KERNAGHAN, TERENCE DEVIN
|| London North Centre
Hon Deborah Matthews
(92.47% of voters in new riding)
|| London West
(7.53% of voters in new riding)
|The Liberal vote is collapsing and imploding...THis riding is not going to Ford|
|Like Peggy Sattler's London West, London North Centre isn't very 'Fordian' to begin with. And the NDP is headed toward driving out the Liberals in the major cities of SW Ontario b (Abacus has the NDP at 54% in K-W, London and Windsor). This is very low hanging fruit for the NDP.|
|I am puzzled by the NDP call, in particular since I see this riding as one of the most certain two-way races in this election, with NDP being in third - I wonder whether too much weight is given to regional polls or to propaganda in this call. NDP might have had a small chance with Tanya Park, a local councillor and a leftist populist star of a sort, but has next to zero chance with the unknown person who defeated her for nomination. Liberals also run an unknown candidate who has to rely on progressivist-friendly media (all one can get in the province, no FOX News) and on outgoing MP Debbie Matthews' door-knocking - and Matthews herself might have had a difficult campaign this year. Yet the Liberal machine is strongest in this rather well-to-do riding with many University-linked public service elites who tend to be rather stable Liberal supporters and, with the exception of ideological section, not as much in favor of progressivist vote-pulling as one might think. NDP may again do well in downtown areas, a small section of the riding, but elsewhere a two-party system is in place. OLP has also started the ground campaign early and seems to pull all regional resources to defend it - Kate Graham's face has decorated lampposts for at least a month. The main issue is how strong anti-Liberal feeling is - more than in less prosperous ridings, a direct switch from Liberals to PCs will be in place, and PC candidate Susan Truppe is the only well-known candidate. At the same time, fewer leftists in such ridings feel necessity to remove the Liberals, and this creates a close race, with Tories likely to pick up some votes, and Liberals likely to perform above provincial average. NDP may hurt OLP a little bit, but the key fight is between PC and OLP. I want to think Truppe has an advantage as long as Ford keeps singing the tune of defeating Liberal mismanagement, and of NDP being the same, but it can be very close and for now should be Too Close to Call - between OLP and PC which may also be pulling here its regional resources.|
|This is not a confident pick - but in what is usually a very centrist riding, the NDP may have finally found the perfect situation for a win.|
In the last federal election, Truppe finished a distant second with 31% - and she was the incumbent. Granted, the NDP was a distant third at almost 15% - but that occurred during the late campaign NDP collapse of the 2015 federal election.
Looking at the last provincial election, the PC's ran third at about 26.5%, while the NDP was a stronger second at almost 30%. The Liberals took this riding with only about 36% of the vote. In other words - this riding was close to a toss up in 2014.
Right now, the Liberals are doing everything they can to hold LNC - they have the strongest candidate in the area with Kate Graham, and are trying to keep a seat that has been a provincial Liberal stronghold since 2003. However, if Matthews as Deputy Premier in 2014 could only muster 36% when the Liberals weren't nearly as unpopular as they are now - a new candidate is going to have a much tougher time.
Do the PC's pick up the disgruntled Liberal vote? Maybe not. This isn't a Doug Ford riding. During the PC leadership campaign, Ford maxed out at just shy of 40% on the final ballot. This was a Christine Elliot riding through all three ballots. The demographics here just don't seem to lean Ford.
What all of this could mean is unenthusiastic PC voters, coupled with disgruntled Liberals allow for an NDP win in what was a tight riding last time.
This riding is still likely too close to call - but the NDP may finally have a better shot here than the PC's.
|Likely an NDP pick-up with Deb Matthews not running again.|
|With both Liberals and PCs slipping and NDP with momentum, this puts New Democrats in a good spot currently. LISPOP puts it at too close to call, but Eric Grenier shows that NDP currently has the edge. As the election passes the halfway point, progressives consolidating around New Democrats as the anti-Ford option will put KERNAGHAN over the top.|
||Call me Cal |
|Spent time here last couple of days and the complete Liberal collapse and NDP polling numbers combined with the efforts of the other 2 safe London tidings makes this an easy NDP gain.|
|Voters dumped Truppe in '15; but she still got 31% of the vote--I regret to say this, but with PCs solidly leading overall, who says that can't still be the base for a LNC plurality. (Besides, voters in London-Fanshawe have been electing a 'dumped' NDP MPP as their federal MP for a dozen years now.) And while I agree that a hat trick for the London ONDP is not out of the question, LNC does contain an awful lot of the city's most affluent areas, which imposes a certain ceiling for NDP support--though it may be argued that London West is at least as handicapped in that end, and that hasn't held back Peggy Sattler. And even if the OLP at large is down in the dumps, surely there must be some kind of vestigial incumbent/campus-riding support, such as what made LNC in 2008 (if not 2011) one of the last SW Ontario rumps of pre-Justin federal Gritdom. Maybe an even lower winning share for the victor than Deb Matthews enjoyed in 2014?|
|I think the NDP will do very well in south west & northern Ontario because of the issues with the auto sector, steelworkers, and also because the unions will protect the mining workers rights , and settle out the issues with some of the natives.|
|NDP sweep of London...with the help of liberals...the liberal vote in SW Ontario has collapsed|
|Voters in this riding already dumped Susan Truppe from office once before. Why would they elect her again? I think this will be a close race between NDP and Liberals. If Deb Matthews were running for re-election, I think she would hod the seat, but without her, and with the NDP gaining ground, the NDP should edge out a win here! Meaning that London will be mostly orange, which I think reflects the struggles this city has been experiencing for the past several decades under PC and Liberal rule!|
|I just don't get it. The steamroller is coming and still people can't see it. There won't be a Liberal in southwestern Ontario. They stand to lose a third of their vote (or more) and yet pundits refuse to give the Tories a look in seats like this, where their candidate was an MP and knows what she's doing. Much as Truppe won in the 'stable national majority', she'll win this time in the Ford cascade.|
|Still too close to call, but still not Liberal.|
Region-wide, disaffected Liberal supporters have mostly switched to the Tories, but the NDP can't be counted out here.
