Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-01 20:57:00

Constituency Profile









   Bob Delaney

   (85.14% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Mississauga-Brampton South
   Amrit Mangat

   (14.84% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Hon Indira Naidoo-Harris

   (0.01% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):118757

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

19900 51.13%
11381 29.24%
5260 13.52%
1518 3.90%
OTHERS 861 2.21%
Total Transposed 38919

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed33915

     Mississauga-Brampton South

Total Transposed5005

Federal Election Result (2015):

Gagan Sikand
Brad Butt **
Fayaz Karim
Chris Hill
Yegor Tarazevich


06/06/2018 PM
Leaning PC now like most of Mississauga is this election.
However, stranger things have happened. This is Nina's best shot at winning an election and if somehow she doesn't, can she do Mississauga-Streetsville a favour and not run anymore....
The federal Conservatives got 40% of the vote in Streetsville in 2015. They should have no problem taking it now.
02/06/2018 Dr. Bear
With models predicting numbers very similar to M-Erin Mills, I'm watching this one for a few days...I'm not ready to call it PC yet...
I feel that Wynne's announcement today will help buoy the NDP vote, as liberals flee the sinking ship. The presence of a liberal incumbent tempers this somewhat in comparison to M-EM, but this may be less of a PC shoe-in and could be an NDp surprise.
31/05/2018 PM
TCTC to the end here. Nina might finally get a win as people are just 'tired' of the Liberals. Still it will be close. 2 party race as the NDP are not strong here. The Green Party have a good candidate and is out there campaigning strongly for them. He should receive a solid share of the vote because is his effort.
18/04/2018 A.S.
Delaney's deficit boner doesn't bode the best; and it's worth noting that Brad Butt, one of the less likeable 905-caucus Harper Tories, still managed to hold 40% of the vote in 2015--so maybe at long last, after many tries and past episodes of EPP entry-plumping, Nina Tangri will have her chance. (In the meantime, I see that a Green's inherited Tangri's bygone entry-plumping title. Er, 'time for' is not a prediction; and when Green's overperformed around these parts, it's usually been with an Anglo candidate against non-Anglo opponents. So, by racially-tinged default.)
07/04/2018 PM
Interesting comment by the Liberal MPP about running deficit's. Tight enough race in this riding and in my neigbourhood, it is rubbing people the wrong way. Mr. Delaney has been out of the real world too long and that comment shows it. Try running a household budget in the red like the Liberals are doing in Ontario (and doubling your household debt at the same time), and see how soon the banks and credit companies will show up at your door Mr. Delaney. Completely out of touch with working families. This is an old tired government. Change is needed. Real change and a fresh face. Nina has been here before and lost, many times. Streetsville doesn't need another backbencher & cheerleader. Time for Streetsville to take on a new colour, GREEN.
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The post-Ford-wins polls are out, and the results are horrific for Peel Liberals, showing a net swing to the Tories of over 40 points (-18, +24).
If, and admittedly a large 'if', these results are consistent across the region, the Liberal Peel caucus goes from 7 (out of 8 seats) to nonexistent.
26/02/2018 Art
Based upon the latest financial reports (2016), available at Elections Ontario, the PC party has a huge lead on campaign finances. And the only nominated candidate at this point. PC likely.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Unlike the old boundaries which were more favourable to the Liberals, the new ones are much more favourable to the PCs. As such this will likely back the winner so if the PCs stay in the lead they should pick this up, but if the Liberals recover they could hold hold this.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
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