Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-16 20:16:36

Constituency Profile



Hogarth, Christine

   Hon Peter Z. Milczyn

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):115437

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

22916 47.59%
16420 34.10%
6032 12.53%
1971 4.09%
OTHERS 817 1.70%
Total Transposed 48157

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed48157

Federal Election Result (2015):

James Maloney
Bernard Trottier **
Phil Trotter
Angela Salewsky
Liz White
Janice Murray


10/01/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
A very difficult prediction...
PCs: This is a very winnable riding for them, but it will require a huge effort. Despite the strategic momentum suiting the Tories, there is a large Lib. voting block here.
Even though the very well known and popular Doug Holyday picked it up in a 2013 by-election, the riding went back red in the general (albeit thanks to a terrible platform and unease about Hudak).
This will be a house-by-house battle and will all come down to the broader campaign swaying less partisan voters.
22/12/2017 seasaw
The PC's have a good shot at taking this riding. They have a good candidate, Christine Hogarth. Peter Milczyn, however, is personally popular. We're going to have to wait and see how the campaign goes before we make an accurate prediction
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
A rather mixed riding with the wealthy condos and waterfront properties in the south which tend to be well educated so favour Liberals but fairly wealthy so favour PCs. The North is more your multicultural middle class suburban so usually favours Liberals but potential for PCs as well as the NDP is strong enough to split the votes but not win. At this point I would give the Liberals a slight edge here, but any shift in favour of the PCs would be enough for them to take it or if the NDP gains ground, they could create the splits for a PC win.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
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