Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Niagara Falls

Prediction Changed
2017-12-16 20:20:01

Constituency Profile



Gates, Wayne

McShane, Chuck

    Niagara Falls
   Wayne Gates

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):128357

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

7329 14.39%
16702 32.80%
24131 47.39%
1724 3.39%
OTHERS 1037 2.04%
Total Transposed 50923

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Niagara Falls

Total Transposed50923

Federal Election Result (2015):

Rob Nicholson **
Ron Planche
Carolynn Ioannoni
Steven Soos


13/01/2018 Niagara Guy
With 4 years of incumbency under his belt and a social media presence that is off the charts compared to the typical MPP, the NDP's Wayne Gates is in a very good position to hold this riding. His only real challenge will come from the Tories, but the PC party would need to be polling around 50% province wide in order to overcome the personal popularity of this energizer bunny of an MPP.
08/01/2018 MF
Wayne Gates is personally popular in Niagara and should be easily re-elected. The Liberals are a nonfactor in this riding.
17/12/2017 KXS
This is a Wayne Gates riding, not an NDP riding. There's also been some controversy with the PC nomination process here.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
This is a riding where personal candidates can often outperform their party. So Wayne Gates despite running in a not traditionally NDP friendly riding could win on personal popularity. Kim Craitor held this in 2011 largely due to his popularity as it probably would have otherwise gone PC. Likewise Rob Nicholson won this in 2004 and held it in 2015 on personal popularity as it likely would have gone Liberal otherwise. So while with a generic candidate this would favour the PCs, Wayne Gates popularity might be enough to hold this but too early to tell.

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