Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Newmarket-Aurora


Prediction Changed
2017-12-07 21:05:09
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Ballard, Chris

McGrath, Charity

Yaciuk, Bob


Incumbent(s):
    Newmarket-Aurora
   Hon Chris Ballard

   (99.08% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    York-Simcoe
   Julia Munro

   (0.92% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):109457


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

19062 44.12%
15865 36.72%
5157 11.94%
1749 4.05%
OTHERS 1371 3.17%
Total Transposed 43205

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Newmarket-Aurora

18859
15664
5087
1731
Others1369
Total Transposed42710

     York-Simcoe

203
201
70
18
Others2
Total Transposed494


Federal Election Result (2015):

Kyle Peterson
2550845.20%
Lois Brown **
2405742.60%
Yvonne Kelly
48068.50%
Vanessa Long
13312.40%
Dorian Baxter
7621.30%


 

21/12/2017 Gabbith
75.98.19.133
The PC nomination controversies appear to have hit here harder than other ridings. Also a strong Liberal incumbent here. Wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being the only Liberal seat in the 905 after this election.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
As an outerlying 905 riding, this only goes Liberal in very bad elections for the Tories as the last provincial and federal one were and even then in both cases they were very narrow Liberal wins, so barring a major mess up, this should be an easy pick up.
06/12/2017 Kathy
99.228.107.135
This is one of those seats the PCs barely lost in 2014 that with a better provincial performance they will easily win back.



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