downtown. Many neighbourhoods have plentiful Drummond signs with MacMahon having virtually none at all. In Pinedale, Palmer, Mountainside, and Brant Hills Drummond outnumbers MacMahon 4 to 1. Even in Longmoor, Shore Acres, and Dynes where McKenna is strong, Drummond is easily second place. A Drummond Revolution? Perhaps not. But writing off the NDP based on the past and a specific segment of the city would be naive. Whether or not the NDP win here, they will certainly surprise us in this election.
5/24/2018 Christopher L
184.151.37.135
Yeah, I don't see the NDP winning here - they might break 20 or 25% but this just isn't an NDP-friendly kind of place. Like other reasonably wealthy parts of the 905, it's a broadly centre-right sort of place, and disaffected Liberals are much more likely to move to the Tories than they are to the NDP. With the Liberals down so much across the province, I think this will easily move into the PC column.
5/24/2018 Kevin
72.38.134.66
Even with the NDP on the rise, Burlington is still a PC-Liberal battle. With the Liberals tanking in the polls Province-wide, the PC's are cruising to a victory here. Drive around town, and you'll see Jane McKenna lawn signs outnumber the others 10-1 if you don't believe me.
5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
184.175.13.231
The NDP are seeing increased support in the 905 but it is localized in places such as Brampton, Oshawa and Durham. As well, most polls lump Hamilton and Niagara into the 905 mix and that's where a the NDP are getting their robust numbers. No, Burlington is going to keep their right of center slant, likely swinging PC and sneering across the bay at their Hamiltonian cousins voting NDP.
I'm saying TCTC at the moment because I have a hard time seeing Burlingtonians(?) rah-rah-ing DoFo's name, and I wonder how many 'embarrassed liberals' are going to hold their nose and vote red.
5/22/2018 QDW
104.222.119.49
The latest polls have the NDP picking up huge momentum in the 905 - to the point where they're actually in the running. While I never would have thought it possible that Burlington could go orange, there is clearly mounting support. If the upswing continues, voters looking for alternatives to the Liberals and Ford may feel the NDP is a viable option for the first time. I wouldn't be so quick to write off the NDP. They are already surprising us in this riding and in the surrounding areas, and they may continue to do so.
20/05/2018 jeff316
108.161.115.110
Burlington goes through these cycles where families predominate and this is one of them, and it might keep the Liberals in the game - if Burli didn't like Hudak, it's not going to like Ford. As an aside, why all the NDP calls here? Riding associations for marginal parties (like the NDP in Burlington) have a lot of personnel turnover. No one likes to lose and lose badly YOYOY. Inevitably, each election attracts a new crop of volunteers who think they have the answer to the lack of local success, only to put in a shift over an election or two and realize that the party just isn't competitive in ridings like this. Wash, rinse, repeat.
19/05/2018 Kyle H
24.141.201.77
I live there. There is no Drummond Revolution. I've seen a total of one of his signs so far, compared to an obviously robust PC presence and a middling Liberal one. Stahp.
19/05/2018 The Jackal
99.237.125.239
I am starching my head trying to figure why there are so many NDP predictions here. This is clearly a PC seat and NDP may do some damage especially to the Liberals but not enough to win the seat. This is a 905 sear not SW Ontario.
13/05/2018 JDD
69.165.149.122
The NDP appear to have nominated a truly competent and dedicated candidate this time around. Already, there has been more enthusiasm and more good press for Mr. Drummond than the NDP has received in this riding ever before. Yes, Burlington is traditionally a Tory riding, but there is a growing province-wide sentiment that Ford in not the answer. Mr. Drummond is presenting himself as a viable option to oust the Liberals while blocking Ford - and Burlington may just take him up on that.
09/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
50.92.139.181
A tory riding every election until the last one, even throughout 2/3rds of Liberal reign, this will be one of the first to swing back to the Tories, with certainly a 10 point swing.
25/04/2018 ARR
69.7.254.149
On Tuesday, April 24, Andrew Drummond was officially nominated as the Ontario NDP Candidate for Burlington. The room was packed with enthusiastic supporters and his speech gained a standing ovation. I sensed in the room the true hope that the NDP might really have a chance this time. Drummond is the kind of candidate who can inspire people to support the 'We Can Do Better' campaign. Don't write him off. He will do well at all candidate debates and is committed to knock on as many doors and talk to as many Burlington residents as possible before Election Day. The Liberals and PC's should remember the old adage 'Never underestimate your opponent.'
15/04/2018 A.S.
