Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Kenora-Rainy River

Prediction Changed
2017-12-16 20:16:59

Constituency Profile



Rickford, Greg

    Kenora-Rainy River
   Sarah Campbell

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):53027

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

2657 14.89%
5266 29.51%
9410 52.73%
513 2.87%
Total Transposed 17845

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Kenora-Rainy River

Total Transposed17845

Federal Election Result (2015):

Bob Nault
Howard Hampton
Greg Rickford **
Ember C. McKillop
Kelvin Boucher-Chicago


27/12/2017 seasaw
Sarah Campbell is not running and Greg Rickford is representing the PC's. It's a toss up for now, any one of the three parties can take this riding, the Liberals chances though are not as good as as the other two parties, they will only take this riding in case of a strong majority, otherwise it's going to be a race between the NDP and the PC's
17/12/2017 J.B.
The incumbent NDP candidate is not seeking re-election for family reasons, so this riding will flip, and I'm calling it for the PCs, unless Howard Hampton chooses to come out of retirement.
Greg Rickford, a former Conservative MP, won the federal Kenora riding in 2008 and 2011, before losing to another former MP in the federal 2015 Liberal sweep of NW Ontario.
Name recognition is crucial here, along with the strong anti-Wynne sentiment. Residents in this riding have a stronger relationship to Winnipeg instead of Toronto. If they feel that there's a PC momentum, they might just go with that.
Rickford's already got the ground game, and he should do well in Kenora and Dryden, while the NDP-Liberal support will split in the southern Fort Frances area. Also, the previous northern First Nations NDP support has since been re-assigned to the Kiiwetinong riding.
PC gain.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Most likely will go NDP, but with the NDP candidate not running again and former Conservative MP Greg Rickford running a PC win while not likely is possible. Had the old boundaries been used, it would be an NDP hold, but the northern parts which have a large aboriginal population have been lopped off and in the southern portion the PCs are much more competitive while usually get slaughtered in the northern half.

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