Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-04-28 10:38:00

Constituency Profile









    Oak Ridges-Markham
   Hon Helena Jaczek

   (90.70% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Hon Michael Chan

   (9.30% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):109780

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

20701 48.47%
14559 34.09%
5176 12.12%
1561 3.66%
OTHERS 712 1.67%
Total Transposed 42708

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Oak Ridges-Markham

Total Transposed38724


Total Transposed3984

Federal Election Result (2015):

Jane Philpott
Paul Calandra **
Gregory Hines
Myles O'Brien


15/04/2018 A.S.
It certainly was among the more counterintuitive-yet-revelatory 2015 federal outcomes that Stouffville went Liberal ahead of Unionville--then again, growth has lately been moderating Stouffville, maturity has long been moderating Old Markham, and Cornell is less self-consciously 'Asian-aspirational' than Angus Glen. So it's no wonder that the known PC candidate is facing a known Liberal candidate, i.e. the incumbent, who has a variety of 'successor seats' to choose from but decided to piggyback off Jane Philpott--and hey, why not...
05/04/2018 C. H.
A suburban 905 riding with a known PC candidate and reasonable showings for the PCs federally and provincially in recent years, this should be an easy PC pickup even if the Liberals can pull off a victory province-wide.
27/03/2018 Demarcoa
Likely PC win. Liberals are doling out promises, like they did in 2014. I can't imagine that will work though, and the way the polls are, a lot of ridings are gonna go blue.
25/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The only name recognition that really matters in 2018 is Kathleen Wynne's, and she's toxic. The Tories are polling double the Liberals in Durham-York-Simcoe, and candidates who don't run from their leader fast enough will be caught in the tsunami.
24/03/2018 PY
I have to disagree with our eminent doctor here, as Paul Calandra's name recognition and experience can just as easily work against him...it'd be far too easy for the other local campaigns to attack his dismal performance and record as an MP. I do wonder whether he'll be brazen enough to re-use his 're-elect Paul Calandra' signs (complete with PC logo covered over the Conservative one).
Now, if voters aren't satisfied with only having Stouffville mayor Justin Altmann as some sort of a counterbalance to their current MP, then they could consider Jane Philpott's predecessor as their next MPP.
Otherwise, this race will definitely be in the hands of the undecideds. My money's on the MD, though.
21/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Calandra understood the phenomenon of Dougie and switched his support from Mulroney to Ford late in the leadership. He certainly did this in reflection of the way that locals were turning to Doug. A sure Tory win here.
Editor's Note: Calandra actually switched his support from Mulroney to Elliott during the recent leadership race.
18/12/2017 Dr. Bear
While a TCTC prediction would be reasonable, I think that the PCs are very likely going to gain this riding. Team blue is running former CPC MP Paul Calandra, bringing name recognition and experience to this race. He kept it within 7 points against Jane Philpott. If the race was that close in an election which was a big win for the federal Liberals, I don't see how this isn't going to the PCs under current circumstances. I will reassess this in the months to come.
17/12/2017 M. Lunn
The Stouffville parts should likely go PC as despite being part of the GTA, they have more a small town rural feel to them so like the rest of rural Ontario should go heavily PC. The question then becomes how does the Markham portion go which is more your multicultural suburb so could go either way. At this point this will likely go PC, but if the PCs shoot themselves in the foot the Liberals might be able to hold this so unless the Liberals pull ahead in several polls I will probably call this for the PCs at some point in the new year, but still time for things to change.

Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster