Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-05-29 09:47:00

Constituency Profile












   Cristina Martins

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):102360

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

16272 45.61%
2665 7.47%
14322 40.15%
1784 5.00%
OTHERS 631 1.77%
Total Transposed 35674

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed35674

Federal Election Result (2015):

Julie Dzerowicz
Andrew Cash **
Carlos Oliveira
Dan Stein
Miguel Figueroa
Chai Kalevar


5/28/2018 Ian
This seat went Liberal by roughly 5% in the wave 2014 provincial and 2015 federal elections. With the recent NDP surge shown in the polls, I feel that this neighbourhood is sufficiently working class and not bourgeois enough to be a Liberal hold. I predict a 8-10% NDP win here.
The slide in Liberal numbers and jump in NDP support will see this riding go back to the NDP on election night.
2018-05-2 Bza
Davenport has a history of electing NDP in wave or high-water mark years. It went NDP in 2011 and was lost by a 5% margin in the last election.
With the NDP likely to make big gains in Toronto, I would expect this one to end up back in the NDP column.
The number of Liberal seats will be 2 to 7 seats and this will not be one of them ..the NDP will win Davenpost and will not even close...LISPOP had given it to the NDP
21/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Campaign Research poll of Toronto has NDP up in Davenport, but by less than the margin of error.
19/05/2018 C. H.
With the NDP losing to the OLP by only 5 points in 2014 it's hard to imagine them losing in 2018 with the political winds as they are.
17/05/2018 DavPC
The PC's will get more votes here because Davenport North's large working class immigrant community likes Rob Ford. These are the 'people' the PC speaks too. Davenport North ward 17 voted strongly for the Fords twice in 2010 and 2014. They like his brother Doug Ford too. The PC's won't win here but will take enough votes away from the NDP and Liberals to make this riding too close to call. Expect the PC votes to rise here if not double the percentage of votes from last time in Davenport.
17/05/2018 The Lobster
While Beaches--East York and Spadina--Fort York have become less NDP-friendly in recent years, Davenport (and, to a lesser extent, York South--Weston and Humber River--Black Creek) have become more NDP-friendly. Give Martins's unpopularity, Stiles's high profile, the marginal nature of the seat last time, and the general shift of progressive voters from LPO to NDP, this seat rivals Sudbury for being the easiest NDP pickup.
16/05/2018 MF
With the NDP emerging as the main 'progressive' option in this election, Davenport will be an NDP pickup.
15/05/2018 Danny
This riding is a sea of Marit Stiles signs. Ipsos just polled the 416 and has the NDP at 38%, PCs at 34%, and the Liberals at 26%. Even if the bottom wasn't dropping out for the Liberals, I'd still call this for the NDP on the strength of Stiles' candidacy. This should be called for NDP, as should Parkdale High Park and Beaches-East York.
11/05/2018 LVF
The incumbent does not have a strong connection to the community: she doesn't even live in the riding.
My staunch liberal neighbours across the street have a Stiles sign up.
I've never seen an NDP sign on their porch in 40 years of living here, which tells me this riding will flip back to NDP, as it has done before.
This will be a NDP flip and the NDP will win going away...not even close
09/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Finally a fresh Toronto poll. Old Toronto, compared to 2014:
Liberals -14
PCs +7
NDP +3.5
09/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
This is a strange riding, where for years both provincially and federally, it seems that the NDP only ever seems to threaten strength here; never actualizing their seemingly full potential to snatch it from the Liberals. The Tories never have a chance, but most of the time it seems the NDP doesn't in the end either. Given the current dynamics of this race, with the NDP polling well in Toronto and the Liberals' increasing difficulty in cracking 30% province wide, I'm going to call this for the NDP...but I would not be shocked if the Liberals somehow found a way to keep this given the incumbent's connection to the community here. Interesting speculation of Stevo's that the populist PC's could siphon away some populist NDP votes...that is not so far fetched. 70% Chance of NDP victory, 30% chance of Liberal victory.
Pollara poll shows the NDP at 30%...This riding will flip to the NDP
30/04/2018 ML
While I agree with the majority of commenters that Stiles is the favourite, I don't think she has this in the bag. Martins, after all, is the incumbent, thanks in large part to the large, old and loyal Portuguese community who are the first ones to the polls on election day. If I were a betting man, I'd pick Stiles, but anything can happen in the next five weeks.
28/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberals won The 6ix by 26 points in 2014; now they're running third, down 43%.
Disaffected Liberals look to be breaking to the PCs over the NDP by a 3:2 ratio, but that will be more than enough for the NDP here.
21/04/2018 ottawa99
Interestingly, Doug Ford won one of the two municipal wards that make up this riding in 2014, and even did a bit better in the other one than in the wards that make up Parkdale-High Park and Trinity-Spadina. That being said, not everyone that voted Ford is necessarily going to vote PC. Additionally, going back to the mayoral election, he won a plurality but not a majority (42%) in the northern ward, and finished third (at 24%) in the southern one. I would thus be shocked to see the PCs take this. But I wouldn't be surprised to see their numbers increase quite a bit, potentially cracking the 20% mark for the first time in ages. Given the populist campaign on which the NDP ran last time, I could see more of these votes coming from the NDP. I thus think this may be closer (between the Liberals and NDP) than many are expecting. Nonetheless, based on the strong local candidate and fairly good recent polling numbers for the NDP in the 416, they definitely have the edge here.
13/04/2018 Anthony
This riding should not be too close to call. Marit Stiles will easily win here, she is well known and active within the community. The liberal vote is collapsing all across Ontario and even Toronto. The liberals were only able to take this seat because of mistakes made by the NDP campaign during the last election, and I doubt Andrea Horwath would make the same mistake in alienating Toronto voters.
Stiles will win this due to her high profile and due to the concentration of NDP resources
