Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-02 23:40:00

Constituency Profile










    Mississauga South
   Hon Charles Sousa

   (94.69% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Harinder S. Takhar

   (5.31% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):118893

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

23269 50.49%
15420 33.45%
4921 10.68%
1471 3.19%
OTHERS 1010 2.19%
Total Transposed 46092

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Mississauga South

Total Transposed43719


Total Transposed2373

Federal Election Result (2015):

Sven Spengemann
Stella Ambler **
Eric Guerbilsky
Ariana Burgener
Paul Woodworth
Dagmar Sullivan


02/06/2018 The_A_Man33
The PCs no question won the sign war and will the current opinion polls. The PCs will win this riding. The NDP however, will win other areas such as say Brampton.
29/05/2018 MF
As Joe Oliver knows, being the Finance Minister doesn't guarantee your re-election. A Mainstreet poll of the riding shows the PCs with a massive lead. It's very unlikely that the anti-Liberal in the 905 region will spare even Charles Sousa.
5/29/2018 Art
Mainstreet daily riding polls show the PCs way out in front in this riding. The endorsement by Hazel McCallion is a Hail Mary. At this point, it
5/28/2018 Innocent bystander
Liberal support has been halved, breaking heavily to the Tories over the NDP.
27/05/2018 RSG
Although they may not win the election,Sousa should be able to hang on here. He is the possibly the next leader of the Liberals in Ontario.
13/05/2018 Darryn McArthur
Sousa should hold onto Mississauga South. He has a good team that has delivered in the past and has the support and endorsement of Hazel McCallion as well as other prominent and influential residents of Mississauga. His appeal is widespread across the riding.
There is no Liberal feud here - only a disgruntled ex- MP who is disappointed his hand picked candidate was not successful..and that's history now.
Sousa has a big team of volunteer supporters who should be able to get the job done.
17/04/2018 MS
The latest Ipsos poll has the PCs at 45% in the 905 region, well ahead of the Liberals (26%) and NDP (24%). If that's anywhere close to accurate (and several other polls show basically the same thing) there's no way Charles Sousa can hold on here.
17/04/2018 Dennis M.
This could be the end of the Liberal run in this riding. People want them gone despite how popular Sousa is. The Liberals will most likely be replaced by another corrupt government under Doug Ford represented in this riding by a corrupt candidate who denied ties to the Snover Dhillon/Patrick Brown/ Rick Dystra/ Bob Stanley/ gang despite proof that was outlined in the National Post. Meet the new bosses, same as the old bosses. How sad.
15/04/2018 A.S.
Ironically, the key for the Ford Tories here might not be Clarkson/Lorne Park affluence, but the more meat-and-potatoes qualities of Lakeview, Applewood, South Cooksville, Park Royal, etc--places which, in the lean years of the 90s, might have federally opted for Reform over PC. Or conversely, the more critical Tory damper these days and in the future might not be coming from the affluent-belt Oakville end, but from the urban-gentrifying Etobicoke-Lakeshore end. But in any case, especially given Mississauga's predilection for participating in 905 sweeps, an upset of Sousa is definitely not out of the question--and it'd certainly be, to use Sousa's words, 'eye candy' for the Tories.
05/04/2018 Democracy
Just read the Snover Dhillon article in the Post regarding this riding. Tainted nomination for the PC's
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The post-Ford-wins polls are out, and the results are horrific for Peel Liberals, showing a net swing to the Tories of over 40 points (-18, +24).
If, and admittedly a large 'if', these results are consistent across the region, the Liberal Peel caucus goes from 7 (out of 8 seats) to nonexistent.
17/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The PCs are polling at 50% in Halton-Peel, a 22 point lead over the Liberals. The only way the Liberals hold on is if they show Wynne the door. And, 'Yes', I'm about to make the same comment everywhere the prediction is Liberal.
15/03/2018 Larry K .
It is going to be a challenge for the PC's to take this. It appears that Doug Ford is not a popular choice for leader and there are rumblings that Misssissauga Lakeshore may be one of those ridings investigated for a sketchy nomination as one post suggests below.
14/03/2018 Dr.Bear
Had Elliott or Mulroney won the PC leadership race, then I would say that team blue had a good shot here. Not with Ford. The educated/affluent type tend to frown on boorish populism, and I think you'll see voters holding their noses and voting for Sousa.
11/03/2018 Craig
Incredibly, with the rise of Doug Ford, this affluent riding is probably the safest Liberal seat in Mississauga (even if there is a long PC history here). Sure, Charles Sousa may not be a popular Minister of Finance in the province as a whole, but the stock market has largely done well and highly educated voters, who dominate here, tend to be the Liberals' strongest bloc these days. Any links to populism won't be popular here either.
Doug Ford is a huge liability here, which probably cannot be overcome by any candidate. The local PC nomination issues don't help either. It's areas like this that strongly rejected populist movements all over the world, and there is no reason while Ontario is any different. Sousa likely will improve his margin substantially over 2014, even if that goes against a province-wide trend.
07/03/2018 TGH
A toss up. There are rumblings and people I know have also have info on the PC nomination mess in this riding. I guess we need the new leader addresses this well before the Provincial Campaign is underway.
27/02/2018 GRP>
It doesn't matter who wins the PC Leadership, the people in this riding are done with the Liberals winning 4 in a row despite having a minister here. Period.
22/02/2018 HL 33
Yes the PC nomination was tainted. The candidate may of won by whatever number of votes, but there were several instances of voters living in a residence on an empty lot. or 12 people living in a residence? Come on! So once again, many hard working honest PC supporters may choose to sit this out despite how bad the Liberals are. Cheating is cheating.
18/02/2018 MS
I'm not sure what farcical nomination process a previous comment refers to. There are well publicized reports about other ridings, but there was never any real question about the PC process here. Rudy Cuzzetto won the nomination by over 200 votes.
The real division is in the Liberal Party, as there is a longstanding feud between Charles Sousa and former MP Paul Szabo, ever since Sousa challenged Szabo for the federal nomination in 2004.
In 2014, Sousa backed Sven Spengemann for the federal Liberal nomination against Szabo's candidate, Julie Desjardins. Spengemann won by only 19 votes, but many Liberals, led by Szabo, feel the nomination was stolen from Desjardins. Spengemann has entered into a compliance agreement with Elections Canada, admitting he exceeded the contribution limit in his nomination campaign by over $2,000.
There are also many other allegations of cheating by Sousa/Spengemann, including the submission of 350 invalid memberships, and improper use of party resources. Apparently employees of Sousa in Toronto temporarily changed their address to a parent's house in Mississauga-Lakeshore for a couple weeks just so they could vote for Spengemann.
In any event, there are many Szabo/Desjardins Liberals who will never support Charles Sousa. You can expect many to vote for Rudy Cuzzetto, the PC candidate, as the best chance to defeat him.
18/01/2018 NL345
Sousa a local favourite, but if the Liberals time is up and see a backlash on the poor economic performance, then Sousa's tenure is over. However, many PC voters may choose to sit this one out if they were involved in the farcical nomination process.
2017-12-26 seasaw
If the PC's win a majority or even a strong minority, they'll take this riding, this is actually the most Tory friendly of all Peel ridings, having said that, they still have to be in a strong winning position, otherwise it'll be a Liberal hold
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This is Charles Sousa's constituency and his role as finance minister should probably give him a slight boost, but local candidates tend to play a fairly minor role in 905 ridings. This is a fairly affluent but educated riding so rype for picking up if the PCs run on a fairly centrist platform, but if they veer too far right or the Liberals can scare people they have a hidden agenda, then could stay Liberal.

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