|| London North Centre
Hon Deborah Matthews
(92.47% of voters in new riding)
|| London West
(7.53% of voters in new riding)
|To those people who believe the Brown saga is the end of the PC's, well poll results don't reflect that and since they're choosing their leader on the 10th of March, parties usually experience a post convention boost in support and they last approximately 3 months, so it may help them in the long run. Back to this riding, both the PC's and Liberals nominated star candidates, the NDP was hoping to have Tanya Park nominated, but she was defeated by Terence Kernaghan, an unknown, who I believe doesn't even live in the riding. This may be the only Liberal seat west of the GTA, and even though the NDP might do well, they won't be able to edge out the Liberals at least not in this riding|
|While this is right now the last Liberal seat west of Kitchener, that could very well change. The Liberals, and especially Kathleen Wynne herself, are extremely unpopular in southwestern Ontario. The main reason they held on here in 2014 - Deb Matthews - is retiring, which takes their advantage away. The only saving grace for them is that this is a somewhat more urban and well educated riding, which might insulate them somewhat from the regional factors.|
Overall, this should be one of the closest three-way races in Ontario. That said, I'd have to give a slight advantage to the NDP. They came close here last time despite the incumbency challenge, and hold two other London seats quite easily. Any PC gains would help them out too, although I can't see them winning except possibly on a perfect vote split with 32-35% of the vote.
|Trickle in a couple more NDP votes thanks to the district changes, add a massive depression in Liberal voting, and I think this likely will shift just enough to the NDP's favour. They've gotta be planning to hit this region hard and if they can take advantage of all the news in even a half-competent way, this is a solid shot for the NDP.|
|Before the Patrick Brown meltdown, the PC would have a shot in winning this. With the PC in implosion mode, all anti-government votes will likely consolidate behind the NDP, who are already strong in London. Now this is an easy pickup.|
|Considering that the NDP already hold the other two London ridings, and increased their vote substantially in the last election, I believe this should go their way. The Liberals prospects in this riding are not helped either by Deb Matthews retirement, which I believe shifts this riding in the NDP's favour.|
|The Liberals have nominated Kate Graham in this riding. This will be very close, could be a tight three way race, but I'll give the edge to the Liberals for now, because by the looks, they're not going to win too many SW Ontario seats, and they'll put a lot of effort to keep ridings like this one and Brantford. I will revisit this riding at a later date|
|My NDP prediction might be a bit unconventional and controversial, but hear me out....|
In the last election, the results were Liberals 36%, NDP 30% and PC 26%. Right off the bat, the NDP are ahead of the PC in this riding. But, how much of the Liberal's 36% was because of Deb Matthews? If it's about 5%, and that 5% evenly distributes between the NDP and PC, then then NDP win. Now, Andrea Horwath and co, are still very popular in urban SW Ontario. More so than the Liberals. So I think the NDP will hold the support from 2014 and build on it. Now let's consider the Liberal voters; I think more would be willing to jump to the NDP to prevent the PCs from acquiring this seat.
Now I am not discounting Susan Truppe and her team. She does have the name recognition, experience and support to win this seat. Never the less, for the reasons outlined above, I suspect the NDP will come first, the PCs come second and the Liberals a dismal third.
|If Deb Matthews was running here again I would call this a lock for the OLP. But she is not running and with The Liberals poor polling numbers in SW Ontario I will call this blue. Especially with ex CPC MP Susan Truppe running for the PC's.|
|Too close to call, but not Liberal.|
With the loss of the incumbency advantage, and the Liberals' poll numbers, the winner will depend on how former Liberal voters break, or if they just stay home.
If the Liberals need two hands to count their MPPs south and west of Peel, they'll have had a good election.
|With Deb Matthews retiring and the OLP being quite unpopular in Southwestern Ontario, this could definitely flip. The NDP holds the other two London ridings so could pick this up as well as this holds the university so is more progressive than other Southwestern Ontario ridings. Susan Truppe is running here, but she never stood out as a federal MP and this riding leans in the progressive direction so Truppe could pick this up, but only if there are strong splits. In 2011 which was a high water mark for the Federal Tories, she only got 37% of the popular vote and the PCs at best will match what their federal cousins got in 2011.|
|With Deb Matthews not running again, this riding could easily flip PC since they are running the former MP Susan Truppe. Depends on the election.|