99.225.48.35
Regarding 1990, it's very much possible that had Burlington not had a PC incumbent in the form of Cam Jackson, it could have gone NDP--but the fact that Jackson was reelected in a landslide shows how that year's vote was more 'anti-Liberal' than 'pro-NDP' per se. 2014, of course, was the archetypal Liberal upset in a Tory stronghold, though the fact that Burlington had become supermarginal in the three consecutive general elections before that should have indicated it wouldn't have been clear sailing--but as in much of Ontario, it's interesting how Hudak's bash-the-poor campaign swung the vote from 2011 to 2014; the more affluent polls close to the Lakeshore remained more or less firm, while the north-of-QEW populist polls went more conspicuously Liberalward. Of course, it's in the latter where Ford populism's banking its fortunes; and as some are claiming, at the expense of the former, which is why the Grits aren't necessarily deemed a one-election blip. Or at least, a one-*consecutive*-election blip...
05/04/2018 C. H.
24.53.244.189
An easy pickup for the PCs with the Liberals struggling in the 905, and the kind of suburban, working-class area where Ford should play well.
05/04/2018 Kyle H
24.141.201.77
The NDP are not going to win Burlington, full stop.
This is not a New Democrat riding in any way. Certain parts of it could drift towards orange - Aldershot, Mountainside, parts of the downtown core and a few other polls - but it isn't enough to overcome the family- and business-oriented upper middle class that dominates the rest of the riding. There simply aren't enough sympathetic voters in the riding to give whoever the candidate will be a win - and no, I have no idea who Andrew Drummond is - unless they're someone who would be atypical for the party, like if Mayor Goldring stepped down to run or something (even then...). It's just not going to happen.
As to who *will* win... hey I'm an optimist, I'll keep it TCTC for now. :)
31/03/2018 Dr Bear
24.114.100.192
@HD, I agree with you completely about this election being one where the NDP might pick up some unexpected seats. However ARR is suggesting that the NDP candidate is some superstar that they
28/03/2018 HD
206.248.135.138
I doubt ARR meant that the NDP won Burlington in 1990, but rather that the political climate of that election meant that the NDP swept seats they had never won or expected to win. This year could be a perfect storm - people are disillusioned by the Liberals and facing a choice of Ford or something different... I'd keep an eye on NDP support this time around - it might just surprise you!
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
The post-Ford polls had brutal news for the Liberals in Halton: a net swing to the Tories of over 30 points, compared to the 2014 results.
One Liberal might find a magic formula to survive the wave, but at the moment, its far more likely that all 4 seats go to the PCs.
22/03/2018 MF
69.158.152.4
Don't recall the NDP winning Burlington in 1990.
Right now I see this as a toss-up between the Liberals and PCs. While this is a traditional Tory seat and 'the numbers' right now would put this back into the PC column. Burlington is not as 'elite' as Oakville but I'm not sure if Doug Ford will fly here or not. Under Christine Elliott this would have been just about the lowest hanging fruit.
22/03/2018 Dr. Bear
104.247.240.166
Remember the Bob Rae victory? What on Earth are you talking about? The PCs won Burlington in the 1990 election with over 52% of the vote; one of only 20 seats they got in that election.
Now to be serious, prior to Doug Ford winning the leadership race, I thought this was going to swing back to the PCs. It's quite an affluent swing riding that doesn't care for the current Liberal government, yet really can't behind the blow-hard populism of Dougie and Co. This one will be up in the air until the actual race shapes up in the months to come. As for the NDP winning in Burlington: not a chance.
21/03/2018 ARR
69.7.254.149
Rumour has it that there will be a fresh, new NDP candidate in Burlington this time around by the name of Andrew Drummond. With his sound knowledge of politics, his debating skills, and his concern for the working poor, he just may have a chance. Remember the Bob Rae victory!
11/03/2018 jeff316
45.72.137.201
Brown leader + no McKenna = PC gain
Ford leader + McKenna = Liberal hold, easily
29/01/2018 JC
99.229.207.55
Before the Patrick Brown meltdown, I would say McKenna would likely win this back with ease. With the PC in implosion mode and McKenna's close tie to Brown (one of the first MPP/former MPP to support Brown), McMahon is now back in contention. NDP is not a factor here.
10/01/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
142.114.117.5
Jane will take the seat back, she lost it by a narrow margin in the last election, is very personable, dynamic, and energetic.
She will fight tooth and nail to get her seat back. Hands down. I am certain she is determined and has learned many lessons in the last few years an due to her loss.
The Libs will have a herculean effort of holding a suburban, mortgage belt seat with as narrow a cushion as they have here.
08/01/2018 MF
69.159.31.101
A traditionally PC outer GTA riding lost by Hudak. If the Tories can't regain this, Patrick Brown is done as leader.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
This is a centre-right suburban riding so it only goes Liberals when the Tories mess up badly so with Wynne's unpopularity and Brown staying out of trouble so far, this should be ripe for picking up. Even if the Liberals win a minority, they would probably still lose this one.
06/12/2017 Random Voter
24.141.143.169
Burlington voted Liberal for the first time since this Riding's creation, and the voters have buyer's remorse. Tourism Minister for their MPP or not, this should be one of the first Progressive Conservative pick-ups. Premier Wynne is just too low in the polls to hold on here.



Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster