|I've noticed a lot more NDP signs up than usual. And Horwath has been to this riding twice recently. That indicates to me that the NDP thinks it's in play. I'm not so sure. I think too much ground to make up for them. It should go blue but not because of the effort of the candidate, who I think has run a relatively weak campaign.|
|Well time to update here based on the dramatically changed scenario. The Liberals are out of the game. Mainstreet has the NDP just 5 points behind the PCs. So it looks like the NDP history has been revived, but most likely not able to put them over the top. Mark this down as a riding that the PCs take with less than 40% due to vote-splitting among anti-Conservative voters.|
|Campaign Research poll of Toronto has PCs up 12 on the NDP in Etobicoke Centre, with the Liberals a distant third.|
|Milczyn was a popular and excellent city councillor, never in the limelight, just doing his job. Unfortunately in provincial and federal politics all the reps toe the party line to the letter. His work as MPP is been invisible. The name recognition will still help but the party tag will be a lead weight. It will also help that Trotter has mede no impact; the orange signs are on the same lawns as last time; his party doesn|
|I think this riding will be close but will give the PC's the edge over the Liberals here. Not a lot of lawn signs up so far. Winning margin likely|
|I know this isn't the most Doug Ford friendly part of Toronto, but it's hard to see the Milczyn holding on here on the basis of current polling - the Liberals are down at least 15 points in Toronto from 2014 and even if they outperform here it still might not be enough. I'd predict a result similar to Iggy's defeat in the 2011 federal election: something like 40 PCs, 35 Liberals, and 20 NDP.|
|I understand the reasoning for marking this seat as Liberal vs. the other two Etobicoke seats; I just think that the reasoning is absurd in the face of the data and recent history. |
Yes, this was the only part of Etobicoke to vote against Doug when he ran for mayor. But that's more of a testament to the fact that Lakeshore prefers their conservatives be of the genteel boardroom variety (a la John Tory) rather than the scrappy populist variety. It doesn't mean that Lakeshore has the greatest reticence to voting Conservative. In fact, perhaps the opposite is true - a point underlined by Michael Ignatieff's humiliating loss to a Conservative nobody here federally in 2011.
|There's no world where the Liberals can run 15-20 points behind the PCs provincially and hold Etobicoke-Lakeshore. Not even remotely possible. Barring a huge Liberal comeback or PC implosion, Hogarth wins easily.|
|No way the Liberals are winning here, Ford Nation is very strong out west.|
|I agree that this is the most likely of the Etobicoke seats to vote Liberal, but it is still waaay too early to call it for the Liberals. Like Willowdale, this seat will vote PC in the case of a sweep, which may be occurring. Or more accurately, a Liberal collapse may be occurring. Because an increased NDP vote won't help the Liberals here either.|
|Finally, a fresh Toronto poll; Liberals down 18 points in Etobicoke, PCs up 17.|
And as for any thought of 'Oh, but there's a Liberal cabinet minister incumbent' ... this is the riding that dumped Michael Ignatieff when he was federal Liberal leader ... not sentimental at all.
|If polls are any clue, this could be one of only a few suburban Toronto seats the Liberals can keep in June. Many commenters are noting the PC's election win the 2013 by-election as an indication of the PC strength in this area. However, two important things to consider: First, in the last five years, condo development along the Humber lake corridor has exploded, bringing in thousands of new 20-and-30-somethings with urbane and socially liberal inclinations. Secondly, by-election turnout is notoriously low, and in particular among new and younger voters. Unlike 2013, expect the voter turnout in June to be much higher along the younger voters of the Humber condo corridor.|
|The Liberal budget bounce was short-lived, and they ended up worse than they stood previously. |
That, and the fact that the PCs were polling 50% in Etobicoke last summer, long before there was any thought that a local boy could be the leader, point to a PC victory.
