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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Niagara Falls


Prediction Changed
2017-12-16 20:20:01
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Gates, Wayne

McShane, Chuck


Incumbent(s):
    Niagara Falls
   Wayne Gates

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):128357


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

7329 14.39%
16702 32.80%
24131 47.39%
1724 3.39%
OTHERS 1037 2.04%
Total Transposed 50923

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Niagara Falls

7329
16702
24131
1724
Others1037
Total Transposed50923


Federal Election Result (2015):

Rob Nicholson **
2723542.10%
Ron Planche
2231834.50%
Carolynn Ioannoni
1352520.90%
Steven Soos
16332.50%


 

13/01/2018 Niagara Guy
99.230.53.185
With 4 years of incumbency under his belt and a social media presence that is off the charts compared to the typical MPP, the NDP's Wayne Gates is in a very good position to hold this riding. His only real challenge will come from the Tories, but the PC party would need to be polling around 50% province wide in order to overcome the personal popularity of this energizer bunny of an MPP.
08/01/2018 MF
69.159.31.101
Wayne Gates is personally popular in Niagara and should be easily re-elected. The Liberals are a nonfactor in this riding.
17/12/2017 KXS
69.157.99.21
This is a Wayne Gates riding, not an NDP riding. There's also been some controversy with the PC nomination process here.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
This is a riding where personal candidates can often outperform their party. So Wayne Gates despite running in a not traditionally NDP friendly riding could win on personal popularity. Kim Craitor held this in 2011 largely due to his popularity as it probably would have otherwise gone PC. Likewise Rob Nicholson won this in 2004 and held it in 2015 on personal popularity as it likely would have gone Liberal otherwise. So while with a generic candidate this would favour the PCs, Wayne Gates popularity might be enough to hold this but too early to tell.



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