Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Hamilton Centre

Prediction Changed
2017-12-03 21:51:23

Constituency Profile



Duncan, Dionne

Horwath, Andrea

Young, Robert

    Hamilton Centre
   Andrea Horwath

   (90.25% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
   Paul Miller

   (9.75% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):101932

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

6532 21.93%
3773 12.67%
16248 54.56%
2741 9.20%
OTHERS 489 1.64%
Total Transposed 29782

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Hamilton Centre

Total Transposed26463

     Hamilton East-Stoney Creek

Total Transposed3319

Federal Election Result (2015):

David Christopherson **
Anne Tennier
Yonatan Rozenszajn
Ute Schmid-Jones
Michael James Baldasaro
Rob Young
Maria Anastasiou


02/02/2018 seasaw
I agree with Craig that this is the easiest to predict and the safest of all party leader's seats. This will probably be Andrea Horwath's last run as well, unless of course she becomes premier. Though the demographics and the boundaries have changed, we have to remember that the Liberals have won this riding before, Domenic Agostino, Lilly Odie Munroe and Sheila Copps all represented huge chunks of this riding, the Liberals will win this riding again sometime, but not this time
2017-12-26 Craig
Of the three main party leaders, Horwath likely has the safest seat. Although Hamilton is changing, it is still primarily working class and more suited to Horwath than Wynne, and the PC's are not a factor here. She is well liked enough here that she would likely stay on as MPP even if she resigns as NDP leader if they don't at least become Official Opposition in June.
That said, in the future, overflow of Toronto housing and condos into Hamilton may change the demographics and give the Liberals a chance here. That is at least one or two elections away though.
18/12/2017 Dr.Bear
I live in this riding part time and it is certainly changing. I suspect that in electionprediction-go-rounds to come, this riding will become competitive for the Liberals as gentrification continues, sky-rise condos go up, and Torontonians move in. For now, the NDP still have a solid hold and Andrea Howarth is still very popular. Rather dull race now, but I suspect it could be a better talking point in the 2019 federal election.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Andrea Howarth will probably have a tough time even forming official opposition let alone becoming premier, but she is wildly popular here, so will not only win her seat, but probably by the biggest margins of the three leaders. Working class makes her left wing populism quite popular here as opposed to downtown Toronto which is more your left wing elitist champagne socialist while this is your left wing blue collar populist riding.
03/12/2017 Insight
Andrea may not (and will likely not) be the next Premier of Ontario, but she will have no trouble holding on to her Hamilton seat.

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