Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-10 21:13:21

Constituency Profile



Schreiner, Mike

   Hon Liz Sandals

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):121688

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

22014 41.52%
11048 20.84%
9385 17.70%
10230 19.29%
OTHERS 348 0.66%
Total Transposed 53025

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed53025

Federal Election Result (2015):

Lloyd Longfield
Gloria Kovach
Andrew Seagram
Gord Miller
Alexander Fekri
Kornelis Klevering
Tristan Dineen


16/12/2017 Christopher L
I'd say Guelph is likely to stay Liberal, although it could be at risk to either the PCs or maybe even the Greens if the OLP runs a really brutal campaign. I grew up in Guelph and have watched it become a significantly more progressive, centre-left sort of place over that time. It's certainly not the bellweather it once was - federally it was one of only 11 Ontario ridings to stay Liberal in 2011 (although part of that was due to the personal popularity of Frank Valeriote). So that makes it a very challenging place for the PCs to win - everything has to go right. Also, it's important to note that Liz Sandals, despite being a 4-term MP, has no real personal popularity - she's a colourless figure and I don't know anyone who particularly likes her. So having to run a new candidate won't be a problem for the OLP. I think they hold the riding.
14/12/2017 Tory in Dixie
This riding will need a pretty hefty Tory swing to actually go blue ... as best and as brief as I can summarize Guelph has bucked provincial and federal trends historically and probably will do so in the future. For a time in the 1980s and 1990s it was a bellwether riding but increasing growth has made the riding trend more Liberal - (very much in evidence federally in 2011, but I believe same dynamics could hold provincially). Perhaps somewhat ironic that for a good portion of the 1950s - 1980s when the Tories dominated Queen's Park the riding was consistently Liberal due to a more southwestern Ontario rural character of the riding at the time - Ontario provincial Liberals in those days being more along the lines of small-l rural liberals - the Nixons, Farquhar Oliver, Eddie Seargant and in Guelph, Harry Worton. Bottom line, Patrick Brown will need a big swing his way to turn Guelph blue, or there is a marked vote split with the left-of-centre parties.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This is an interesting one. It is Mike Schreiner's riding and considering that many people seem to like the idea of at least one Green MP, I would not be the least bit surprised if they pick this up. That being said as a university town and with today's millennials being more progressive than younger people in the past and the Liberals running on a leftish platform I could see the OLP holding this even without Liz Sandals. PCs have a ceiling of around 30% so they need a very strong split on the left to have any shot here. They won this last in 1999 when it was Guelph-Wellington so the loss of the rural parts where they usually run up the margins makes it a lot tougher to win.
11/12/2017 seasaw
@teddy b, it didn't take long at all for a usual ludicrous Green prediction to pop up. Also, what has Green success in BC, NB and PEI have to do with this riding? Last election the Green did pull all their resources, sent a couple hundred paid employees to help with their campaign and they still finished behind the PC's who spent little money and only 6 people working on their campaign. So the Greens can dream all they want, this riding is going to be a fight between Liberals and Conservatives, NDP, Green, they'll be lucky to get enough votes to get their deposits back
10/12/2017 teddy boragina
Call me crazy, but based on the math alone, the Greens would win this riding on current polling levels. Elections in NB, PE, and BC have shown the party that success depends on focusing like madmen on the riding the leader runs in. The party wins on the math alone, add the fact they will be throwing every dollar on this seat, and you have a near lock.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
Too close to call.
The retirement of Liz Sandals, a June election that will put most students back in their home ridings to vote, and generally horrendous poll numbers in Southwestern Ontario all work against the Liberals holding on.
In the Liberals' favour is the almost even split between the Tories and NDP last time around; a repeat performance gives them a chance in a 3-way race.
10/12/2017 seasaw
Here we go, I'm the first to comment. A lot of people call this riding a Liberal stronghold. Sure, they have won the last 4, however let's get a closer look at their wins. After her narrow victory in 2003, Liz Sandals has won 3 elections without difficulty, but her PC opponents, Senechal, Schirk and McDonald, not only lacked profile, they were also short on cash, organization and manpower. In the last election, I've been told that McDonald ran the campaign with 1/2 dozen people. Sandals is retiring and none of the three major parties have a candidate. Greens believe that they can win here but they're a long shot. It should also be noted that this riding has elected candidates from the winning party in each of the last 9 elections.

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