Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Mississauga Centre

Prediction Changed
2018-06-04 13:02:00

Constituency Profile










    Mississauga East-Cooksville
   Hon Dipika Damerla

   (36.85% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Harinder S. Takhar

   (31.31% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Mississauga-Brampton South
   Amrit Mangat

   (23.60% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Bob Delaney

   (0 of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):118756

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

17903 51.49%
9059 26.05%
5543 15.94%
1027 2.95%
OTHERS 1238 3.56%
Total Transposed 34769

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Mississauga East-Cooksville

Total Transposed12198


Total Transposed11881

     Mississauga-Brampton South

Total Transposed7788


Total Transposed2,903

Federal Election Result (2015):

Omar Alghabra
Julius Tiangson
Farheen Khan
Linh Nguyen


06/06/2018 PM
TCTC really. If there is one riding in Mississauga that the Liberals have a shot at keeping,besides Mississauga East-Cooksville, this is it. However, it would not surprise me if the PC's pick this up despite problems with previous candidates plus a surge in support for the NDP which will clearly come from former Liberal supporters.
05/06/2018 MF
Looks like another PC victory by default - as neither the Liberal or NDP is strong enough to beat the PCs here.
29/05/2018 Belaruskii-Canadskii
Registered Conservative, but this might be a Liberal hold. The whole Granic-Allen fiasco was a disaster for the Cons. Although there is no doubt that her supporters will still vote Con (a fringe portion might go Libertarian), it will paint the party in the area as unstable in the eyes of moderates. New candidate Natalia Kusendova definitely has support however, judging by the fact every suburban lane has at least 5-10 Conservative signs. Liberal Signs are more concentrated in high-density residential and commercial areas, so the race may be decided by demographics. NDP campaigning in the riding has been absolutely lackluster, and their candidate is mysterious, while on the other hand, the Libertarians have, rather strangely, done serious work, and I see plenty of their signs. Lastly, some fringe party ostensibly against sex-ed is running a candidate, Alex Pacis, with the exact same blue colour as the Cons. While I do not doubt they won't win above 0%, they will further confuse Conservative voters. Therefore, this riding will be one of few remaining Liberal ridings post election.
29/05/2018 The Jackal
With NDP's Poppygate and the revolving door of PC candidates here. I say the Liberals have a good shot of holding on here.
29/05/2018 The_A_man33
With the liberals being so unpopular and the NDP candidate here with the poppy controversy, the PC will likely take it.
Plus I live the riding, most folks are only somewhere between centre-right to right leaning, therefore the PCs will take it.
27/05/2018 PM
NDP candidate has handed this riding to the Liberals. Maybe the PC can do something but being on their 3rd candidate in this riding, likely not.
5/24/2018 Christopher L
This looks like the one seat in Mississauga the Liberals are most likely to hold on to. The Tanya Granic Allen mess hurt the PC organisation in the riding, and it's a somewhat more 'urban' seat because of the condo boom around Square One. Thus it's probably less Ford-friendly than Streetsville or Erin Mills. I'd expect the Liberals to hold on here, though probably in a close race.
23/05/2018 Danny
NDP candidate won't wear a poppy and the PCs running their second choice. This'll be one of ~8 Liberal seats.
21/05/2018 prognosticator15
Doug Ford might not have lost the election yet, but he surely lost this already hard-to-win riding with dismissal of Granic-Allan who inspired a small but important PC group of social conservatives and could have pulled their regional resources for her campaign. Without her running as an independent or a Trillium member, such voters may stay home on election day throughout the province or sometimes, even vote for NDP with their allegedly 'costed' populist spending. New candidate is an unknown PC activist with Russian-sounding name - this may also hurt (she is not, but few bother to read candidate promotions). Without Granic-Allan making it a somewhat competitive race based on her new stardom, Ford should abandon any hope of swiping Mississauga/ Brampton area after this episode - if such hopes ever existed. With Liberals owning progressive vote here and NDP weak, there is no doubt who wins.
12/05/2018 PM
PC's are on their 3rd candidate and still might win this riding. If they do, WOW. If the Liberals hold on here, the PC's have no one to blame but themselves. All depends if the voters just want to dump the Liberals no mater what, or this mess the PC's created in the riding is leaving a bad taste in voters mouths...
Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford announced this evening that he has removed social conservative Tanya Granic Allen as a candidate in the June 7 election. IMHO this move will help Ford sweep the province and hurt his opposition
05/05/2018 Innocent bystander
For attribution to Ontario PC Leader, Doug Ford:
