Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Flamborough-Glanbrook


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:32:45
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Partridge, Judi

Skelly, Donna


Incumbent(s):
    Niagara West-Glanbrook
   Sam Oosterhoff

   (45.21% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
   Ted McMeekin

   (45.14% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Hamilton Mountain
   Monique Taylor

   (9.66% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):97081


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

15372 35.58%
15325 35.47%
9791 22.66%
1955 4.53%
OTHERS 758 1.76%
Total Transposed 43202

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale

7823
8586
2808
972
Others224
Total Transposed20413

     Niagara West-Glanbrook

6314
5945
5587
859
Others488
Total Transposed19193

     Hamilton Mountain

1234
794
1396
125
Others46
Total Transposed3596


Federal Election Result (2015):

David Sweet **
2413743.50%
Jennifer Stebbing
2172839.10%
Mike DiLivio
777914.00%
David Allan Urquhart
18663.40%


 

2017-12-24 Teddy Boragina
157.52.13.39
This is a riding where my gut and the math disagree. My gut tells me the Tories will probably win, but the math is that the transposition indicates this a LIBERAL riding not a PC one, with the Liberals winning on the math 35.6% to 35.5%
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Unlike the old riding of Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale which is a mix of suburban and rural, this one is much more rural this far more favourable to the PCs than the old one. It's why David Sweet federally choose this one over Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas and why Ted McMeekin is running in the neighbouring one.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
This new riding leans Tory; Niagara West--Glanbrook was solidly Tory, the portion of Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale that ended up here was more conservative-leaning than the portion that went to Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas, and the small piece taken from Hamilton Mountain isn't big enough to make a difference.
That's the generic evaluation.
While a popular and charismatic leader could make the Liberals competitive (see Federal results), Kathleen Wynne is decidedly not those things.
A Tory romp.
09/12/2017 ML
69.77.168.131
This new riding seems ripe for the PCs. Although the communities of Waterdown and Binbrook are growing exponentially, this primarily rural riding has a strong social and religious conservative voting record. Donna Skelly, two-time candidate in the former Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale riding, will no longer have to run in the more urban and 'Liberal' pockets of Dundas and West Hamilton. I suspect the third time will be the charm.



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