Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-10 21:13:08

Constituency Profile



Stiles, Marit

   Cristina Martins

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):102360

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

16272 45.61%
2665 7.47%
14322 40.15%
1784 5.00%
OTHERS 631 1.77%
Total Transposed 35674

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed35674

Federal Election Result (2015):

Julie Dzerowicz
Andrew Cash **
Carlos Oliveira
Dan Stein
Miguel Figueroa
Chai Kalevar


10/01/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
This will be a ferocious fight. Both the Libs and the NDP have the capacity to win this riding, and they know it. I have lived in this riding and know it well, here are my thoughts:
Lib advantages: Historically, it's been one of their fiefdoms, their brand is strong here. They've been incumbents for a long, long time and the local machine is robust.
Minorities, particularly Portuguese and Italians who are numerous, have generally voted Liberal routinely and are loyal. One of my old neighbours is an elderly Portuguese gentleman who 'always' votes Liberal, no matter what. Simply because they were the government when he arrived and he feels an obligation and affinity for the party for 'letting him in.' - Provincial/federal differentiation means little here.
This loyalty to the Lib. brand is strong.
NDP: The new, fresh kids on the block. They have a school trustee as a candidate, so some name recognition. The party did well with Andrew Cash federally and he would have been a much stronger candidate in my opinion but it can be won.
Millennials increasingly call the area home and are philosophically inclined to the NDP. Lots of younger professionals as well and academics live in the riding who are sympathetic to a social-democratic platform. NDP will need to really mobilize and fight door to door to win this but they have a very good shot.
I can predict that if the NDP fail to win Davenport we will have a majority PC government or a minority Lib one.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
We have not seen as much of a jump of defeated NDP MPs running for provincial nominations, such as what we are seeing with the PCs and former Conservative MPs. If Andrew Cash runs this will be interesting. But I do think with current numbers it is going NDP.
20/12/2017 Max N
I believe that the New Democrats are the slim favourites in this riding. This riding has not gentrified as robustly as other central Toronto neighbourhoods which could make the riding more receptive to the New Democrat platform. Marit Styles has the name recognition as the local school trustee and as a high profile NDPer regularly on TV and radio.
16/12/2017 seasaw
NDP has high hopes for this riding, but the Liberals have experience and deep roots in this riding. I know that Marit Stiles is a capable candidate, but won't be able to overcome the Liberal strength in the riding. This will be close, probably 3 digits, but a win for the Liberals
14/12/2017 ML
The NDP selected the very high profile Marit Styles as their candidate. Yet, I wouldn't count out Martins to retain the riding. Martins' connections to the large - albeit slowly dwindling - local Portuguese community are a key asset. Still, if the NDP campaigns better than they did in Toronto in 2014, this riding will likely be the first to switch to orange.
This is one of those classic swing NDP-Lib ridings which went Lib in 2014. But the NDP is running a very strong candidate in Marit Stiles this time and the Liberal incumbent doesn't even live in the riding..

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