Tanya Gracic Allen will no longer be a candidate for the Ontario PC Party. We are a party comprised of people with diverse views that if expressed responsibly we would respect. However, the fact is her characterization of certain issues and people has been irresponsible. Our party remains focused on defeating Kathleen Wynne and bringing relief to families across Ontario.
01/05/2018 Kyle H
Woah there, Mississauga Centre gets flipped to the PCs because of the loss of an incumbent, yet Lakeshore remains safely in Sousa's hands despite that riding being closer? I don't think so. TCTC for sure, this is among the upper tier of Missisauga ridings for the Libs, while places like Lakeshore are low hanging fruit. Heck, I'd expect Cooksville to flip before this one.
There will be a *lot* of Liberals and I suspect Dippers who push to defeat Granic Allen even in the shadow of Fordpocalypse. The centre-left chattering class rumour, or maybe more accurately scary bedtime tale, is that she'll be named Education Minister. Following Takhar's 'decision' to resign the Liberals put up a quick candidate in Bobbie Daid who is, well, not terrible - she did put in a good effort in Dufferin-Caledon in 2014, a riding the Liberals had no business coming within 8 points of winning - and at any rate is more appealing than the alternative. Hell, I'd make the trip out if I had nothing better to do.
28/04/2018 M. Lunn
I would say this is a bit premature for a PC call. Yes with the polls as they are now, PCs would be favoured, but it would only take a slight tightening to push this back in the Liberal column never mind this riding has a large Muslim population and Tanya Granic Allen's comments on them could hurt her amongst them even if Doug Ford is making inroads with them. If the Liberals continue to fall and the NDP emerges as the main opposition then will probably go PC due to vote splits as unlike the Brampton ridings, NDP is too weak to realistically be a factor here.
25/04/2018 GritBusters
The only thing I can't stand more than the OLP is Tanya Granic Allen.
Easy Liberal win here, and probably the only time in my life that I'll be happy to see it happen.
18/04/2018 A.S.
I wonder how much Tanya Granic Allen's logic in running here hinges upon the 'Granic' part, i.e. bidding for Eastern European respect in this typically Mississaugan cultural salad bowl of a seat. In fact, the depth and nature of that salad-bowlness makes Mississauga Centre, after Malton, the most naturally 'Lib-safe' of Mississauga's seats--at least on paper; trouble is, it's a Ford-compatible kind of 'Lib-safe'. So, I suppose the Libs are now hoping for a TGA 'bozo eruption' effect a la what monkey-wrenched a lot of seeming HarperCon dead certs in the mid-noughts...
27/03/2018 Stevo
Don't be fooled by the big Liberal margins in the 2014 prov and 2015 fed elections. All these dull, sprawling, non-descript Peel Region seats turn on a dime. Witness the complete blanket switch to CPC in 2011 and then back to LPC in 2015. Campaigns matter, but Kathleen Wynne has been Canada's most unpopular premier going on 2 years now. Odds strongly favour a PC pickup here and throughout Brampton and Mississauga.
27/03/2018 Tory in Dixie
Quick addendum ... Ms. Granic Allen was reported to have previously lived in this riding, which might be enough to overcome any potential charges of being a parachute candidate ... on the other hand there are reports that overturning the nomination of the now previous PC standard bearer, Angely Pacis, has not been without controversy ... so the scales in my view haven't shifted that much from my earlier 'tossup' prediction
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The post-Ford-wins polls are out, and the results are horrific for Peel Liberals, showing a net swing to the Tories of over 40 points (-18, +24).
If, and admittedly a large 'if', these results are consistent across the region, the Liberal Peel caucus goes from 7 (out of 8 seats) to nonexistent.
24/03/2018 Tory in Dixie
At this point a tossup ... news reports indicate that Ms. Granic-Allen has announced her plan to run in this riding for the PC nomination ... suppose she wins the nomination - this riding will be interesting to watch for 4 factors - 1) Mississauga Centre is not exactly a hotbed of populist or socially conservative issues 2) the 905 vote swings are traditionally very large and uniform when one incumbent party is voted out 3) I am not aware of any personal ties Ms. Granic Allen has to the riding - some party members may not be too enthused about an allegedly socially conservative 'parachute' candidate (whether that perception is fair or not) and 4) the riding itself is new and has no directly comparative history.
All this to say this might be one of the more closely fought races in the 905 Peel Region.
26/02/2018 Art
Based upon the 2016 financial reports on file at Elections Obtario, the PC party is the only mainstream party to have a final report. Likely, a PC win.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Unlike the Mississauga ridings to the south and west, this has a strong Liberal tilt so as long as the Liberals are within 10 points of the PCs they should hold this. If however the PCs obtain a double digits lead (which some polls suggest they will) they should pick this up.

Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster