Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Mississauga-Malton


Prediction Changed
2017-12-16 20:19:44
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Anand, Deepak

Clarke, Nikki

Mangat, Amrit


Incumbent(s):
    Mississauga-Brampton South
   Amrit Mangat

   (48.46% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Bramalea-Gore-Malton
   Jagmeet Singh

   (33.13% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Mississauga-Streetsville
   Bob Delaney

   (18.42% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):118046


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

14470 48.27%
6525 21.76%
7303 24.36%
838 2.80%
OTHERS 845 2.82%
Total Transposed 29981

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Mississauga-Brampton South

7626
3951
2710
401
Others702
Total Transposed15390

     Bramalea-Gore-Malton

3368
1169
3634
273
Total Transposed8443

     Mississauga-Streetsville

3477
1406
958
165
Others143
Total Transposed6148


Federal Election Result (2015):

Navdeep Bains
2616559.10%
Jagdish Grewal
1170126.40%
Dianne Douglas
545012.30%
Heather Mercer
7371.70%
Naresh Tharani
2030.50%


 

15/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Based on the federal results it would look like an easy Liberal hold, but lets remember the Conservative candidate got dropped after it was too late due to his comments on gays so had that not happened would have gone heavily Liberal but not quite as big a blowout. Liberals definitely favoured, but if you have a repeat of 2011 federally where the Tories get around 45% provincewide and Liberals only 25%, then a narrow PC win is possible. If polls in the new year continue to show things tighter I will change this to Liberal.



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