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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte


Prediction Changed
2017-12-07 21:03:14
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Aylwin, Keenan


Incumbent(s):
    Barrie
   Ann Hoggarth

   (68.66% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Simcoe-Grey
   Jim Wilson

   (18.62% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Simcoe North
   Patrick Brown

   (12.72% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):97876


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

15093 39.26%
14803 38.51%
5755 14.97%
2601 6.77%
OTHERS 188 0.49%
Total Transposed 38440

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Barrie

10171
8479
4080
1684
Others188
Total Transposed24602

     Simcoe-Grey

2903
3700
1054
465
Total Transposed8122

     Simcoe North

2019
2623
622
451
Total Transposed5716


Federal Election Result (2015):

Alex Nuttall
2109141.70%
Brian Tamblyn
2100541.60%
Ellen White
520210.30%
Marty Lancaster
26485.20%
Darren Roskam
4010.80%
Ram Faerber
1880.40%


 

09/01/2018 Stevo
165.225.76.111
seasaw : 'Sure, it's the leader's riding but that means nothing'
LOL. It 'means nothing' that this is the leader's riding? Uh, seasaw, are you new to prognosticating Canadian politics? or politics...anywhere?
Now, back in the real world, let's just say if Patrick Brown bothers spending any time in his home riding during the campaign, it will be for a victory lap. This would be a PC slamdunk even without the leader's name on the ballot. The Liberals' success in Barrie in 2014 was due to commuters sick of the traffic and receptive to Wynne's transit message. It was a momentary lapse and will not be repeated, and in any case Brown is just as enthusiastic about regional transit if not more so. Likely a 60%+ finish for Brown if he ends up Premier of a majority government.
27/12/2017 A BCer
64.180.22.208
Although this is the less conservative of the two Barrie ridings, PC leader Patrick Brown will easily pick it up.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
This is Patrick Brown's riding and barring a massive screw-up, he should easily take this. The real question is does he become the next premier or fall short. At the moment he is favoured to become the next premier, but still a possibility of falling short.
10/12/2017 seasaw
99.225.226.230
I wouldn't give this one to the PC's yet. Sure, it's the leader's riding but that means nothing. Right now there are polls that put the PC's with double digit lead there's also a poll out that puts them behind the Liberals. Several consistent things in all polls: 1. PC support is down by several points from 6 months ago, the Liberal support is up considerably 2. Kathleen Wynne remains unpopular but Patrick Brown isn't doing much better 3. Though Wynne is unpopular, her ideas aren't. So far Brown has failed miserably to impress voters and present himself as a premier. Unless this trend changes, I wouldn't bet on the PC's
06/12/2017 Kathy
99.228.107.135
Patrick Brown is running here. I cannot see the PC's losing this seat unless this election is a disaster for them, which at this point it isn't looking that way.



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