Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Markham-Stouffville


Prediction Changed
2017-12-19 23:19:56
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Calandra, Paul

Etcheverry, Jose

Jaczek, Helena


Incumbent(s):
    Oak Ridges-Markham
   Hon Helena Jaczek

   (90.70% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Markham-Unionville
   Hon Michael Chan

   (9.30% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):109780


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

20701 48.47%
14559 34.09%
5176 12.12%
1561 3.66%
OTHERS 712 1.67%
Total Transposed 42708

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Oak Ridges-Markham

18691
13300
4742
1314
Others676
Total Transposed38724

     Markham-Unionville

2009
1258
433
247
Others36
Total Transposed3984


Federal Election Result (2015):

Jane Philpott
2941649.20%
Paul Calandra **
2556542.80%
Gregory Hines
36476.10%
Myles O'Brien
11451.90%


 

18/12/2017 Dr. Bear
75.119.248.107
While a TCTC prediction would be reasonable, I think that the PCs are very likely going to gain this riding. Team blue is running former CPC MP Paul Calandra, bringing name recognition and experience to this race. He kept it within 7 points against Jane Philpott. If the race was that close in an election which was a big win for the federal Liberals, I don't see how this isn't going to the PCs under current circumstances. I will reassess this in the months to come.
17/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
The Stouffville parts should likely go PC as despite being part of the GTA, they have more a small town rural feel to them so like the rest of rural Ontario should go heavily PC. The question then becomes how does the Markham portion go which is more your multicultural suburb so could go either way. At this point this will likely go PC, but if the PCs shoot themselves in the foot the Liberals might be able to hold this so unless the Liberals pull ahead in several polls I will probably call this for the PCs at some point in the new year, but still time for things to change.



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