|One of the most Tory areas in the 416 and in Etobicoke with Ford as PC leader. This will probably stay Liberal if Wynne manages to pull off a victory province-wide, but should likely go PC otherwise.|
|This is a swing riding and with only a 3800 vote change from Lib to PC, a stronger NDP turn out and a solid PC Candidate in Christine Hogarth this should be classified as a leaning PC or too close to call this early on.|
|Peter Milczyn is a good MPP. But goodbye. I don't think people assessing this and other Toronto ridings get the nature of the phenomenon that is presented. Whats forgotten is that Doug Ford got 330,000+ votes when he ran for Mayor in 2014. Those people haven't gone away. That's more than any Tory leader has received in recent memory. If you apportion those votes on a reasonable basis, the splits are ugly for Liberals and ridings like Etobicoke Lakeshore are easy gains. Doug is going to win more than a handful of seats in the City.|
|If you want to know what made Doug Ford mayorally stronger in Ward 6 than Ward 5, it's the vestiges of former blue-collar NDP strength as neighbourhoods like Alderwood went overwhelmingly Ford-ward--ironically for progressives, those forces which decimated this onetime provincial NDP stronghold could also insulate it against a provincial Ford Nation assault. Of course, the Doug Holyday byelection meant nothing should be taken for granted; OTOH the same could be said about the surprisingly sound general-election Holyday defeat--and at the moment under Milczyn, Etobicoke-Lakeshore feels like it carries more Liberal equilibrium than perhaps it really should. Yeah, condos and gentrification help; but what might also help is Milczyn's own technocratic pragmatism--after all, he previously served as one of the more disarmingly competent members of Mayor Ford's exec. (Yeah, just the thing to scare or jade NDP-type progressives into warning us of the prospect of a Lib-PC accord.)|
|The least likely of the Etobicoke ridings to go PC; the elites of the Kingsway and the condo dwellers of Mimico and Humber Bay Shores will likely do Ford in. It's hard to any riding that Ford didn't carry municipally vote PC now. There used to be an NDP vote in the Lakeshore area but it's pretty much evaporated, making the Liberals the default option for anti-Conservative voters.|
|Doug Ford being elected PC leader will upset some long held assumptions for party strength for sure. However, the expectation that he will clean the clock in Etobicoke will likely be unmet. Yes, he did very well in his/Rob Ford's home turf of Etobicoke North Wards 1 & 2 in 2014, but he actually lost three of the other four wards in Etobicoke. In fact, he lost Etobicoke Lakeshore Ward 5, Milczyn's home ward, to Tory by quite a large margin.|
The demographics of Etobicoke Lakeshore is more akin to downtown ridings than suburban ridings. If the Liberals are to hold on to one Etobicoke riding, it will be Lakeshore.
|Of the three Etobicoke ridings, this one is the least likely to go PC because of the Doug Ford effect. Ford did not do well in these parts in the mayoral race and demographics don't favor his kind of politics. If this does go blue, it's because of a good candidate and a good provincial campaign by the PCs. TCTC for now.|
|Surprisingly, this is probably the safest of the three Etobicoke seats for the Liberals, despite the PC history here. Interestingly, Ward 5 (north of the QEW) was better for John Tory and worse for Doug Ford than the lakefront Ward 6. That said, the results of the PC leadership is likely neutral here - Ford might do better in working-class areas but would get demolished in the higher density and lakefront areas, while Mulroney would have the opposite problem (and Elliott may get a bit of both).|
Regardless, with the NDP very weak here, I can't see the PC's getting much above 40% of the vote (which seems to be their high water mark), and that likely still won't be enough to top the Liberals.
|The new condos in the south-east portion of the riding make this less winnable for the PCs than in the past. They are full of mostly young people, which make it more competitive/secure for the Liberals. The fact that it is one of the largest ridings in the province (based on population) makes the local candidate matter less, as this area seems to vote based on the leader and party campaign. The Lakefront communities (Long Branch, Mimico and New Toronto) used to be the high area for the NDP, but much of those union factory jobs have left the area, so they are less of a factor.|
||Cabbagetown Red Tory|
|A very difficult prediction...|
PCs: This is a very winnable riding for them, but it will require a huge effort. Despite the strategic momentum suiting the Tories, there is a large Lib. voting block here.
Even though the very well known and popular Doug Holyday picked it up in a 2013 by-election, the riding went back red in the general (albeit thanks to a terrible platform and unease about Hudak).
This will be a house-by-house battle and will all come down to the broader campaign swaying less partisan voters.
|The PC's have a good shot at taking this riding. They have a good candidate, Christine Hogarth. Peter Milczyn, however, is personally popular. We're going to have to wait and see how the campaign goes before we make an accurate prediction|
|A rather mixed riding with the wealthy condos and waterfront properties in the south which tend to be well educated so favour Liberals but fairly wealthy so favour PCs. The North is more your multicultural middle class suburban so usually favours Liberals but potential for PCs as well as the NDP is strong enough to split the votes but not win. At this point I would give the Liberals a slight edge here, but any shift in favour of the PCs would be enough for them to take it or if the NDP gains ground, they could create the splits for a PC win.|