Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Niagara Falls

Prediction Changed
2017-12-16 20:20:00

Constituency Profile









    Niagara Falls
   Wayne Gates

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):128357

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

7329 14.39%
16702 32.80%
24131 47.39%
1724 3.39%
OTHERS 1037 2.04%
Total Transposed 50923

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Niagara Falls

Total Transposed50923

Federal Election Result (2015):

Rob Nicholson **
Ron Planche
Carolynn Ioannoni
Steven Soos


04/06/2018 Guest Guesterson
I wonder why no one wants to discuss this riding...
Anyway this will stay NDP with the current numbers, the only question will be what the number will grow to. From 47 to what? Hamilton-Niagara while grouped in with the '905' due to s shared area code, and geographic proximity, is really more economically/culturally/demographically similar to Rustbelt-ish SW Ontario, and the NDP is doing better than ever there.
29/04/2018 A.S.
It wasn't just incumbent strength helping Kim Craitor in 2011, it was Fort Erie Mayor Wayne Redekop running for the NDP and splitting the opposition as well--and conversely, weak Lib/strong NDP candidacies helped Rob Nicholson hang on federally in 2015; so, inherent strengths and weaknesses for all parties have a history of being overrated or underrated out Niagara way. As it now stands, Niagara Falls ought to nearly be Oshawa's match as a left-right battle for the populist soul--though NF at least has the proximity of Kormos' ghost going for it, never mind Gates' own appeal, while Oshawa's more 905-sprawl insular. But it'd take a Tory party running on 90-seat overdrive to really topple Gates--which is exactly what some polls are showing. Hey, if Peter Stoffer could be toppled federally, *no* trademark-mustachio'd NDPer is immune...
19/03/2018 jeff316
Gates holds this riding - but only as the NDP pours in resources in the last few days to hold 9-11 incumbents in what will be a provincial rout second only to the Rae loss.
16/03/2018 Craig
Take away Wayne Gates, replace by generic candidates and this would almost certainly be a strong PC pickup, buoyed by working class voters' anger with Wynne and the establishment and jumping to Doug Ford. However, he is extremely popular here (with a Peter Kormos-like agenda and personality) and that alone should insulate him, keeping Niagara Falls orange.
Since the Liberals will likely be irrelevant here and ending up in single digits, the PC's would need at least 45-48% to top Gates, and they have rarely scored that high even in their best days. Even though Niagara Falls is only 120 km from Toronto, it behaves a lot more like a southwestern Ontario Rust Belt-type seat these days. Given the strength of Wayne Gates, he should overcome the Ford surge by himself.
13/01/2018 Niagara Guy
With 4 years of incumbency under his belt and a social media presence that is off the charts compared to the typical MPP, the NDP's Wayne Gates is in a very good position to hold this riding. His only real challenge will come from the Tories, but the PC party would need to be polling around 50% province wide in order to overcome the personal popularity of this energizer bunny of an MPP.
08/01/2018 MF
Wayne Gates is personally popular in Niagara and should be easily re-elected. The Liberals are a nonfactor in this riding.
17/12/2017 KXS
This is a Wayne Gates riding, not an NDP riding. There's also been some controversy with the PC nomination process here.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
This is a riding where personal candidates can often outperform their party. So Wayne Gates despite running in a not traditionally NDP friendly riding could win on personal popularity. Kim Craitor held this in 2011 largely due to his popularity as it probably would have otherwise gone PC. Likewise Rob Nicholson won this in 2004 and held it in 2015 on personal popularity as it likely would have gone Liberal otherwise. So while with a generic candidate this would favour the PCs, Wayne Gates popularity might be enough to hold this but too early to tell.

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