Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Algoma-Manitoulin


Prediction Changed
2017-12-16 20:12:42
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

FOX, CHARLES

LEE, TOMMY

MALLON-FERGUSON, KALENA

MANTHA, MICHAEL

TILSON, JUSTIN

TURNER, JIB


Incumbent(s):
    Algoma-Manitoulin
   Michael Mantha

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):68480


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

6504 24.51%
4589 17.30%
14171 53.41%
828 3.12%
OTHERS 441 1.66%
Total Transposed 26533

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Algoma-Manitoulin

6504
4589
14171
828
Others441
Total Transposed26533


Federal Election Result (2015):

Carol Hughes **
1651639.90%
Heather Wilson
1411134.10%
André Robichaud
982023.70%
Calvin John Orok
9272.20%


 

5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
184.175.13.231
This has become safe NDP territory both federally and provincially. Nothing going to change now.
09/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
50.92.139.181
Even in the dark Hampton days, the worst result the NDP could turn in here was still around 30%. With the NDP flying much higher these days, the obvious advantage of incumbency and a steady (though not spectacular) province-wide campaign behind it, the result here shouldn't really be in doubt.
06/05/2018 A.S.
99.225.48.35
Put it this way: if Carol Hughes can hang on federally, Mantha will absolutely hang on provincially. But it's interesting to note that prior to Mantha, the provincial entity known as 'Algoma-Manitoulin' had *never* gone NDP. (A little by default, though, given how the present seat essentially combines pre-1999 Algoma-Manitoulin and just plain Algoma, the latter having been Bud Wildman's Dipper stronghold for nearly a quarter century.)
20/04/2018 R.O.
24.146.17.189
Michael Mantha will likely hold the riding for the ndp , no pc or liberal candidates even nominated yet .
24/03/2018 NJam101
63.135.16.204
Michael Mantha will win. I will copy and paste my comment from the last election but take out a few sentences as it hasn't changed a lot.
Michael Mantha will easily win again and this time with a larger percentage of the votes. Mantha is bilingual and is really liked as an MPP. The riding is interesting because it is very rural, population is spread out and the largest community is Elliot Lake. The riding contains Manitoulin Island, along Hwy 17, North Shore of Lake Huron towns, along much of Lake Superior (Wawa, etc.) and isolated towns such as Chapleau, Dubreuilville, Manitouwadge and Hornepayne. The Northern portion of the riding is very strongly NDP. The very southern portion has pockets that are more to the right, especially Manitoulin, but Mantha will still do quite well throughout.
2017-12-26 A BCer
64.180.22.208
Easy re-election for incumbent NDPer Michael Mantha.
17/12/2017 The Jacal
99.237.125.239
This is easily one of the top 5 safest ridings for the NDP in Ontario. The Liberals and PC's will be jockeying for second place.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Considering how unpopular the OLP is in Northern Ontario, especially the rural areas and the PCs are fairly weak this far north, this should be an easy NDP hold.



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