Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-07 21:19:04

Constituency Profile



Fullerton, Merrilee

MacLaren, Jack

West, Andrew

    Carleton-Mississippi Mills
   Jack MacLaren

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):100846

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

14340 33.36%
19598 45.59%
6000 13.96%
3052 7.10%
Total Transposed 42990

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Carleton-Mississippi Mills

Total Transposed42990

Federal Election Result (2015):

Karen McCrimmon
Walter Pamic
John Hansen
Andrew West


2017-12-26 Craig
Probably one of only a handful Liberal pickup opportunities. While Jack MacLaren and the Trillium Party have something to say about that, redistribution also eats away the most conservative parts of the riding - under these boundaries, this seat may have very well gone Liberal in 2011 and 2014.
Without MacLaren, it gives them a better chance to win more support in Kanata, but there is a caveat. While Jack MacLaren probably will not win (most likely will finish 3rd), his results will be critical. He should find strong support for his Trump-like views in West Carleton (but do they risk electing a Liberal in the process?), and it might be enough to deny the PC's a win. Meanwhile Kanata is more ?blue Liberal? where they don't necessarily support deficit budgets or socialism, but don't support social conservatism or cultural populism.
If the PC's can improve on the federal and 2014 numbers in Kanata enough to both leap over the Liberals AND offset any MacLaren votes in West Carleton, they should win the seat. Otherwise, the Liberals should get a rare pickup.
19/12/2017 seasaw
I wouldn't predict this one for the PC's yet. Sure, they have a slight chance, but we're going to have to wait and see how their campaign is doing. McLaren maybe a John Ninziata type politician who can win regardless of who he's running for, if not, he'll probably take enough votes from the PC's to allow the Liberals to win. However, if the PC lead is 15+ points, then they will take this riding.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
The Trillium Party is irrelevant and most Ontarians have never heard of it so Jack McLaren will probably only get around 5% or so. Yes this went Liberal federally, but asides from the 2015 federal election has generally been a reliably safe PC riding although the changing demographics are making this more competitive meaning in 2022 I could see the Liberals having a chance here. Also federally Harper really angered the civil service and provincially that is much less likely to be an issue.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
The Trillium Party which most have never heard of will be lucky just to get 5% so if the PCs do lose this it will be due to a very bad showing provincially. Until recently this has been a very safe PC riding and while changing demographics make it somewhat more competitive, Liberals are not doing well in the polls and the PCs to date have largely stayed away from controversial ideas which have sunk them in the past thus why they should hold this. But certainly could go Liberal in future elections beyond 2018.
10/12/2017 teddy boragina
Neat logo. Too bad the trillium party does not have a hope of winning here. We've seen provincial politicians who are mavericks join already existing parties before; MB, and AB come to mind, BC being most recent with the DRBC party in 2005. In short, Trillium has no chance of winning, and the only question is if the party can draw enough PC support to allow the Liberals to win.
So far, there's no sign of even that.
06/12/2017 Kathy
Note the incumbent is actually Jack MacLaren of the Trillium Party. While he might steal votes from the PCs, I do not think it will be enough to win. Worse thing that can happy is a Liberal wins as a result but I suspect the PCs will hang on.

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