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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Hamilton Mountain


Prediction Changed
2017-12-10 21:13:34
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

De Luca, Frank

Pauls, Esther

Taylor, Monique


Incumbent(s):
    Hamilton Mountain
   Monique Taylor

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):103615


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

11343 28.06%
7099 17.56%
19649 48.61%
1750 4.33%
OTHERS 585 1.45%
Total Transposed 40426

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Hamilton Mountain

11343
7099
19649
1750
Others585
Total Transposed40426


Federal Election Result (2015):

Scott Duvall
1814635.90%
Shaun Burt
1693333.50%
Al Miles
1299125.70%
Raheem Aman
12832.50%
Andrew James Caton
7631.50%
Jim Enos
4380.90%


 

13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Normally the Liberals would be competitive here, but they've crashed in the heavily manufacturing areas so could win this in the next federal election, but won't provincially. PCs have a ceiling in the low 30s so you would need a near perfect three way split for them to have a chance and don't see that happening as the progressive vote will likely go mostly NDP although the PCs will probably come in second.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
What was once a competitive three-way riding has become a pretty solid NDP seat, with their percentage of the vote doubling since 1999, increasing at every election.
It would take a major reversal of both NDP and Liberal fortunes to bring the Mountain into play.



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