Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:32:14

Constituency Profile



Martin, Robin

   Mike Colle

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):113150

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

22855 54.80%
14079 33.76%
3060 7.34%
1305 3.13%
OTHERS 407 0.98%
Total Transposed 41706

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed41706

Federal Election Result (2015):

Marco Mendicino
Joe Oliver **
Andrew Thomson
Matthew Chisholm
Ethan Buchman
Rudy Brunell Solomonovici


10/01/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
The only genuine shot of the PCs picking this seat up is if Colle retires, a poor candidate replaces him, and the Libs melt down in the broader campaign.
08/01/2018 MF
Is Mike Colle running for re-election? He has a strong machine and is quite personally popular in the riding. I would give him the edge. Even Joe Oliver, in his failed attempt at a political comeback, didn't think he could beat Colle in the riding he represented federally and opted to run for the PC nomination (unsuccessfully) in a neighboring riding.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
Liberal call might be premature here. We do not even know if the Liberal incumbent is running for re election here. This is one of the better seats for the PCs in Toronto and based on their current polling levels in North York they would win it.
21/12/2017 seasaw
To all those who use the recent federal elections results to predict what's going to happen provincially, remember, on the federal level this riding was Liberal since inception in 1976 until 2011 federal and only 2 of them were not landslides. Recent success of the federal Tories was primarily because of Mr Harper's pro Isreal foreign policy, and this riding has a significant and influential Jewish community. Provincially this has been close only once in '07 and that was because of the school funding issue which was popular in the Jewish community. The PC's have a better shot of winning at least fifteen 416 ridings before they win this.
17/12/2017 The Jackal
If the numbers stay the way they are or spike a bit for the PC's this will be a pick up for them.
This riding will of course be a contest. It went Blue federally before, and Mike Colle doesn't have the luxury of being in cabinet. Combine that with the PCs polling almost tied with the Liberals in Toronto and in North York the PCs are consistently ahead. I agree it wont be easy but if the PCs win a majority they are taking this riding with them.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
I wouldn't call this one so quickly for the Liberals. In the past it was a safe Liberal riding, but recently it has been one of the most favourable ridings in the 416 to the Conservatives. Otherwise if the PCs make any breakthrough in the 416 this will be one of the first to fall to them. Only if they get shut out or win fewer than 3 seats in the 416 will this stay Liberal so the Liberals can hold this, but it is far from a lock. After federally the Tories got over 40% here and in all likelihood they will probably do somewhat better provincially thus why too early to call this.
11/12/2017 seasaw
No contest here, the Liberals are going to take this one

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
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