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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Humber River-Black Creek


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:33:19
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Musarat, Cyma

Poizner, Lionel Wayne

Sgro, Deanna


Incumbent(s):
    York West
   Mario Sergio

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):108198


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

11907 46.71%
2794 10.96%
9997 39.21%
418 1.64%
OTHERS 378 1.48%
Total Transposed 25494

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    York West

11907
2794
9997
418
Others378
Total Transposed25494


Federal Election Result (2015):

Judy Sgro **
2399566.90%
Kerry Vandenberg
722820.20%
Darnel Harris
385110.70%
Keith Jarrett
5841.60%
Christine Nugent
2010.60%


 

11/01/2018 seasaw
99.225.226.230
Deanna Sgro, the daughter of federal MP, Judy Sgro is going to win this riding. Sure the gap between the Liberals and NDP has gotten smaller over the years and it may even get really close this time but believe me the Liberals will prevail
04/01/2018 True believer
74.14.104.225
NDP candidate in this riding, Tom Rakocevic, looks like a real good contender since he is already very well known for his long dedication to the local community.
2017-12-24 Teddy Boragina
157.52.13.39
Don't under-estimate the NDP here. I lived in this riding for nearly a decade, and if the Tories do well across the province, it could allow the NDP to win even if the NDP vote does not move at all.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
75.98.19.133
I think this should be too close to call. The NDP candidate did surprisingly well here in 2014, and is running again. Is he personally popular or was he just in the right place in the right time for an NDP bump last time? This could be competitive with the incumbent gone now as well.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Federally this is a very safe Liberal riding, but provincially the NDP has done reasonably well here is this is the heart of the Ford Nation so more a blue collar populist type than downtown liberal elitist so yes Liberals are favoured but an NDP upset here cannot be ruled out. Tories may be competitive in neighbouring ridings, but not this one.
13/12/2017 Dr.Bear
75.119.248.107
Ever though the long time incumbent is stepping down, I highly doubt that anyone other than the liberals will win here. Both federally and provincially the liberals have held strong through good times and bad.



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