The candidate,Marit Stiles is a star candidate...and very active in the riding. The Liberals are collapsing and the NDP vote in this riding will increase
01/04/2018 Dr. Bear
Latest Forum poll puts the NDP ahead of the PC in Toronto, and well behind the Liberals (Lib:NDP:PC 39:28:27). Seeing that NDP vote will be concentrated into a few ridings, I'm willing to bet that anything that was marginal last time will swing NDP this time. I'll keep watching the polls to see if this trend holds up and reassess if needs be.
24/03/2018 Observer
This riding at the end of March: seems to be leaning NDP. Two reasons, one: Liberal incumbent has not officially declared. However, it is most likely that Martins will run here but this lack of confirmation and readiness gives the NDP candidate Marit Stiles the upper hand in terms of getting out volunteers, essentially giving her a head start. As her social media feed will remind you, she is quite active in the community. This leads to the second point: strong candidate from the NDP. Marit stiles was the former NDP president and the current TDSB trustee. This means that she has the ability to use these high profile positions to propose herself to constituents in an ability no other candidate has. Although this riding seems to be more forgiving to an unpopular government, a star opposition candidate could rock the floor. But to be fair, let's not forget the PC's. They are definitely at play here. A riding prediction by City News showed that Davenport could actually go PC. But from the point of sheer numbers, this seems like a big stretch, even for such a popular party.
22/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Marit Stiles will win here. While the fight will look ferocious Liberal fortunes are plummeting and Martins won't survive. Its too bad. Stiles is such a cold warrior.
19/03/2018 Stevo
A.S. : considering the entire 416 is basically one giant 'escalading condo development' and has been for many years, I'm not sure the presence of condos really favours one party over another anymore. Presumably some NDP voters buy condos as well, perhaps at higher rates than Liberals since they tend to be lower-income and cannot afford detached or town homes. What may help the Libs here is that some blue-collar NDP voters will be attracted to Ford Nation thereby weakening the NDP total. For that reason alone I give the Grits the edge here as long as the party's province-wide support doesn't fall below 25%.
18/03/2018 A.S.
Hard to believe that little over a decade ago, this was deemed to be a bombproof Tony Ruprecht Liberal stronghold. One impediment en route to an NDP takeback to consider: escalating condo development at the southern Dufferin/Queen end. One impediment en route to a Liberal hold: potential token troll-Tory inroads at the northern Ford Nation end.
14/03/2018 Demarcoa
Seems like a solid candidate for an NDP pick-up. Liberals are low in the polls compared to last election, and this riding is always between these two parties. If the NDP are gaining seats it is through situations like these.
24/01/2018 MF
Davenport is the most likely NDP pickup in Toronto. With its mixed young urban professional and Portuguese/Italian working class demographic, it looks like the Trinity-Spadina of 30 years ago. Jonah Schein only lost this narrowly in the ONDP's 'screw Toronto' strategy, surely they will not make that mistake again. With Kathleen Wynne tacking leftward however on the minimum wage, pharmacare for under 25's etc., the Liberals may be able to take this. Leaving this TCTC for now.
10/01/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
This will be a ferocious fight. Both the Libs and the NDP have the capacity to win this riding, and they know it. I have lived in this riding and know it well, here are my thoughts:
Lib advantages: Historically, it's been one of their fiefdoms, their brand is strong here. They've been incumbents for a long, long time and the local machine is robust.
Minorities, particularly Portuguese and Italians who are numerous, have generally voted Liberal routinely and are loyal. One of my old neighbours is an elderly Portuguese gentleman who 'always' votes Liberal, no matter what. Simply because they were the government when he arrived and he feels an obligation and affinity for the party for 'letting him in.' - Provincial/federal differentiation means little here.
This loyalty to the Lib. brand is strong.
NDP: The new, fresh kids on the block. They have a school trustee as a candidate, so some name recognition. The party did well with Andrew Cash federally and he would have been a much stronger candidate in my opinion but it can be won.
Millennials increasingly call the area home and are philosophically inclined to the NDP. Lots of younger professionals as well and academics live in the riding who are sympathetic to a social-democratic platform. NDP will need to really mobilize and fight door to door to win this but they have a very good shot.
I can predict that if the NDP fail to win Davenport we will have a majority PC government or a minority Lib one.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
We have not seen as much of a jump of defeated NDP MPs running for provincial nominations, such as what we are seeing with the PCs and former Conservative MPs. If Andrew Cash runs this will be interesting. But I do think with current numbers it is going NDP.
20/12/2017 Max N
I believe that the New Democrats are the slim favourites in this riding. This riding has not gentrified as robustly as other central Toronto neighbourhoods which could make the riding more receptive to the New Democrat platform. Marit Styles has the name recognition as the local school trustee and as a high profile NDPer regularly on TV and radio.
16/12/2017 seasaw
NDP has high hopes for this riding, but the Liberals have experience and deep roots in this riding. I know that Marit Stiles is a capable candidate, but won't be able to overcome the Liberal strength in the riding. This will be close, probably 3 digits, but a win for the Liberals
14/12/2017 ML
The NDP selected the very high profile Marit Styles as their candidate. Yet, I wouldn't count out Martins to retain the riding. Martins' connections to the large - albeit slowly dwindling - local Portuguese community are a key asset. Still, if the NDP campaigns better than they did in Toronto in 2014, this riding will likely be the first to switch to orange.
This is one of those classic swing NDP-Lib ridings which went Lib in 2014. But the NDP is running a very strong candidate in Marit Stiles this time and the Liberal incumbent doesn't even live in the riding..

Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster