Hamilton Mountain

	MAVES, KRISTOFER
	MILLER, SCOTT PATRICK
	PAULS, ESTHER
	STARR, DAMIN
	TAYLOR, MONIQUE
	URQUHART, DAVE

Incumbent(s):

	Hamilton Mountain    Monique Taylor    (100.00% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			103615
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		11343	28.06%
		7099	17.56%
		19649	48.61%
		1750	4.33%
	OTHERS	585	1.45%
	Total Transposed	40426
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Hamilton Mountain
		11343
		7099
		19649
		1750
	Others	585
	Total Transposed	40426
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Scott Duvall
		18146	35.90%
		Shaun Burt
		16933	33.50%
		Al Miles
		12991	25.70%
		Raheem Aman
		1283	2.50%
		Andrew James Caton
		763	1.50%
		Jim Enos
		438	0.90%

	16/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
The only Hamilton seat where the incumbent NDP vote remained stable in 2014 relative to 2011...if by default, as Monique Taylor had to dislodge an Liberal incumbent in '11. I agree that things look poised to favour the PCs here, over the Libs if not the NDP--it's *that* kind of blue-collar suburban--however, it's the same story as in HE-SC; hometown leadership advantage as likely (?) incumbency insurance.
	12/04/2018	192.171.48.70
This will be a close one...with the NDPO just barely holding on...THe blue wave will be a tsunami
	26/03/2018	Dr.Bear 204.187.20.95
While I am not suggesting that the PCs will take Hamilton Mountain, my instincts tell me that Douggie's populist rhetoric will have some appeal here. I suspect a closer race than previous, with team blue coming in second.
	22/03/2018	MF 69.158.152.4
This suburban Hamilton seat has emerged as a stronghold for the NDP, and I don't see that changing in this election. The Liberals will probably come in third here. It will be interesting to see how well Ford's PCs do. The only way I see the NDP losing is in the highly unlikely scenario where is a tidal wave of working class support for Ford in the rust belt and the NDP loses official party status.
	13/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
Normally the Liberals would be competitive here, but they've crashed in the heavily manufacturing areas so could win this in the next federal election, but won't provincially. PCs have a ceiling in the low 30s so you would need a near perfect three way split for them to have a chance and don't see that happening as the progressive vote will likely go mostly NDP although the PCs will probably come in second.
	10/12/2017	Innocent bystander 67.215.130.68
What was once a competitive three-way riding has become a pretty solid NDP seat, with their percentage of the vote doubling since 1999, increasing at every election. It would take a major reversal of both NDP and Liberal fortunes to bring the Mountain into play.