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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Haldimand-Norfolk


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:32:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

BARRETT, TOBY

DU SABLON, DANIELLE

FAULKNER, ANNE

LUCZKIW, WASYL IVAN

MATTEN, DAN

PRESTON, DAN

RITCHIE, CAROLYN

ROSS, THECLA

ROSSER, CHRISTOPHER


Incumbent(s):
    Haldimand-Norfolk
   Toby Barrett

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):108051


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

8331 19.72%
22066 52.22%
9786 23.16%
2071 4.90%
Total Transposed 42254

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Haldimand-Norfolk

8331
22066
9786
2071
Total Transposed42254


Federal Election Result (2015):

Diane Finley **
2471444.10%
Joan Mouland
2048736.60%
John Harris
762513.60%
Wayne Ettinger
18573.30%
Dave Bylsma
8841.60%
Dustin Wakeford
2720.50%
Leslie Bory
1510.30%
0.30%


 

18/05/2018 Bza
142.229.115.110
Definitely an easy PC hold, with the incumbent having been around since the 1995 election and winning 50%+ in past elections.
07/04/2018 A.S.
99.225.48.35
The icing on the populist-stranglehold cake: other than the byelected Raymond Cho, Toby Barrett was IIRC Doug Ford's sole leadership supporter in caucus. (But it's interesting to observe how relative strength within the riding has morphed over the years--in 2007, at the height of the 'Caledonia crisis', Caledonia was Barrett's strongest locale. By 2014, it was his weakest, maybe due to token Horwathian Hamilton-exurban voting impulses.)Sent:
18/12/2017 Dr. Bear
75.119.248.107
The PC incumbent has been here for years and usually scores over 50% (and even over 60%) of the vote. Easy PC hold.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
This is normally a fairly safe PC riding and Toby Barrett may come from the right of the party but is very popular here and was only one of four PC MPPs to get over 50% in 2015 and even got over 60% in 2011 so easy hold.
11/12/2017
99.228.128.85
Toby Barrett has been around for decades, I expect his share of the vote to increase this election.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
Barring any unusual local circumstances, any rural riding held by the Tories now will be held by the Tories after the election.



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