Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Barrie-Innisfil


Prediction Changed
2017-12-09 09:12:26
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Hoggarth, Ann

North, Bonnie


Incumbent(s):
    Barrie
   Ann Hoggarth

   (67.44% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    York-Simcoe
   Julia Munro

   (32.56% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):101584


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

13733 37.51%
14243 38.91%
6211 16.97%
2131 5.82%
OTHERS 290 0.79%
Total Transposed 36608

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Barrie

9745
9188
3895
1334
Others178
Total Transposed24340

     York-Simcoe

3988
5056
2316
796
Others112
Total Transposed12268


Federal Election Result (2015):

John Brassard
2290146.40%
Colin Wilson
1830837.10%
Myrna Clark
581211.80%
Bonnie North
19914.00%
Gary Nail
1990.40%
Jeff Sakula
1300.30%


 

27/12/2017 A BCer
64.180.22.208
Probably the more Conservative of the two new Barrie ridings. We don't know yet who the PC candidate will be, but I'm going to guess that incumbent Liberal MPP Anne Hoggarth is going to lose to him, particularly with PC leader Patrick Brown running next door. Look to this riding for a stronger result for the Greens, with fairly experienced candidate Bonnie North running for them.
15/12/2017 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
Unpopular Party? Check!
Unpopular Leader? Check!
Candidate saying stupid things? Check!
Hoggarth might have fancied her chances marginally better in Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, but not after Patrick Brown decided to run there.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
In what was a bad election for the Tories federally, they still won this by ten points. The south side of Barrie tends to be more conservative than the north and the rural areas are solidly conservative so even when Barrie was a single riding it was probably going to be an uphill battle for the Liberals to hold it while splitting it means barring the PCs doing something really stupid, they should easily pick this up.
08/12/2017
99.228.128.85
Unpopular Liberals and riding next to Patrick Browns....PC pick up.



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