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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte


Prediction Changed
2018-05-25 10:18:49
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

AYLWIN, KEENAN

DOWNEY, DOUG

FAERBER, RAM

JANSSEN, DAN

KERK, JEFF

MITCHELL, MARK

ROSKAM, DARREN

TUCK, MICHAEL


Incumbent(s):
    Barrie
   Ann Hoggarth

   (68.66% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Simcoe-Grey
   Jim Wilson

   (18.62% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Simcoe North
   Patrick Brown

   (12.72% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):97876


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

15093 39.26%
14803 38.51%
5755 14.97%
2601 6.77%
OTHERS 188 0.49%
Total Transposed 38440

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Barrie

10171
8479
4080
1684
Others188
Total Transposed24602

     Simcoe-Grey

2903
3700
1054
465
Total Transposed8122

     Simcoe North

2019
2623
622
451
Total Transposed5716


Federal Election Result (2015):

Alex Nuttall
2109141.70%
Brian Tamblyn
2100541.60%
Ellen White
520210.30%
Marty Lancaster
26485.20%
Darren Roskam
4010.80%
Ram Faerber
1880.40%


 

26/05/2018 Harris
70.24.77.76
I get a sense that Doug Downey will win this riding. He won't win it in a landslide or anything like that but he'll probably squeak out a win.
5/24/2018 MT
209.171.88.80
Patrick Brown supports are upset with the appointment of Doug Downey. Mr. Downey has avoided many of the local debates. Keenan from the Green Party has an excellent sign game, and is likeable. Dan from the NDP is competent, but does not appear to have a strong campaign. Jeff from the Liberals seems to be knocking on doors and is all over the Riding. His twitter exposure is unreal. I call this a close Liberal hold, but very close.
5/16/2018 DM
184.147.53.203
The PC having Doug Ford as a leader has destroyed any chance of the PC winning this riding. People are so pissed off at the 15 year old Liberal Government they will not vote Liberal people will stay home or vote NDP. So the NDP have a chance of picking up this riding.
09/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
50.92.139.181
I made my quintessential Brown-bashing comment in the other riding by mistake. Not going to repeat myself. Easy PC hold.
28/04/2018 A.S.
99.225.48.35
Patrick Brown may be water over the bridge now, but there's still reported tension over the 'anti-democratic' appointment of Doug Downey as Tory standard-bearer, with the party's former riding CFO opting to run for Trillium, etc--though given overall polling, it's likelier to reduce the PCs to a plurality than to rob the PCs of a victory hereabouts.
24/03/2018 Teddy Boragina
45.72.194.213
Call me crazy but I'm gonna say this will go Liberal, even if the Tories gain provincewide. There are likely a lot of PC supporters who are big fans of Brown who will simply stay home on election day.
01/02/2018 Stevo
165.225.76.126
Well clearly things have changed a bit since my earlier prediction :-) Contrary to a statement below, there is actually no evidence (yet) that the party has fallen in the polls. A Forum poll taken after Brown's resignation still shows PC 42%, Lib 27%. I expect the race to tighten but not enough for the Liberals to successfully defend this.
31/01/2018 seasaw
99.225.244.232
I mentioned in my previous post that this riding should not be called for anyone yet, and that was when it was the leader's riding, now, it's no longer the leader's riding. There's been two polls released since the whole Brown scandal, and both of them indicate no drastic change in voter support. We have to wait and see how the campaign unfolds and closer to voting day before we can predict this riding
31/01/2018 Steve
216.105.85.45
With Patrick Brown most likely not running, if I was Ann Hoggarth I would move to this riding from Barrie/Innisfil if she wants to stay as an MPP. Barrie, and most of Springwater would vote Liberal, and did at the Federal Level. This riding is now a toss-up, and do the smart thing Ann, and run in this riding.
29/01/2018 J.T. Edmunds
24.114.62.144
Was going to be a lock for the Conservatives but with Brown's scandals and the party falling apart and falling in the polls, this could slide to the Liberals. Will be very close though.
28/01/2018 Craig
24.213.108.184
