Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas


Prediction Changed
2017-12-10 21:13:37
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Levitt, Ben

McMeekin, Ted


Incumbent(s):
    Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
   Ted McMeekin

   (66.22% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Hamilton Centre
   Andrea Horwath

   (22.28% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Hamilton Mountain
   Monique Taylor

   (11.50% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):109535


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

20760 43.21%
12383 25.78%
11941 24.86%
2368 4.93%
OTHERS 588 1.22%
Total Transposed 48040

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale

16219
9666
5607
1667
Others387
Total Transposed33546

     Hamilton Centre

2610
1815
4373
529
Others133
Total Transposed9460

     Hamilton Mountain

1931
902
1961
172
Others68
Total Transposed5033


Federal Election Result (2015):

Filomena Tassi
2969447.70%
Vincent Samuel
1982131.80%
Alex Johnstone
1013116.30%
Peter Ormond
26334.20%


 

21/01/2018 seasaw
99.225.226.230
@Dr Bear, You referred to Liberal numbers improving as the campaign goes on. I kinda agree with that as well, the reason we think that way is because it has happened in the three previous elections and there's a very good chance that it's going to happen again. What we're not considering here, is the old disclaimer ' past performance doesn't necessarily guarantee future performance ', if the Tories manage to stay out of trouble in the first two weeks of the campaign, then the focus will be shifted to Liberal baggage, and it'll be very difficult for the Liberals to overcome. That coupled with the fact that we have a premier and government with historic low approval, will make it extra hard for the Liberals. As far as this riding goes, McMeekin is popular and he might win even if the Liberals get spanked elsewhere, but if the Liberals fall too low, he will lose this riding
20/12/2017 Dr. Bear
75.119.248.107
While I think a TCTC prediction is the correct one right now, I'm going to make a bold prediction and say the Liberals will hold this riding for a number of reasons:
First, redistribution has removed the most conservative portions of the riding. This makes holding the riding easier for them. Second, Ted McMeekin is well liked and established, giving his team the edge just from experience. The PC candidate, Ben Levitt, is only 25 years old and does not have the experience or name recognition in the community. Couple that with a nasty nomination battle that has lead to legal issues, and we have an incohesive PC team. The NDP are quite weak in this part of Hamilton and won't be a major factor. Third, while the PC would take this riding under current polling numbers, it is highly unlikely that these numbers will stay. I am expecting Wynne to put up a formative fight once the campaign starts in earnest, and poll numbers will go up for the Liberals. Bottom line: an uncomfortably close win for McMeekin.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
This riding has faced major controversies on the PC side so could very well cost them this one. Ted McMeekin is also personally popular so still has a good chance even if his party loses. The NDP is too weak in Ancaster and to a lesser extent Dundas so at best they will play a spoiler role since if they do well they could create the necessary vote splits for the PCs to win this, while if they do poorly the Liberals should hold this.
11/12/2017 Benji
99.228.49.27
The PC have a strong candidate with a great team and with the liberals struggling in the polls I feel that it's going blue.
10/12/2017
99.228.128.85
I disagree that if the Liberals collapse, this will go NDP. This is a suburban riding. Ancaster is very Tory and with a vote split on the left in Hamilton, the PCs win this.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
Too close to call.
Riding Ted McMeekin's incumbency is the Liberal's only chance here - and it will be close - if he follows up his resignation from Cabinet with a retirement from Queen's Park, this seat probably leans NDP.



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