|Not sure why this is still showing as a TCTC, this is a blue riding and it's not even close. Double digit win likely.|
|Ex-Liberals are breaking 4 or 5 : 1 for the PCs over the NDP.|
On a boots on the ground note; I walked through a south of Rymal neighbourhood on Saturday, and the NDP and Liberals were tied on the sign count at zero.
|Looking at the signs around this riding, seems like PC should be able to squeeze in a win. I live in this riding and its very close between PC & NDP but PC will squeeze in a win unless PC tumble further before the election day.|
|Despite the NDP surge and the reasonably weak 2014 PC numbers in the areas that now make up this riding, I still think it's reasonably solid for Skelly. She's a skilled politician/communicator, and even with suburban growth this is still an exurban riding with a strong social and fiscal conservative bent. The NDP will probably move into second, and might break 30%, but I doubt it'll be enough.|
|The Horwath wave will go rural and sweep this riding...|
|The Tories and Liberals are running local councillors. The NDP is running a candidate that came runner up in their Niagara Centre nomination. |
It really comes down to Donna Skelly's ground game and local name recognition vs Horwath's popularity in the Hamilton-Niagara area.
Right now I'll give it a slight PC edge.
|Okay...I was about to go on how I fail to see why this riding isn't listed as PC, but upon closer inspection of the numbers, I can see a potential NDP win. That NDP win is predicated on the NDP surging and maintaining their their support (and furthering the Liberal implosion). However, having said that, given the current polling numbers and the name recognition for the PC candidate, I'm going to say this stays with team blue...for now...|
|Ironically, while the vestigial McMeekin effect may explain the notional 2014 result, his part is the only component of FlamGlan which *didn't* favour Liberal over PC, while the part lent by former PC leader Tim Hudak went Liberal by a smidgen! So, for a seat apparently intended to be a rural-Wentworth Conservative-vote catchbasin, the picture is pretty muddy, if somewhat artificially so--if it doesn't go according to Tory-friendly plan, it'll be in the event of a Horwath wave going rural (and Glanbrook/Saltfleet has never really let go of an 'Ian Deans' NDP latency, which even suburbanizing Binbrook has taken on)|
|My instincts tell me that the only reason why the Liberals edged out the PCs in 2014 (under current boundaries) is because of the personal appeal of McMeekin. He's not in this riding, so I say PC win by over 10 points.|
|While Teddy Boragina is absolutely right, the Liberals did edge out the PC|
|This is a riding where my gut and the math disagree. My gut tells me the Tories will probably win, but the math is that the transposition indicates this a LIBERAL riding not a PC one, with the Liberals winning on the math 35.6% to 35.5%|
|Unlike the old riding of Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale which is a mix of suburban and rural, this one is much more rural this far more favourable to the PCs than the old one. It's why David Sweet federally choose this one over Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas and why Ted McMeekin is running in the neighbouring one.|
|This new riding leans Tory; Niagara West--Glanbrook was solidly Tory, the portion of Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale that ended up here was more conservative-leaning than the portion that went to Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas, and the small piece taken from Hamilton Mountain isn't big enough to make a difference.|
That's the generic evaluation.
While a popular and charismatic leader could make the Liberals competitive (see Federal results), Kathleen Wynne is decidedly not those things.
A Tory romp.
|This new riding seems ripe for the PCs. Although the communities of Waterdown and Binbrook are growing exponentially, this primarily rural riding has a strong social and religious conservative voting record. Donna Skelly, two-time candidate in the former Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale riding, will no longer have to run in the more urban and 'Liberal' pockets of Dundas and West Hamilton. I suspect the third time will be the charm.|