Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Humber River-Black Creek

Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:33:19

Constituency Profile



Musarat, Cyma

Poizner, Lionel Wayne

Sgro, Deanna

    York West
   Mario Sergio

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):108198

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

11907 46.71%
2794 10.96%
9997 39.21%
418 1.64%
OTHERS 378 1.48%
Total Transposed 25494

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    York West

Total Transposed25494

Federal Election Result (2015):

Judy Sgro **
Kerry Vandenberg
Darnel Harris
Keith Jarrett
Christine Nugent


11/01/2018 seasaw
Deanna Sgro, the daughter of federal MP, Judy Sgro is going to win this riding. Sure the gap between the Liberals and NDP has gotten smaller over the years and it may even get really close this time but believe me the Liberals will prevail
04/01/2018 True believer
NDP candidate in this riding, Tom Rakocevic, looks like a real good contender since he is already very well known for his long dedication to the local community.
2017-12-24 Teddy Boragina
Don't under-estimate the NDP here. I lived in this riding for nearly a decade, and if the Tories do well across the province, it could allow the NDP to win even if the NDP vote does not move at all.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
I think this should be too close to call. The NDP candidate did surprisingly well here in 2014, and is running again. Is he personally popular or was he just in the right place in the right time for an NDP bump last time? This could be competitive with the incumbent gone now as well.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Federally this is a very safe Liberal riding, but provincially the NDP has done reasonably well here is this is the heart of the Ford Nation so more a blue collar populist type than downtown liberal elitist so yes Liberals are favoured but an NDP upset here cannot be ruled out. Tories may be competitive in neighbouring ridings, but not this one.
13/12/2017 Dr.Bear
Ever though the long time incumbent is stepping down, I highly doubt that anyone other than the liberals will win here. Both federally and provincially the liberals have held strong through good times and bad.

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