And there are a lot of disaffected Liberal supporters; they recently polled under 15%, 36 points behind the Tories and 10 behind the NDP.
|This is London's most urbane riding what with the university and affluent neighbourhoods like Old North. Exactly the type of place where Ford will do poorly (he did very poorly against Elliott in the leadership race). Plenty of Red Tories here will hold their nose and vote Liberal, and the NDP's candidate is not as strong as the other two.|
|The Conservatives had a chance to take this one, but with Ford as leader this one stays Liberal. The Liberals will pull resources from other ridings in the area to hang on here.|
|To those people who believe the Brown saga is the end of the PC's, well poll results don't reflect that and since they're choosing their leader on the 10th of March, parties usually experience a post convention boost in support and they last approximately 3 months, so it may help them in the long run. Back to this riding, both the PC's and Liberals nominated star candidates, the NDP was hoping to have Tanya Park nominated, but she was defeated by Terence Kernaghan, an unknown, who I believe doesn't even live in the riding. This may be the only Liberal seat west of the GTA, and even though the NDP might do well, they won't be able to edge out the Liberals at least not in this riding|
|While this is right now the last Liberal seat west of Kitchener, that could very well change. The Liberals, and especially Kathleen Wynne herself, are extremely unpopular in southwestern Ontario. The main reason they held on here in 2014 - Deb Matthews - is retiring, which takes their advantage away. The only saving grace for them is that this is a somewhat more urban and well educated riding, which might insulate them somewhat from the regional factors.|
Overall, this should be one of the closest three-way races in Ontario. That said, I'd have to give a slight advantage to the NDP. They came close here last time despite the incumbency challenge, and hold two other London seats quite easily. Any PC gains would help them out too, although I can't see them winning except possibly on a perfect vote split with 32-35% of the vote.
|Trickle in a couple more NDP votes thanks to the district changes, add a massive depression in Liberal voting, and I think this likely will shift just enough to the NDP's favour. They've gotta be planning to hit this region hard and if they can take advantage of all the news in even a half-competent way, this is a solid shot for the NDP.|
|Before the Patrick Brown meltdown, the PC would have a shot in winning this. With the PC in implosion mode, all anti-government votes will likely consolidate behind the NDP, who are already strong in London. Now this is an easy pickup.|
|Considering that the NDP already hold the other two London ridings, and increased their vote substantially in the last election, I believe this should go their way. The Liberals prospects in this riding are not helped either by Deb Matthews retirement, which I believe shifts this riding in the NDP's favour.|
|The Liberals have nominated Kate Graham in this riding. This will be very close, could be a tight three way race, but I'll give the edge to the Liberals for now, because by the looks, they're not going to win too many SW Ontario seats, and they'll put a lot of effort to keep ridings like this one and Brantford. I will revisit this riding at a later date|
|My NDP prediction might be a bit unconventional and controversial, but hear me out....|
In the last election, the results were Liberals 36%, NDP 30% and PC 26%. Right off the bat, the NDP are ahead of the PC in this riding. But, how much of the Liberal's 36% was because of Deb Matthews? If it's about 5%, and that 5% evenly distributes between the NDP and PC, then then NDP win. Now, Andrea Horwath and co, are still very popular in urban SW Ontario. More so than the Liberals. So I think the NDP will hold the support from 2014 and build on it. Now let's consider the Liberal voters; I think more would be willing to jump to the NDP to prevent the PCs from acquiring this seat.
Now I am not discounting Susan Truppe and her team. She does have the name recognition, experience and support to win this seat. Never the less, for the reasons outlined above, I suspect the NDP will come first, the PCs come second and the Liberals a dismal third.
|If Deb Matthews was running here again I would call this a lock for the OLP. But she is not running and with The Liberals poor polling numbers in SW Ontario I will call this blue. Especially with ex CPC MP Susan Truppe running for the PC's.|
|Too close to call, but not Liberal.|
With the loss of the incumbency advantage, and the Liberals' poll numbers, the winner will depend on how former Liberal voters break, or if they just stay home.
If the Liberals need two hands to count their MPPs south and west of Peel, they'll have had a good election.
|With Deb Matthews retiring and the OLP being quite unpopular in Southwestern Ontario, this could definitely flip. The NDP holds the other two London ridings so could pick this up as well as this holds the university so is more progressive than other Southwestern Ontario ridings. Susan Truppe is running here, but she never stood out as a federal MP and this riding leans in the progressive direction so Truppe could pick this up, but only if there are strong splits. In 2011 which was a high water mark for the Federal Tories, she only got 37% of the popular vote and the PCs at best will match what their federal cousins got in 2011.|
|With Deb Matthews not running again, this riding could easily flip PC since they are running the former MP Susan Truppe. Depends on the election.|