If Ann Hoggarts was smart, she would step down as candidate in Barrie-Innisfil and run here. This is the more Liberal-friendly seat of the two Barrie seats, and most likely Patrick Brown will be stepping down in disgrace. If he ran as an independent, the Liberals would be strongly favoured, otherwise it is too close to call.
Yes, Alex Nuttall is a strong social conservative who won in a recount, but with these boundaries in a provincial election taking that route is difficult. Can you really get high turnout out of Springwater and Oro-Medonte like in a federal election, while knowing you will lose handily in Barrie proper? At the same time, running a more moderate candidate will help a lot in Barrie, but leave you exposed to lower turnout in the rural areas.
No matter what, a tossup right now if Patrick Brown does not run as an independent; Liberal hold if he does.
27/01/2018 HLS
99.243.4.18
'This is Patrick Brown's riding and barring a massive screw-up, he should easily take this.'
Funny you should mention that.
I suppose this depends on whether Patrick Brown decides to stay in. Vic Fedeli has indicated he wouldn't sign Brown's nomination papers, but who knows if Fedeli is the leader after March 28th.
I understand the seat has been PC for quite some time. There could be a circumstance in which Brown were to run as an independent if he didn't get PC backing, and splits the vote with a PC candidate assuming the Liberals are strong enough. Their high water mark in the area was 2003 when they did just about 37 per cent of the vote.
27/01/2018 MPP345
99.229.217.197
I'm wondering how the results in this riding, especially, will be influenced by the allegations of sexual assault against Brown. If he continues to run, will he have a major hit to his base? If someone else runs in his stead, will they be disadvantaged by association?
25/01/2018 Teddy Boragina
104.247.243.67
This riding was always the more liberal friendly of the two, with Brown deep in scandal, this riding will probably go Liberal.
25/01/2018 M. Lunn
67.226.161.209
With the explosive sexual allegations, I think it is highly likely Brown will not be the candidate. Depending on how this plays out too early to say the impact but if the PCs lose her they will have a bad night provincially. Until a new leader is in place and we see how the public reacts, I am keeping this as too close to call.
09/01/2018 Stevo
165.225.76.111
seasaw : 'Sure, it's the leader's riding but that means nothing'
LOL. It 'means nothing' that this is the leader's riding? Uh, seasaw, are you new to prognosticating Canadian politics? or politics...anywhere?
Now, back in the real world, let's just say if Patrick Brown bothers spending any time in his home riding during the campaign, it will be for a victory lap. This would be a PC slamdunk even without the leader's name on the ballot. The Liberals' success in Barrie in 2014 was due to commuters sick of the traffic and receptive to Wynne's transit message. It was a momentary lapse and will not be repeated, and in any case Brown is just as enthusiastic about regional transit if not more so. Likely a 60%+ finish for Brown if he ends up Premier of a majority government.
27/12/2017 A BCer
64.180.22.208
Although this is the less conservative of the two Barrie ridings, PC leader Patrick Brown will easily pick it up.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
This is Patrick Brown's riding and barring a massive screw-up, he should easily take this. The real question is does he become the next premier or fall short. At the moment he is favoured to become the next premier, but still a possibility of falling short.
10/12/2017 seasaw
99.225.226.230
I wouldn't give this one to the PC's yet. Sure, it's the leader's riding but that means nothing. Right now there are polls that put the PC's with double digit lead there's also a poll out that puts them behind the Liberals. Several consistent things in all polls: 1. PC support is down by several points from 6 months ago, the Liberal support is up considerably 2. Kathleen Wynne remains unpopular but Patrick Brown isn't doing much better 3. Though Wynne is unpopular, her ideas aren't. So far Brown has failed miserably to impress voters and present himself as a premier. Unless this trend changes, I wouldn't bet on the PC's
06/12/2017 Kathy
99.228.107.135
Patrick Brown is running here. I cannot see the PC's losing this seat unless this election is a disaster for them, which at this point it isn't looking that way.



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